生产外包与区域经济合作：理论和实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 06:25

本文关键词：生产外包与区域经济合作：理论和实证研究　出处：《南开大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来双边自由贸易协定层出不穷。各国政府在寻求自由贸易谈判伙伴时,除了政治因素外,更多的是出于国民福利上的考虑。两个国家业已存在的贸易、投资、外包等经济联系会不会产生“引力效应”吸引两国达成双边自由贸易协定(FTAs)?如果存在这种引力效应,它对双边FTAs达成的促进作用有多大?全球生产分割成为国际生产分工新的趋势,由此引发的各国之间的外包联系日益紧密,本文以生产性外包为切入点,考察原有的外包联系对两个国家达成FTAs的“引力效应”,在此基础上对TPP和RCEP的可行性进行理论上分析。此外本文还对TPP和RCEP在推进过程中遇到的现实困难进行了比较,为判断这两种框架协议的现实可行性提供参考。本文主要研究结论如下：1.全球范围内外包联系越来越紧密,而这种紧密的联系在亚太地区表现的尤为突出。与TPP相比,RCEP内部成员国之间的外包联系更加紧密。2.除了在传统引力模型中发挥作用的解释变量外,影响外包联系发展的还有国家之间的要素禀赋差异和技术差距,这两个变量用来反映国家之间的比较优势差异。回归结果显示技术差距在全球范围内、亚太地区、TPP和RECP内部对外包联系发展都有显著的促进作用；要素禀赋差异只在全球范围内对外包联系发展有显著促进作用,但是在亚太地区、TPP和RCEP内部对外包联系的发展促进作用并不显著。3.通过构建双边的外包模型,利用古诺竞争的思想,比较双边FTAs达成后两个国家综合福利的净增加情况。研究结果表明原有外包联系越紧密,达成FTAs后两国的综合净福利增加越多,从而两个国家达成FTAs的意愿越强烈。4.通过构建Probit模型,使用1998至2011年全球96个国家的面板数据,就已有的外包联系对两个国家达成FTAs的促进作用进行实证检验,并用亚太地区的数据进行对比。实证结果表明已有的外包联系确实对双边FTAs的达成起促进作用,而且这种促进作用在亚太地区表现更加明显。5.与TPP情况相比,RCEP内部国家之间的外包联系更加紧密,如果从外包联系的角度来看区域内国家之间的双边FTAs会促进整个区域的贸易自由化,那么RCEP较之TPP更容易达成一个统一的自由贸易区。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the bilateral free trade agreement. Governments seeking to emerge in an endless stream of free trade partners, in addition to political factors, more out of the national welfare considerations. The existing two countries trade, investment, outsourcing and other economic ties will have a "gravitational effect" to attract a bilateral free trade agreement (FTAs)? If there is such gravitational effects, it reached to promote bilateral FTAs much? Global production is divided into the international division of production of new trends, between countries caused by outsourcing increasingly close to the production outsourcing as the starting point, study the original outsourcing contact in two countries reached FTAs "the effect of gravity, a theoretical analysis on the basis of TPP and RCEP. In addition, the feasibility of TPP and RCEP on the practical difficulties encountered in the process of advancing into the comparison, It provides a reference for judging the practical feasibility of the two framework agreements.
The main conclusions are as follows: 1. global outsourcing more closely linked, and this close contact in the Asia Pacific region is particularly prominent. Compared with TPP, RCEP internal members of the outsourcing is more closely related to.2. in addition to play a role in the traditional gravity model variables, factor endowment difference between the influence of outsourcing relationship the development of the state and the technology gap between these two variables to reflect the differences of comparative advantage between countries. The regression results show the technology gap in the global scope, the Asia Pacific region, the development of internal outsourcing contact TPP and RECP have a significant role in promoting; factor endowment difference only in the global scope of outsourcing development significantly to promote the role, but in the Asia Pacific region, promote the development of TPP and RCEP internal contact is not significant.3. outsourcing outsourcing model through the construction of bilateral interest, With Cournot competition theory, net increase of bilateral FTAs reached two national welfare. The results show that the original outsourcing more closely linked, comprehensive welfare reached FTAs after the two increasing to two countries to reach the intention of FTAs.4. more strongly by constructing a Probit model, using panel data from 1998 to 2011 96 countries of the world, it has outsourced contact in two countries to reach the promotion effect of FTAs for empirical test, and compared with the Asia Pacific region data. The empirical results show that the existing outsourcing contact did achieve on bilateral FTAs play an important role, and this role in the Asia Pacific region were more obvious in.5. and TPP compared between RCEP of the outsourcing more closely, from the perspective of outsourcing if contact between countries in the region will promote bilateral FTAs regional trade Easy to liberate, then RCEP is more likely to reach a unified free trade area than TPP.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F744;F224

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