中国林业科技进步的时空分异特征及经济增长效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 19:04

本文选题：科技型林业 + 生产效率　；参考：《江西财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：林业是集社会效益、生态效益和经济效益为一体的特殊产业,更是为人们的生存空间提供生态安全保障,因而其发展也一直受到国家及全社会的关注。林业除提供木材等基础原材料外,更为重要的功能是吸碳吐氧,为社会提供生态需求,特别是新时期倡导的生态文明建设,更离不开林业的稳健发展。现代林业是科技型林业,要实现林业的稳健发展,就必须利用先进的林业科技推动林业的快速发展。而如今林业科技供给与林业发展需求不均衡,林业生产效率不高等原因,在一定程度上影响林业的发展。因此,论文对近些年林业的生产效率进行了时空差异分析,以及探究了林业科技进步对林业经济的贡献率,并为此提出一些可行性建议。在探究林业生产效率的过程中,文章采用2002-2011年全国31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,运用数据包络分析(DEA)模型的Malmquist指数法,对我国这九年间的林业生产效率进行了时空分析,以此来探究林业科技进步给林业生产效率带来的变化。结果显示:从时间上来看,2003-2011年,全国林业各生产率指数都发生了变化,全要素生产率增长较快的是2004年和2005年,技术效率增长较快的2005年和2009年,规模效率增长较快的2004年和2009年,技术进步增长较快的是2004年和2008年;林业全要素生产率、林业技术效率、林业规模效率以及林业技术进步率平均增长率分别为-15.1%、-9.7%、-10.2%和-6%,表明期间各林业生产效率整体未能达到最优,并且相差程度依次为全要素生产率林业规模效率林业技术效率林业技术创新;从空间上来看,2003-2011年,不同地区在这九年间的各生产效率值也发生了不同程度的变化。从分省份的情况来看,林业各生产效率指标较好的省份有:安徽、福建、江西、青海、宁夏及新疆;综合效率增长较快的是新疆、福建和安徽,技术效率增长较快的是新疆、山东、福建,规模效率增长较快的是山东、安徽和新疆,技术进步较快的是甘肃、浙江和福建。从分区来看,林业各生产率指标变化呈现增长趋势的只有西北地区;林业综合生产效率退化较快的是东北地区和华北地区,有小幅下滑的是华东地区、中南地区和西南地区;林业技术效率和规模效率下降较大的是东北和华北地区,华东地区、中南地区和西南地区也有小幅下滑;林业技术进步的区域有华东地区和西北地区,增幅只有2.8%和3.5%,华北和东北地区林业技术退化较大,中南和西南地区有小幅度退化。在测算林业科技进步对林业经济增长的贡献率时,文章基于索洛余值法,在扩展的C-D生产函数中引入林业人力资本累积和林业产业结构变动等因素,从广义的林业科技进步贡献率中进一步分离出林业产业结构变动效应、林业人力资本累积效应因素的影响,探究中国林业科技进步对林业经济增长的影响规律。结果表明:林业人力资本累积效应对贡献率保持在9%左右;林业产业结构变动效应贡献率波动性较为平稳,贡献率也偏小,近些年林业产业结构的转变并没有对中国林业经济增长产生显著作用;林业固定资产投资平均贡献率为61.47%,表明中国林业经济增长模式在很大程度上还是依赖林业固定资产投资;狭义林业科技进步平均贡献率为15.34%,其对中国林业经济增长的贡献率依然偏低,对林业经济增长作用偏弱的态势没有发生显著变化,并且其贡献率的稳定性十分脆弱。文章最后,为促进科技型林业的发展提出了相关的政策及建议,实现林业经济更快更好地发展。
[Abstract]:Forestry is a special industry which integrates social benefits, ecological benefits and economic benefits. It also provides ecological security for the living space of people. Therefore, the development of forestry has always been paid attention to by the state and the whole society. In addition to providing basic raw materials such as wood, the more important function is to absorb carbon and oxygen to provide ecological needs for the society. In particular, the construction of ecological civilization advocated in the new period can not be separated from the steady development of forestry. Modern forestry is a scientific and technological forestry. To achieve the steady development of forestry, the rapid development of forestry must be promoted by advanced forestry technology. To a certain extent, the development of forestry is affected to a certain extent. Therefore, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal differences in the production efficiency of forestry in recent years, and probes into the contribution rate of forestry scientific and technological progress to the forestry economy, and puts forward some feasible suggestions. In the process of exploring the efficiency of forestry production, the article adopts 31 provinces in 2002-2011 years (city, self). The panel data of the governing area, using the Malmquist index method of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, carried out a spatio-temporal analysis of the forestry production efficiency of China during the nine years to explore the changes in forestry production efficiency. The results show that, from the time point of view, the national forestry productivity indices have occurred in 2003-2011 years. In 2004 and 2005, the growth of total factor productivity increased rapidly in 2005 and 2009. In 2004 and 2009, the scale efficiency increased rapidly in 2004 and 2009. The rapid growth of technological progress was in 2004 and 2009; the total factor productivity of forestry, the efficiency of forestry technology, the efficiency of forestry scale and the average rate of forestry technological progress were average. The growth rate is -15.1%, -9.7%, -10.2% and -6% respectively, indicating that the overall efficiency of forestry production failed to achieve the best in the period, and the difference degree is in turn the forestry technology efficiency forestry technology innovation of full factor productivity forestry scale efficiency. In 2003-2011 years, the production efficiency values of different regions in these nine years have also occurred. In the case of the provinces, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Xinjiang, Fujian and Anhui are the provinces with better productive efficiency indicators. The rapid growth of the efficiency is Xinjiang, Shandong and Fujian. The rapid progress is Gansu, Zhejiang and Fujian. From the point of view, the growth trend of the productivity index of forestry is only in the northwest region; the fast degradation of forestry comprehensive production efficiency is in the northeast and North China, with a small decline in East China, middle and South and southwest, and the efficiency of forestry technology and the efficiency of scale. In the northeast and North China areas, the eastern and South China areas and the south-west region also have a small decline. The area of forestry technology progress is East China and northwest, the growth rate is only 2.8% and 3.5%, the forestry technology degradation in North and Northeast China is great, and the middle and South and southwest regions have small degeneration. The contribution rate of industry economic growth is based on the residual value method of Solow, introducing the accumulation of forestry human capital and the change of forestry industrial structure in the extended C-D production function, and further separating the change effect of forestry industrial structure from the contribution rate of forestry scientific and technological progress, the influence of the accumulation effect factors of forestry human capital and exploring the influence of the accumulation effect factors of forestry human capital. The effect of forestry scientific and technological progress on forestry economic growth shows that the contribution rate of the accumulation effect of forestry human capital remains about 9%, the volatility of the contribution rate of the forestry industrial structure changes is relatively stable and the contribution rate is small. In recent years, the transformation of forestry industrial structure has not produced a significant effect on the growth of China's forestry economy. The average contribution rate of the investment in forestry fixed assets is 61.47%, which indicates that China's forestry economic growth model is largely dependent on the investment in forestry fixed assets; the average contribution rate of the narrow sense forestry scientific and technological progress is 15.34%, its contribution to China's forestry economic growth is still low and the role of forestry economic growth is weak Change, stability and its contribution rate is very fragile. Finally, the relevant policy and suggestions for promoting the development of science and technology of forestry, forestry economy to develop faster and better.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.2

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