哈密瓜贮藏保鲜项目风险管理研究
发布时间：2019-06-17 15:07
【摘要】：哈密瓜以其优质的口感和丰富的营养价值受到人们的广泛喜爱,随着消费‘者对水果品质的要求不断提高,选择新鲜、安全的哈密瓜已经成为消费潮流。然而由于技术复杂、周期长等特点,果蔬贮藏保鲜类项目隐藏着巨大风险,比如建设运营冷库、研制保鲜技术所需的固定资金投入,市场果蔬价格的不确定性,经营管理人员的市场运作能力等都会对项目收益产生影响。因此,果蔬贮藏保鲜项目中的核心任务之一就是要能识别并控制项目潜在风险。如何全面识别项目风险,并通过分析、评价提出可行的风险应对策略从而降低项目的风险水平非常值得研究。本文以X公司哈密瓜贮藏保鲜项目为依托,通过回顾国内外相关文献资料,借鉴国内外风险管理的研究成果,系统介绍了项目风险管理的基本理论；通过了解哈密瓜贮藏保鲜项目特点和对相关专家进行访谈,对哈密瓜贮藏保鲜过程进行了全面分析,找到了三十个风险因素,归纳总结出五个一级风险指标,即哈密瓜采购风险、保鲜剂调制风险、保鲜剂应用风险、保鲜剂风干风险、贮藏过程风险和十八个二级风险指标,从而构建了项目风险指标体系；利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对风险指标体系进行评价,得出项目总体风险值62.7,属于一般风险,在一级风险指标中关键风险为保鲜剂应用风险和贮藏过程风险,风险值分别为73和75.8；最后,本文针对不同风险提出了相应的风险应对策略,并建立了项目综合风险预警流程体系实施风险监控,实施效果表明,风险监控有效,哈密瓜的贮藏保鲜期成功从80天延长至110天。本文将风险管理的理论应用于新疆特色水果哈密瓜的贮藏保鲜项目实施过程中,得到了项目风险因素表,找出了适合此类项目的风险评价方法,并对各风险提出有针对性的应对策略。本文的研究成果可以帮助项目实现延长哈密瓜储藏保鲜时间的目标,同时为类似农产品保鲜项目实施提供了风险管理方面的借鉴,有利于提高新疆瓜果的市场竞争力,促进新疆瓜果业发展。
[Abstract]:Cantaloupe is widely loved by people because of its high quality taste and rich nutritional value. with the increasing requirements of consumers for fruit quality, the choice of fresh and safe cantaloupe has become a consumption trend. However, due to the characteristics of complex technology and long cycle, there are great risks hidden in fruit and vegetable storage projects, such as the construction and operation of cold storage, the fixed capital input needed to develop fresh-keeping technology, the uncertainty of market fruit and vegetable price, and the market operation ability of management personnel, which will have an impact on the project income. Therefore, one of the core tasks of fruit and vegetable storage and preservation project is to identify and control the potential risks of the project. How to identify the project risk in an all-round way, and through the analysis, evaluation and put forward a feasible risk response strategy to reduce the risk level of the project is very worthy of study. Based on the storage and preservation project of Hami melon in X Company, this paper systematically introduces the basic theory of project risk management by reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad and drawing lessons from the research results of risk management at home and abroad. Through understanding the characteristics of cantaloupe storage and preservation items and interviewing related experts, the storage and preservation process of cantaloupe was comprehensively analyzed, 30 risk factors were found, and five first-level risk indexes were summarized, namely, Hami melon procurement risk, fresh-keeping agent modulation risk, fresh-keeping agent application risk, fresh-keeping agent air-drying risk, storage process risk and 18 secondary risk indicators. Thus, the project risk index system is constructed. The risk index system is evaluated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. It is concluded that the overall risk value of the project is 62.7, which belongs to the general risk. The key risks in the primary risk index are the application risk of preservative and the risk of storage process, and the risk values are 73 and 75.8, respectively. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk response strategies for different risks, and establishes the project comprehensive risk early warning process system to implement risk monitoring. The implementation effect shows that the risk monitoring is effective, and the storage and preservation period of cantaloupe is successfully extended from 80 days to 110 days. In this paper, the theory of risk management is applied to the implementation of the storage and preservation project of Xinjiang characteristic fruit cantaloupe, the risk factor table of the project is obtained, the risk assessment method suitable for this kind of project is found out, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for each risk. The research results of this paper can help the project to achieve the goal of prolonging the storage and preservation time of Hami melon, and provide a reference for the implementation of similar agricultural preservation projects, which is conducive to improving the market competitiveness of Xinjiang melon and fruit industry and promoting the development of Xinjiang melon and fruit industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.13;S652.1
本文编号：2501073
[Abstract]:Cantaloupe is widely loved by people because of its high quality taste and rich nutritional value. with the increasing requirements of consumers for fruit quality, the choice of fresh and safe cantaloupe has become a consumption trend. However, due to the characteristics of complex technology and long cycle, there are great risks hidden in fruit and vegetable storage projects, such as the construction and operation of cold storage, the fixed capital input needed to develop fresh-keeping technology, the uncertainty of market fruit and vegetable price, and the market operation ability of management personnel, which will have an impact on the project income. Therefore, one of the core tasks of fruit and vegetable storage and preservation project is to identify and control the potential risks of the project. How to identify the project risk in an all-round way, and through the analysis, evaluation and put forward a feasible risk response strategy to reduce the risk level of the project is very worthy of study. Based on the storage and preservation project of Hami melon in X Company, this paper systematically introduces the basic theory of project risk management by reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad and drawing lessons from the research results of risk management at home and abroad. Through understanding the characteristics of cantaloupe storage and preservation items and interviewing related experts, the storage and preservation process of cantaloupe was comprehensively analyzed, 30 risk factors were found, and five first-level risk indexes were summarized, namely, Hami melon procurement risk, fresh-keeping agent modulation risk, fresh-keeping agent application risk, fresh-keeping agent air-drying risk, storage process risk and 18 secondary risk indicators. Thus, the project risk index system is constructed. The risk index system is evaluated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. It is concluded that the overall risk value of the project is 62.7, which belongs to the general risk. The key risks in the primary risk index are the application risk of preservative and the risk of storage process, and the risk values are 73 and 75.8, respectively. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk response strategies for different risks, and establishes the project comprehensive risk early warning process system to implement risk monitoring. The implementation effect shows that the risk monitoring is effective, and the storage and preservation period of cantaloupe is successfully extended from 80 days to 110 days. In this paper, the theory of risk management is applied to the implementation of the storage and preservation project of Xinjiang characteristic fruit cantaloupe, the risk factor table of the project is obtained, the risk assessment method suitable for this kind of project is found out, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for each risk. The research results of this paper can help the project to achieve the goal of prolonging the storage and preservation time of Hami melon, and provide a reference for the implementation of similar agricultural preservation projects, which is conducive to improving the market competitiveness of Xinjiang melon and fruit industry and promoting the development of Xinjiang melon and fruit industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.13;S652.1
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1 黄金和;F公司软件项目风险管理研究[D];华南理工大学;2013年
，本文编号：2501073
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