南水北调东线江苏受水区土地利用变化模拟及生态安全评价

发布时间：2019-05-30 01:28

【摘要】：利用多期土地利用遥感数据,分析南水北调东线江苏受水区2000—2010年间土地利用变化情况;采用CAMarkov模型对2010—2020年间该区土地利用情况的演变规律进行模拟;同时构建基于"压力-状态-响应"(pressure-state-response,PSR)模型的土地利用生态安全评价指标体系,综合评价受水区不同时期土地利用生态安全状况。结果表明:1)受水区土地利用类型以耕地为主,研究期间林地和水域面积有所扩大,大量耕地转变为城乡建设用地;2)基于CA-Markov模型对研究区2010年土地利用格局的模拟结果与实际进行对比分析,模拟正确的栅格数达到了99.1%,Kappa系数达到0.99,能够较好地反映受水区土地利用格局变化趋势;3)土地利用生态安全评价结果显示2000年、2010年和2020年土地生态安全指数分别为0.51,0.68和0.73,分别达到预警、敏感和良好等级,受水区的人口、资源环境及社会经济开始协调发展,整体呈现好转趋势。
[Abstract]:Based on the remote sensing data of multi-stage land use, the land use change in Jiangsu receiving area of the East Route of South-to-North Water transfer Project from 2000 to 2010 was analyzed, and the CAMarkov model was used to simulate the evolution of land use in this area from 2010 to 2020. At the same time, the evaluation index system of land use ecological security based on "pressure-state-response" (pressure-state-response,PSR) model is constructed, and the ecological security situation of land use in different periods of receiving area is comprehensively evaluated. The results show that: 1) the land use type in the water-receiving area is mainly cultivated land, during the study period, the area of forest land and water area has been expanded, and a large number of cultivated land has been transformed into urban and rural construction land; 2) based on CA-Markov model, the simulation results of land use pattern in 2010 are compared with the actual ones. The correct grid number is 99.1%, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.999. It can reflect the change trend of land use pattern in water-affected area. 3) the results of land use ecological security assessment showed that the land ecological security indexes in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 0.51, 0.68 and 0.73, respectively, which reached the early warning, sensitive and good grades, and the population in the water-affected areas. Resources and environment and social and economic development began to coordinate, the overall trend of improvement.
【作者单位】：河海大学水利水电学院;江苏省南水北调工程建设领导小组办公室;
【基金】：江苏省水利科技项目“南水北调东线工程调蓄湖泊联合优化调度研究”(编号:2014012) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2015B28614) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“江苏省河道管理评价指标体系及管理标准的研究”(编号:SJZZ15_0059)共同资助
【分类号】：F301.2;X826

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