地方债务影响经济波动吗

发布时间：2017-12-31 13:28

本文关键词：地方债务影响经济波动吗　出处：《中国工业经济》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：日益引起关注的地方债务问题是否会对经济波动产生不可忽视的影响,是一个很值得研究的问题。本文通过考察地方债务作用于经济波动的传导渠道,以及土地财政和政治周期对该渠道的影响,对这一问题展开研究,并利用中国2003—2013年31个省份的面板数据实证检验了地方债务与经济波动之间的关系。研究发现:地方债务波动确实会影响区域经济波动,伴随着地方债务规模变动幅度的增加,区域经济波动更加剧烈,并通过投资波动这条渠道冲击经济稳定,且这种影响具有持续性;土地财政对地方债务影响经济稳定具有推动作用;由于地方政府的举债行为具有政治周期性,使得地方债务的扩张速度具有急缓之分,进而影响了经济稳定。稳健性检验发现,地方政府的举债行为在一定程度上加剧了产能过剩问题,并对经济波动产生负面影响。因此,为了更好地发挥政府债务促进经济发展的积极作用,需要进一步规范通过地方政府举债进行政府投资的行为,防范地方政府盲目投融资的系统性风险。
[Abstract]:It is worth studying whether the problem of local debt which attracts more and more attention can not be ignored to the economic fluctuation. This paper investigates the transmission channels of the local debt acting on the economic fluctuation. And the impact of the land finance and political cycle on this channel, to carry out a study on this issue. And using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2013 to empirically test the relationship between local debt and economic volatility. The study found that local debt volatility does affect regional economic volatility. With the increase of the scale of local debt, the regional economy fluctuates more intensely, and impacts the economic stability through the investment fluctuation channel, and this kind of influence has the sustainability; The land finance has the promotion function to the local debt to affect the economic stability; Because the local government's borrowing behavior has the political periodicity, makes the local debt expansion speed has the swift and slow, then has affected the economic stability. To some extent, the borrowing behavior of local governments has aggravated the problem of overcapacity and had a negative impact on economic fluctuations. Therefore, in order to better play the role of government debt to promote economic development. It is necessary to further standardize the behavior of government investment through borrowing by local governments to guard against the systematic risk of blind investment and financing by local governments.
【作者单位】：广东财经大学经济贸易学院;浙江财经大学经济学院;华侨大学统计学院;浙江工商大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“利率市场化视角下的货币政策风险承担渠道问题研究”(批准号71573224)
【分类号】：F812.5
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出自1994年中国实施分税制起,中央和地方的财权和事权被重新划分,财政格局发生了巨大转变(1),地方政府的财政资金缺口越来越大。特别是在1997年以后,地方政府性债务规模随着经济的快速发展而逐年增长,以2009年为例,当年经济增长率为9.21%,而债务余额却增长了61.92%

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