甘南黄河水源补给区土地利用与生态系统服务价值变化研究
发布时间：2018-10-04 20:12
【摘要】：本文在分析甘南黄河水源补给区土地利用动态变化特征的基础上,构建了研究区生态系统服务价值评价模型,合理筛选九项评价指标,重点对其中六项指标进行功能性系数调整,评估了研究区15年间各生态系统服务价值的动态变化过程,并应用相关分析和通径分析的数学方法,探讨了研究区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值变化的影响机制,得出如下结论:(1)土地利用变化分析结果表明:研究区1997年-2012年耕地面积处于波动下降趋势,林地、牧草地、交通用地和居民点及工矿用地面积,基本处增长的趋势,水域面积呈现横向S型波动变化。从土地利用程度变化来看,研究区在研究期间综合指数整体呈现负增长,即研究期间研究区土地利用处于调整期,城市发展速度平缓。研究区内土地利用方式比较单一,结构多样性程度较低,在研究期期间,土地利用结构信息熵值不断降低,结构向有序方向发展。(2)生态系统服务价值变化研究结果表明:研究区生态系统服务总价值在1997-1999年期间较为平缓,1999-2006年期间平缓波动上升,2006-2009年期间波动下降,趋势明显,在2009-2012年期间,呈现明显上升趋势,研究期15年间,生态系统服务总价值变化总量达6亿3千万元。结合研究区自然环境、社会发展及政策变动情况,表明研究区生态系统服务价值变化对研究区社会经济发展及相关政策变动响应敏感。(3)研究区各土地利用类型对生态系统服务价值变差贡献率分析结果表明:林地和牧草地对研究区生态系统总价值变化贡献率最大,其变化趋势与总价值变化趋势基本吻合,其次为耕地和水域,建设用地和未利用地对研究区生态系统服务总价值变化的贡献率最小。(4)研究区各土地利用类型、单一生态系统服务价值及研究区生态系统服务总价值相关分析结果表明:各土地利用类型之间,各土地利用类型和单项服务价值之间,各土地利用类型和区域服务总价值之间均存在较好的相关性,相关系数值普遍较高,多呈强相关或中等相关,较适合进行相关分析。(5)研究区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值通径分析结果表明:直接作用影响从大到小排序依次为林地、牧草地、耕地,水域、建设用地。林地、牧草地、耕地和水域对研究区生态系统服务总价值起积极的直接作用,建设用地对研究区生态系统服务总价值起到消极的直接作用。间接作用的影响从大到小排序依次为耕地、水域、林地、牧草地、建设用地。林地和建设用地对研究区生态系统服务起到积极的间接作用,耕地、牧草地和水域对研究区生态系统服务起到消极的间接作用。
[Abstract]:On the basis of analyzing the dynamic change of land use in Gannan Yellow River water supply area, this paper constructs an evaluation model of ecosystem service value in the study area, and reasonably selects nine evaluation indexes. By adjusting the functional coefficient of six of the indexes, the dynamic process of the service value of each ecosystem in the study area was evaluated, and the mathematical methods of correlation analysis and path analysis were applied. The influence mechanism of land use change on ecosystem service value in the study area is discussed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the results of land use change analysis show that the cultivated land area in the study area is in the trend of fluctuation from 1997 to 2012, and the forestland and pasture land. The area of traffic land, residential land and industrial and mining land, the basic increasing trend, the area of water area showed a lateral S-type fluctuation. From the point of view of the change of land use degree, the comprehensive index of the study area shows negative growth during the study period, that is, the land use in the study area is in the period of adjustment and the speed of urban development is slow during the study period. In the study area, the land use pattern is single and the degree of structural diversity is low. During the study period, the entropy of land use structure information decreases continuously. (2) the results show that the total value of ecosystem services in the study area increased slightly during 1997-1999 and decreased in 2006-2009. During the period of 2009-2012, the value of ecosystem services increased obviously, and the total value of ecosystem services changed to 630 million yuan in the period of 15 years. Combining the natural environment, social development and policy changes in the study area, The results show that the change of ecosystem service value in the study area is sensitive to the social and economic development and related policy changes in the study area. (3) the analysis of the contribution rate of different land use types to ecosystem service value in the study area shows that: And forage land contributed the most to the change of total ecosystem value in the study area. The change trend is basically consistent with the change trend of total value, followed by cultivated land and water area, and the contribution rate of construction land and unused land to the change of total value of ecosystem services in the study area is the least. (4) each land use type in the study area; The results of the correlation analysis between the value of single ecosystem services and the total value of ecosystem services in the study area show that: among the land use types, between each land use type and between individual service values, There is a good correlation between each land use type and the total value of regional service, the correlation coefficient value is generally high, most of them are strong correlation or medium correlation. (5) the path analysis of the value of land use change to ecosystem services in the study area showed that the order of direct effect from big to small was forest land, forage land, cultivated land, water area and construction land. Forest land, forage land, cultivated land and water area play a positive and direct role on the total value of ecosystem services in the study area, and construction land plays a negative direct role on the total value of ecosystem services in the study area. The order of indirect effect from big to small is cultivated land, water area, woodland, forage land and construction land. Forest land and construction land play a positive and indirect role in ecosystem service in the study area, while cultivated land, forage land and water area play a negative indirect role in ecosystem service in the study area.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X171
本文编号：2251720
[Abstract]:On the basis of analyzing the dynamic change of land use in Gannan Yellow River water supply area, this paper constructs an evaluation model of ecosystem service value in the study area, and reasonably selects nine evaluation indexes. By adjusting the functional coefficient of six of the indexes, the dynamic process of the service value of each ecosystem in the study area was evaluated, and the mathematical methods of correlation analysis and path analysis were applied. The influence mechanism of land use change on ecosystem service value in the study area is discussed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the results of land use change analysis show that the cultivated land area in the study area is in the trend of fluctuation from 1997 to 2012, and the forestland and pasture land. The area of traffic land, residential land and industrial and mining land, the basic increasing trend, the area of water area showed a lateral S-type fluctuation. From the point of view of the change of land use degree, the comprehensive index of the study area shows negative growth during the study period, that is, the land use in the study area is in the period of adjustment and the speed of urban development is slow during the study period. In the study area, the land use pattern is single and the degree of structural diversity is low. During the study period, the entropy of land use structure information decreases continuously. (2) the results show that the total value of ecosystem services in the study area increased slightly during 1997-1999 and decreased in 2006-2009. During the period of 2009-2012, the value of ecosystem services increased obviously, and the total value of ecosystem services changed to 630 million yuan in the period of 15 years. Combining the natural environment, social development and policy changes in the study area, The results show that the change of ecosystem service value in the study area is sensitive to the social and economic development and related policy changes in the study area. (3) the analysis of the contribution rate of different land use types to ecosystem service value in the study area shows that: And forage land contributed the most to the change of total ecosystem value in the study area. The change trend is basically consistent with the change trend of total value, followed by cultivated land and water area, and the contribution rate of construction land and unused land to the change of total value of ecosystem services in the study area is the least. (4) each land use type in the study area; The results of the correlation analysis between the value of single ecosystem services and the total value of ecosystem services in the study area show that: among the land use types, between each land use type and between individual service values, There is a good correlation between each land use type and the total value of regional service, the correlation coefficient value is generally high, most of them are strong correlation or medium correlation. (5) the path analysis of the value of land use change to ecosystem services in the study area showed that the order of direct effect from big to small was forest land, forage land, cultivated land, water area and construction land. Forest land, forage land, cultivated land and water area play a positive and direct role on the total value of ecosystem services in the study area, and construction land plays a negative direct role on the total value of ecosystem services in the study area. The order of indirect effect from big to small is cultivated land, water area, woodland, forage land and construction land. Forest land and construction land play a positive and indirect role in ecosystem service in the study area, while cultivated land, forage land and water area play a negative indirect role in ecosystem service in the study area.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X171
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