宏观经济环境对中国农业上市公司成长性影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-22 09:11

【摘要】：农业乃是促进我国经济发展的基础性产业,因其先天的弱势性,要使其快速发展较为困难,因此,将农业产业同证券市场相结合,创设农业上市公司、实现农业的产业化发展,乃不二之选。农业上市公司主要是针对农业的产业化结构调整、市场化经营管理方面进行规划与实践,不仅有利于提升我国农产品质量,增加国际竞争力,实现农产品创收,而且能够进一步推动我国农业产业现代化的发展进程。毫无疑问,作为市场主体的一员,农业上市公司的发展势必会受到市场经济波动的影响,目前国内外基于宏观经济角度考察农业上市公司企业成长的相关研究较为缺乏,尤其是在农业上市公司成长能力评估方面,多集中在公司治理、资产质量、多元化经营等方面。农业上市公司的成长能力对公司的发展和投资价值起着很重要的作用,而成长能力不止受到企业规模、盈利能力等企业内部因素的影响,还会受到外部经济环境的影响。相应地,根据一定时期内公司业绩基点详细描绘出的成长能力也可作为公司决策与股东投资的主要依据,对于证券市场监管、国家宏观经济发展具有重要意义。本文研究是基于我国宏观经济因素对农业企业的影响,以2009—2013年的中国农业上市公司相关数据为研究样本,通过经济增长、政府财政支出、市场景气指数、实际利率水平等宏观经济因素构建指标,运用Pearson相关性检验方法及多元线性回归模型,详细分析了各类宏观经济要素对于农业上市公司的不同影响,总结归纳出对农业上市公司具有重要影响力的宏观经济要素指标,进而提出对宏观经济因素的考虑在农业上市公司成长能力评估中的建议,具有一定的理论与现实意义。实证结果表明,CPI和贷款基准利率两项指标对于农业上市公司成长能力的影响较小,究其原因,主要是因为农业上市公司的设立与发展主要得益于国家政策的倾斜与扶持,因而这两者的变动对其资本结构的影响不大。宏观经济景气指数和商品零售价格指数的解释性要比CPI和贷款基准利率的解释强度高,尤其是宏观经济景气指数,在模型中有着显著作用,即农业上市公司成长过程中要对宏观经济走向尤为关注,而美元兑换人民币平均汇率也对其成长能力有积极的影响。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the basic industry to promote the economic development of our country. Because of its inherent weakness, it is difficult to make it develop rapidly. Therefore, it is difficult to combine agricultural industry with the securities market, to create agricultural listed companies and to realize the industrialization development of agriculture. It is the only choice. Agricultural listed companies mainly aim at the readjustment of agricultural industrialization structure and the planning and practice of market-oriented management, which is not only conducive to improving the quality of agricultural products in China, increasing international competitiveness, and realizing the income generation of agricultural products. And can further promote our agricultural industry modernization of the development process. There is no doubt that as a member of the market, the development of agricultural listed companies is bound to be affected by market economic fluctuations. At present, there is a lack of relevant research on the growth of agricultural listed companies at home and abroad based on the macroeconomic perspective. Especially in the agricultural listed companies growth capacity evaluation, mainly focused on corporate governance, asset quality, diversification and so on. The growth ability of agricultural listed companies plays an important role in the development and investment value of the company, and the growth ability is not only affected by the internal factors such as enterprise size and profitability, but also by the external economic environment. Accordingly, the growth ability described in detail on the basis of company performance in a certain period can also be used as the main basis for corporate decision-making and shareholders' investment, which is of great significance to the supervision of the securities market and the development of the state's macro-economy. This study is based on the impact of macroeconomic factors on agricultural enterprises, taking the relevant data of Chinese agricultural listed companies from 2009-2013 as a sample, through economic growth, government financial expenditure, market boom index. Based on the Pearson correlation test method and the multiple linear regression model, this paper analyzes in detail the different effects of various macroeconomic factors on agricultural listed companies, such as the real interest rate level and other macroeconomic factors. In this paper, the author sums up the indexes of macroeconomic factors which have important influence on agricultural listed companies, and then puts forward the suggestions of considering macroeconomic factors in the evaluation of agricultural listed companies' growth ability, which has certain theoretical and practical significance. The empirical results show that CPI and benchmark interest rate have little effect on the growth ability of agricultural listed companies. The main reason is that the establishment and development of agricultural listed companies mainly benefit from the national policies. As a result, these two changes to its capital structure has little impact. The explanation of macroeconomic boom index and commodity retail price index is higher than that of CPI and loan benchmark interest rate. In particular, macroeconomic boom index plays a significant role in the model. That is to say, agricultural listed companies should pay more attention to the trend of macro-economy in their growth process, and the average exchange rate of US dollar to RMB also has a positive effect on their growth ability.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F324

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