湖北省居民粮食消费与营养收入弹性研究

发布时间：2019-02-17 11:32

【摘要】：目前我国的粮食安全问题依然严峻,面临着数量和质量上的双重重压。随着全球对此问题的深入研究,越来越多的人开始将粮食数量安全与营养健康、卫生安全结合在一起,形成营养目标下的粮食安全新概念。当前粮食安全问题中由于饮食结构不当而带来的营养不良状态备受关注,收入增长与居民营养状况改善的同步性与阶段差异性研究成为热点学术问题。本论文从居民收入-粮食消费-营养状况之间的关系出发,收集1985-2014年湖北省城乡居民收入数据、食物消费数据,建立粮食、食物与营养的转换关系,分析居民收入变化对营养需求的影响,并通过营养-收入弹性来估计居民营养需求趋势及营养目标下的未来粮食消费需求趋势。一方面,剖析新时期城乡居民生活水平变化情况,从而为深入理解现阶段区域居民收入与营养状况变化的关系提供一些参考,为制定我国居民营养健康政策提出一些新的思路;另一方面,掌握粮食需求变化趋势,为湖北省实现营养目标下的粮食产需动态平衡提供参考。研究结果显示,湖北省城乡居民人均口粮消费量呈下降趋势,人均间接所需饲料粮消费量呈上升趋势。就目前的粮食-营养水平看,城镇居民虽高于农村居民,但两者均未达到《中国居民膳食指南(2016)》(后均简称《指南》)推荐的合理营养水平,究其原因,主要是膳食结构的不合理造成的。在对收入进行差异阶段划分的基础上,本论文算得农村居民的口粮热量-收入弹性为-0.276,未来农村居民收入增长仍将对口粮营养产生较大的影响。城镇居民的口粮热量-收入弹性在0-10500元和19000-25000元两个收入阶段分别为-0.172和-0.509,城镇居民的口粮营养收入弹性并不稳定,口粮营养摄入很可能已经达到极限值。农村居民收入在0-6800元、6800-7500元和7500-11000元时对应的动物性热量-收入弹性分别为0.190、-0.063、0.385,动物性蛋白质-收入弹性分别为0.307、-0.042、0.343,动物性脂肪-收入弹性分别为0.156、-0.079、0.392。未来农村居民收入的增加将继续对动物性热量、蛋白质和脂肪的摄入产生较强的正向影响。城镇居民收入在0-19800元、19800-25000元时对应的动物性热量-收入弹性分别为0.232、-0.113,动物性蛋白质-收入弹性分别为0.232、-0.144,动物性脂肪-收入弹性分别为0.219、-0.102。未来城镇居民收入的增加将不再对动物性营养素摄入量的提高产生大的正向影响,动物性热量、蛋白质和脂肪的摄入量很可能不增反降。湖北省城乡居民未来营养状况及粮食需求量的预测结果显示,2025年湖北省农村居民每日口粮热量需求量将符合营养标准,城镇居民口粮热量需求量将处于推荐范围下限;城乡居民的动物性营养水平虽有所提高,但仍低于《指南》推荐的营养摄入范围。从湖北省城乡居民的粮食消费需求结构上来看,2025年较2014年达到了更高的营养水平。预计未来湖北省粮食需求结构将继续发生变化,居民直接粮食消费需求将继续减少,间接饲料粮消费需求将继续上升,需求总量将持续增长,且增长以饲料粮需求增长为主。我国经济不断发展,居民的收入也在不断增加,但收入对居民营养状况的影响将越来越小,若要持续改善居民的营养状况,单靠提高居民收入已远远不够,更需要政府及相关组织加强对居民的膳食指导并不断强化居民的营养观念。营养目标下的粮食安全问题不仅需要将营养与需求结合,也需要将营养与生产间接联系,按照营养目标不断调整优化湖北省的粮食种植结构,以形成农业发展新模式,一方面减小乃至避免产需矛盾,另一方面也不断满足居民食物消费需求。
[Abstract]:At present, the problem of food security in our country is still serious, facing the double stress of quantity and quality. With the global in-depth study of this problem, more and more people have begun to combine food security with nutrition, health and safety to form a new concept of food security under the nutritional goals. In the current food security problem, due to the improper diet structure, the malnutrition status has been paid close attention, and the study of the synchronicity and the phase difference between the income growth and the nutritional status of the residents has become a hot topic academic problem. Based on the relationship between the residents' income and the food consumption and the nutritional status, the paper collected the income data of the urban and rural residents in Hubei Province from 1985 to 2014, the data of food consumption, the relationship between the food, the food and the nutrition, and the influence of the change of the income on the nutrition demand. and the trend of population nutrition demand and the trend of future food consumption demand under the nutrition target are estimated through the nutrition-income elasticity. On the one hand, the changes of the living standards of the urban and rural residents in the new period are analyzed, so as to provide some references for the in-depth understanding of the relationship between the income and the nutritional status of the residents in the current stage, and to put forward some new ideas for the development of the nutrition health policy of the residents in our country; on the other hand, To master the change trend of grain demand, to provide a reference for the dynamic balance of food production under the nutrition target in Hubei Province. The results show that the per-capita ration consumption of urban and rural residents in Hubei is decreasing, and the consumption of feed grain per capita is on the rise. According to the current food-nutrition level, the urban residents are higher than the rural residents, but both do not reach the reasonable level of nutrition recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2016)> (hereinafter referred to as the ), which is mainly caused by the unreasonable dietary structure. On the basis of the division of the difference between the income and the income, the income elasticity of the ration of the rural residents is-0.276, and the income of the rural residents in the future will still have a great effect on the nutrition of the ration. The food ration heat-income elasticity of the urban residents is-0.172 and-0.509 at the two income stages of 0-10500 and 19000-25000 yuan, respectively, and the nutrition income of the food of the urban residents is not stable, and the nutrient intake of the food is likely to reach the limit value. The corresponding animal heat-income elasticity of rural residents at 0-6800, 6800-7500 and 7500-11000, respectively, was 0.190,-0.063, 0.385, and the elasticity of animal protein-income was 0.307,-0.042, 0.343, and the elasticity of animal fat-income was 0.156,-0.079, and 0.392, respectively. The increase in the income of rural residents in the future will continue to have a strong positive effect on the intake of animal heat, protein and fat. The income of the urban residents was 0-19800 yuan, the corresponding animal heat-income elasticity at the time of 19800-25000 yuan was 0.232,-0.113, the animal protein-income elasticity was 0.232,-0.144, and the animal fat-income elasticity was 0.219,-0.102, respectively. The increase in the income of urban residents in the future will no longer have a large positive impact on the increase in the intake of animal nutrients, and the intake of animal heat, protein and fat is likely not to increase. The forecast results of the future nutritional status and the food demand of the urban and rural residents in Hubei Province show that the daily ration of the daily ration of the rural residents in Hubei Province will be in accordance with the nutrition standard in 2025, and the demand for the food ration of the urban residents will be at the lower limit of the recommended range; Although the animal nutrition level of urban and rural residents is improved, it is still lower than the recommended range of nutrition intake. From the grain consumption demand structure of urban and rural residents in Hubei Province, higher nutrition levels were achieved in the year 2025. in that future, the food demand structure of Hubei province will continue to change, the demand of direct grain consumption of the population will continue to decrease, the consumption demand of indirect feed grain will continue to increase, the total demand will continue to grow, and the increase of the demand for feed grain is the main. With the continuous development of our economy, the income of the residents is increasing, but the influence of income on the nutritional status of the residents will be smaller and smaller, and if the nutritional status of the residents is to be continuously improved, the income of the residents alone is not enough, It is more necessary for the government and relevant organizations to strengthen the dietary guidance to the residents and to strengthen the nutrition concept of the residents. the problem of food security under the nutrition target not only needs the combination of nutrition and demand, but also the nutrition and the production are indirectly connected, the grain planting structure of the Hubei province is optimized according to the nutrition target, so as to form a new mode of agricultural development, On the other hand, the demand for food consumption of the residents is also continuously met.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11;F323.8

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