河北省耕地资源安全评价及预测

发布时间：2018-06-20 05:38

本文选题：耕地资源安全 + TOPSIS模型　；参考：《土壤通报》2017年05期

【摘要】：通过对河北省2005~2015年的耕地资源安全状况进行了评价,并且对未来11年的耕地资源的安全情况进行了预测分析,以此作为区域耕地资源可持续利用的依据。本文基从数量、质量、生态安全三个方面构建了耕地资源安全评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算出评价因子的权重以及运用TOPSIS模型计算耕地资源安全值,采用无偏灰色预测模型对耕地资源的安全情况进行了预测,并利用障碍度模型计算了各指标的障碍度,从而确定出主要障碍因子。结果表明:(1)2005~2015年河北省耕地资源综合安全值呈缓慢上升趋势,并且从不安全等级上升到临界安全等级;(2)预测结果表明,2016~2026年河北省耕地资源安全值虽然缓慢上升,但一直处在临界安全等级;(3)通过运用障碍度模型计算出未来11年各项指标的障碍度,得出影响河北省耕地资源安全的主要因素主要集中在农业生产以及生态环境等方面。总体来看,2005~2015年河北省的耕地资源安全状况较差,未来的耕地资源安全状况的改善还需要政府通过制定有利于农业发展的政策措施,完善农业设施的建设和土地的利用管理等。
[Abstract]:This paper evaluates the security situation of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2015, and forecasts and analyzes the security situation of cultivated land resources in the next 11 years, so as to serve as the basis for the sustainable utilization of regional cultivated land resources. This paper constructs the evaluation index system of cultivated land resources security from three aspects of quantity, quality and ecological security, calculates the weight of evaluation factors by entropy weight method and calculates the safety value of cultivated land resources by using TOPSIS model. The unbiased grey forecasting model is used to predict the security of cultivated land resources and the obstacle degree of each index is calculated by using the obstacle degree model to determine the main obstacle factors. The results showed that the comprehensive safety value of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province increased slowly from 2005 to 2015, and increased from unsafe level to critical security level. The forecast results showed that the safety value of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province increased slowly from 2016 to 2026. However, it has been in the critical safety grade. (3) by using the barrier degree model to calculate the obstacle degree of each index in the next 11 years, it is concluded that the main factors affecting the security of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province are mainly in the aspects of agricultural production and ecological environment. In general, the security of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2015 is poor, and the improvement of the security situation of cultivated land resources in the future requires the government to perfect the construction of agricultural facilities and the management of land use by formulating policies and measures conducive to the development of agriculture.
【作者单位】：河北农业大学资源与环境科学学院;河北农业大学国土资源学院;
【基金】：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201311060)资助
【分类号】：F323.211

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