贵州省经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 06:29

本文关键词：贵州省经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究　出处：《贵州财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对经济周期波动与宏观经济增长的研究由来已久，大多数学者都认为经济增长过程中伴随着经济的周期性波动；而对于产业结构与经济增长的关系，国内外经济学家也都普遍认为产业结构的变动对宏观经济会产生促进或抑制作用。在世界经济全球化和区域经济一体化的情况下，如何在促进经济结构调整的同时又不引起经济的大幅度波动成为亟需解决的问题。作为宏观经济运行的两种表现形式，经济周期波动与产业结构变动势必存在着一定的关系。然而对于两者关系的研究，大多数学者都是从国家的层面进行研究，从区域的层面进行研究则相对较少；而且，多数研究在分析时对整个时间段不加划分，没有考虑到改革开放这一政策效应的影响。本文基于建国后贵州省64年地区生产总值和三次产业生产总值的数据分改革开放前后两个时间区间来研究贵州省的经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系。具体来说，本文包括以下三部分的工作：首先，对贵州省地区生产总值实际增长率进行HP滤波处理，，将其剩余的循环成分作为经济周期波动的衡量指标，并以此对贵州省所经历的经济周期进行划分。结果发现，建国后贵州省共经历了10个经济周期。与改革开放前相比，改革开放后经济周期波动的幅度更小，经济周期持续时间也更长。这与我国在建国后经历的经济周期所表现的特征大体上一致。其次，构造反映产业结构变动的综合指标摩尔结构指数，运用Granger因果检验方法从总体上分析经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间的关系。结果显示，在改革开放前后，贵州省产业结构变动均是经济周期波动的单向Granger原因。最后，对经济周期波动与产业结构变动进行向量自回归分析。这里我们选取贵州省三次产业产值占地区生产总值比重的变化量来衡量产业结构变动。结果表明，改革开放前，第二产业的结构变动对贵州省的经济周期波动具有较大影响，第二产业比重的剧烈变化造成了经济周期波动频繁且幅度较大；改革开放后，第三产业的结构变动对经济周期的作用则比较明显，其比重的增加有助于贵州省经济周期波动的减缓。
[Abstract]:The research on the fluctuation of economic cycle and the macro - economic growth has been a long time . Most scholars believe that the economic growth is accompanied by the periodical fluctuation of the economy . In the case of the globalization of the world economy and the integration of regional economy , it is generally accepted that the change of the industrial structure can promote or inhibit the macro - economy . In this paper , the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in Guizhou province is studied based on the data of the gross domestic product ( GDP ) and the tertiary industry product ( GDP ) of 64 years after the founding of China . In particular , this paper includes the following three parts : At first , HP filter processing is carried out on the real growth rate of GDP in Guizhou Province . The remaining cycle components are used as a measure of economic cycle fluctuation , and the economic period experienced by Guizhou province is divided . The result shows that after the reform and opening up , the fluctuation of the economic cycle is smaller and the duration of the economic cycle is longer than before the reform and opening up . This is basically consistent with the characteristics of our country ' s economic cycle after the founding of the country . Secondly , the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure is analyzed in the whole by the structure index of the comprehensive index reflecting the change of industrial structure . The result shows that the industrial structure change of Guizhou province is one - way causality of the fluctuation of the economic cycle before and after the reform and opening up . At last , we analyze the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure . We choose tertiary industry output value of Guizhou province to measure the change of industrial structure . The result shows that the structure change of the second industry has great influence on the fluctuation of economic cycle of Guizhou province before the reform and opening up .

【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F121.3

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