周口市耕地集约利用及其对粮食产量影响的评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-05 14:01

【摘要】：农业作为三大产业中的第一产业,是国民经济发展的基础,而粮食生产作为农业生产中的重要部分,是基础的基础。如果没有粮食的稳定供给,就没有人们基本的生活保障和国家的和谐稳定。2015年1月,国务院印发了关于建立健全粮食安全省长责任制的若干意见,意见中对建立健全粮食安全省长责任制作了全面的部署,并要求各省级政府部门要承担起所属区域粮食安全的责任,全面加强粮食的生产、储备和流通能力,促进粮食产业健康发展,保障国家的粮食安全。在对粮食生产的因素当中,耕地无疑占据了重要的地位,耕地是粮食产量的命根子,没有了耕地资源,粮食生产也就成了无源之水无本之木。近年来,我国人口保持了稳定的增长速度,人口众多,耕地资源有限,再加上城市化的不断深入,使耕地资源面临的形势更加的严峻。再加上在当今耕地利用的过程中,普遍存在着一些问题,如利用效率低下,产出能力不高,耕地潜力未能充分发挥等。如何合理利用有限的耕地资源,实现耕地集约利用,稳定粮食产量,保障国家的粮食安全,实现和谐稳定可持续的发展,是我们面临和需要解决的问题。因此对一个地区的耕地利用和粮食发展情况进行分析,研究两者之间的存在关系,对于政府了解当地发展实际,制定合理的符合农业发展的法规政策,保护耕地和农民利益,有着重要的意义。河南省是我国的粮食产量大省,2013年河南省粮食产量为5713.7万吨,占全国粮食总产量的9.4%,仅次于黑龙江省,产量地位居于全国第二位,而周口市作为河南省第一产粮大市,2013年周口市粮食总产793.87万吨,占到全省的13.9%,可见周口市在河南省的粮食发展地位中有着举足轻重的作用。本文以河南省周口市作为研究区域,对河南省的耕地利用情况、耕地集约程度以及耕地集约对粮食产量的影响进行了定性与定量的分析研究。首先是对耕地、耕地集约利用、粮食生产能力、可持续利用等相关的概念进行了论述说明,在研究周口市区域发展概况的基础上,依据河南省统计年鉴,周口市统计年鉴,2013年周口市国民经济和社会发展统计公报以及相关部门提供的数据资料等,建立评价指标和评价体系。以Excel作为工具,运用极大极小值法将指标进行标准化处理,并利用熵值法确立权重,然后依靠加权模型计算周口市及各个县市的耕地集约水平。最后借助于STIRPAT模型,运用spss19.0,把各个因素进行相关性、主成份以及最小二乘法分析,分析耕地集约水平对粮食产量的影响程度,了解周口市及各个地区的耕地集约,以及粮食产量对耕地集约的依赖程度。研究分析结果表明:(1)耕地集约水平方面,周口市耕地集约程度处于中等水平。2003年周口市耕地集约度为0.216,到了2012年,周口市耕地集约水平为0.36。由此看来,周口市的耕地集约利用水平处于逐渐提高的状态,且除个别县市之外,其他各个县市之间差异不明显,集约水平发展程度比较均衡。在耕地利用方面,仍然是以家庭承包为主,利用比较分散,规模性不强,耕地生态环境有待提高,受自然条件影响因素较强等;在粮食产量方面,周口市历年的粮食产量处于稳步上升的状态,夏粮产量远远高于秋粮产量。一些惠农措施的实施,以及粮食价格的稳定上涨,一定程度上带动了农民粮食种植的积极性。(2)耕地集约发展水平对粮食产量的影响较为显著。通过运用模型和SPSS分析,结论表明,当耕地集约水平每增加1%的时候,粮食产量将增加0.181%,粮食播种面积每增加1%的时候,粮食产量将增加0.219%;化肥施用量增加1%的投入,粮食产量将会增加0.254%;耕地集约水平对粮食产量的影响较为显著。因此,在周口市以后耕地利用和发展过程中,要不断提高农民的耕地集约意识,充分发挥耕地潜能,同时也要对粮食价格实施保护价格,保障农民收益,这样才能提高农民的种粮积极性,从而做到粮食播种面积不减少,耕地投入不降低等。根据分析的结果,依据周口市耕地利用和粮食发展实际,论文对周口市耕地利用和粮食生产方面提出了几点策略,如要切实保护耕地,保障粮食种植面积;要加大耕地的科技资金投入,提高耕地效益;要试点土地流转工作,实现规模经营;要注意对耕地生态的保护,建设耕地生态文明等。
[Abstract]:As the first industry in the three major industries, agriculture is the foundation of the development of the national economy, and the grain production is an important part of the agricultural production. It is the foundation of the agriculture production. Without the stable supply of grain, there is no basic living guarantee and the harmonious stability of the country in January. The State Council issued a sound on the establishment and improvement of grain security in January. Some opinions on the responsibility system of the whole provincial governor made a comprehensive deployment of the responsibility for establishing and improving the responsibility of the governor of grain security, and required the provincial government departments to assume responsibility for the food security of their own regions, to comprehensively strengthen the production, reserve and circulation of grain, to promote the healthy development of the grain industry and to ensure the national food security. Among the factors of grain production, arable land has undoubtedly occupied an important position, cultivated land is the root of grain production, no arable land, and grain production has become a passive water. In recent years, China's population has maintained a stable growth rate, a large population, limited cultivated land resources, and the continuous deepening of urbanization to make arable land. There are some problems in the process of the utilization of cultivated land, such as the low efficiency, low productivity, and the failure to give full play to the potential of cultivated land. How to make rational use of limited cultivated land resources, realize the utilization of cultivated land, stabilize the grain yield, and ensure the national food security, It is a problem that we are facing and needs to be solved in a harmonious, stable and sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the situation of cultivated land use and grain development in a region, to study the relationship between the two, to understand the actual situation of the local development, to formulate a reasonable regulation and policy that conforms to the agricultural development, and to protect the interests of the cultivated land and the farmers. Important significance. Henan province is China's big grain production province. In 2013, Henan province's grain output was 57 million 137 thousand tons, accounting for 9.4% of the total grain output of the country. Second only to Heilongjiang Province, the output status was second in the country, while Zhoukou was the first grain producing city in Henan, and the total grain output of Zhoukou was 7 million 938 thousand and 700 tons in 2013, which accounted for 13.9% of the province. Zhoukou city has an important role in the status of grain development in Henan province. This paper, taking Zhoukou city of Henan Province as the research area, carries out qualitative and quantitative analysis and Research on the utilization of cultivated land in Henan Province, the intensive degree of cultivated land and the influence of cultivated land intensivism on Grain Yield. On the basis of studying the general situation of regional development in Zhoukou, according to the statistical yearbook of Henan Province, the statistical yearbook of Zhoukou City, the statistical bulletin of the national economic and social development of Zhoukou and the data provided by relevant departments in 2013, the evaluation indexes and evaluation bodies are established on the basis of the research on the general situation of the regional development of food production and sustainable utilization. Using Excel as a tool, using the maximum minimum method to standardize the index, and use the entropy method to establish the weight, and then rely on the weighted model to calculate the intensive level of the cultivated land in Zhoukou and the counties and cities. Finally, by using the STIRPAT model and using spss19.0, the correlation, principal component and the least square method are used to analyze the factors. The influence degree of cultivated land intensive level on grain yield was analyzed, the intensivism of cultivated land in Zhoukou and all regions and the dependence of grain yield on cultivated land intensivism. The results showed that: (1) the intensive level of cultivated land in Zhoukou was in the middle level of.2003, the intensive degree of cultivated land in Zhoukou was 0.216, to 2012. In the year, the intensive level of cultivated land in Zhoukou was 0.36., so the intensive use level of arable land in Zhoukou was gradually improved. Besides, in addition to some counties and cities, the differences between the other counties and cities were not obvious, and the intensive level of development was more balanced. Not strong, the ecological environment of cultivated land needs to be improved and influenced by natural conditions. In terms of grain output, the grain output of Zhoukou has been steadily rising, and the production of summer grain is far higher than that of autumn grain production. The implementation of some measures for agricultural benefits and the steady rise in grain prices have led to the grain planting of farmers to some extent. (2) the intensive development level of cultivated land has a significant impact on grain yield. Through the use of model and SPSS analysis, the conclusion shows that when the intensive level of cultivated land is increased by 1%, the grain yield will increase by 0.181%, the grain yield will increase by 0.219% when the grain sown area is increased by 1%, and the fertilizer application amount will increase by 1%, and the grain yield will be increased. The quantity will increase by 0.254%, the intensive level of cultivated land has a significant influence on the grain yield. Therefore, in the process of utilization and development of cultivated land in Zhoukou, we should constantly improve the intensive consciousness of the farmers' arable land and give full play to the potential of cultivated land. At the same time, the price of grain should be protected and the farmers' income is guaranteed, in order to improve the farmers' grain. According to the results of the analysis, according to the results of the analysis, the paper puts forward some strategies for the utilization of cultivated land and grain production in Zhoukou, such as the protection of cultivated land, the area of grain planting, and the scientific and technological capital of cultivated land, according to the actual situation of cultivated land utilization and grain development in Zhoukou. Input, improve the efficiency of cultivated land; to pilot land transfer work, to achieve large-scale management; to pay attention to the protection of cultivated land ecology, the construction of cultivated land ecological civilization.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211;F326.11

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