面向低碳发展的土地利用情景模拟

发布时间：2018-01-12 23:09

本文关键词：面向低碳发展的土地利用情景模拟　出处：《河南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人类活动造成大气碳含量增加导致的气候变暖及其造成的一系列极端恶劣环境气候灾害，已经越来越受到国际社会的关注。研究土地利用/土地覆被变化的格局及原因,并探索由此引起的碳排放效应，对不同情景下的土地利用数量及空间结构进行模拟，对制定低碳目标下的土地利用政策具有重要意义。热带雨林是全球重要的碳库，大面积的热带森林被砍伐所导致的碳排放问题，也受到学术界的广泛关注。西双版纳地区拥有我国面积最大的热带森林，全区森林植被碳贮量达64.10Tg,平均碳密度值为51.13t/hm2。1965年到1995年，全州毁林开荒，增加耕地，大面积种植橡胶林，导致全区天然林面积大幅下降。天然林覆盖率从原有的46.46%将至27.80%。这些土地覆被变化对本地区的碳平衡具有重要影响。研究土地利用变化对碳排放的影响，并通过调整土地利用政策实现减少碳排放的目的，对于我国发展低碳经济，寻求可持续发展道路具有重要意义。本文在IPCC2006和土地利用碳排放研究的基础上，提出了综合土地利用碳排放核算方法；在对土地利用变化模型研究的基础上，建立Logistic-CA-Markov模型，实现对土地利用的情景模拟；并将两者有机结合起来，形成了面向低碳发展的土地利用情景模拟。使用1999-2007年的数据，对西双版纳地区1999-2007年土地利用变化碳排放效应进行了分析，对西双版纳地区不同土地类型的碳源碳汇效应进行了对比分析，分经济发展情景、生态安全情景和综合发展情景对西双版纳地区的土地利用变化进行了模拟，并对三种结果进行了碳效应分析。本文主要结论如下： 1.构建了面向低碳发展的土地利用情景模拟研究框架。框架由土地利用碳排放和土地利用情景模拟两个子模块组成，土地利用碳排放模块通过多时相的土地利用数据，分保持类型的植被碳排放、改变类型的植被碳排放和土壤碳排放三个部分核算土地利用变化的碳排放，使用社会经济统计数据核算土地载体上的碳排放；土地利用情景模拟模块使用logistic回归和Markov模型，结合CA模型，以土地利用转移矩阵为基础，，使用logistic回归分析辨别多种因素对土地利用变化的影响，并对转移概率进行修正，分析不同情景下土地利用变化的碳排放效应。通过案例研究证明这种研究框架具有理论和实践意义。 2.对1999-2007年西双版纳地区土地利用碳排放进行了核算。研究期内西双版纳地区共吸收碳5500526t，其中保持类型的植被碳吸收7740429t，改变类型的植被碳排放377410.1t，土壤碳吸收2000310t，能源消费碳排放3862803.604t。从土地利用类型上看，发生在林地区域的碳排放最多，发生在建设用地的碳排放强度最大。 3.对西双版纳地区土地利用进行了情景模拟，结果显示：三种情境下西双版纳地区天然林面积均呈现下降趋势，其中经济发展情景下降趋势最快，平均每年减少62566ha，生态安全情景面积下降趋势最小，综合发展情景处于两种情景之间；经济发展情景下经济林增长速度最快，平均每年增加63091ha，生态安全情景增速最慢，综合发展情景处于两者之间；耕地、草地、建设用地变化不明显。 4.对西双版纳地区土地利用碳减排潜力进行了研究，三种情景中生态安全情景能够有效的减少碳排放，各种土地类型的碳排放强度均有所下降，表明严格控制下的土地政策能够有效减少碳排放，但是需要牺牲大量的耕地、建设用地和经济林。综合发展情景下，碳排放较生态安全情景多，但是土地利用结构更加合理，能够有效兼顾区域经济发展和碳减排目标。
[Abstract]:Human activities have increased atmospheric carbon content caused by climate warming and caused a series of extreme climate disasters, has been more and more attention by the international community. Study on the pattern and causes of land of land use / land cover change, and explore the resulting effect on carbon emissions, land use under different scenarios of quantity and space simulate the structure, is of great significance to develop low carbon targets under the land use policy.
Tropical rain forest is an important global carbon pool, a large area of tropical deforestation caused by carbon emissions, also attracted widespread attention in academic circles. In Xishuangbanna area, China has the largest area of tropical forest, the forest vegetation carbon storage was 64.10Tg, the average carbon density was 51.13t/hm2.1965 years to 1995, the state of deforestation increased, cultivated land, planting a large area of rubber plantation, led to the region's natural forest area dropped significantly. The natural forest coverage rate from the original 46.46% 27.80%. is approaching these land cover change has important influence on the carbon balance in the region. The research of land use change on carbon emissions, and through the adjustment of land use policies to reduce carbon emissions for the purpose of developing low-carbon economy in China, is of great significance for the sustainable development of the road.
Based on IPCC2006 and carbon emission of land use on the proposed comprehensive land use carbon emission accounting methods; based on the land use change model research, establish Logistic-CA-Markov model, simulate the land use scenarios; and combines them together, forming a land use scenario for low carbon development simulation using the data of 1999-2007, 1999-2007 in the Xishuangbanna area of land use change in carbon emissions of the carbon source and sink effect of different land types in Xishuangbanna area were analyzed. The situation of economic development, ecological security situation and comprehensive development scenarios to simulate the land use change in Xishuangbanna area, and on the three the results of carbon effect analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
1. construction land use scenarios for low carbon development simulation framework by the carbon emission of land utilization and land use scenarios simulation of two sub modules, land use and carbon emissions through multi module land use data is divided, keeping vegetation carbon emissions, changing the types of vegetation carbon emissions and carbon emissions three a part of accounting of land use change in carbon emissions, the use of social and economic data of carbon emissions account for the land carrier; land use scenario simulation module using logistic regression and Markov model, combined with the CA model, the land use transfer matrix as the basis, effects of various factors on identifying changes in land use regression analysis using logistic, and the transfer probability is modified, analysis of different scenarios of land use change in carbon emission effect. Through the case study proves that this framework has theoretical and Practical significance.
2. of the land use in Xishuangbanna area 1999-2007 carbon emissions were checked. The study period in Xishuangbanna total absorption of carbon 5500526t, which keep the vegetation carbon absorption type 7740429t, the type of change of vegetation carbon emissions 377410.1t, soil carbon absorption 2000310t, carbon emissions from energy consumption of 3862803.604t. from the perspective of the land-use types, most occurred in the forest region carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity in construction land.
3. of the land use in Xishuangbanna area to simulate, the result showed that three kinds of situation in Xishuangbanna area under natural forest area showed a downward trend, which decreased the fastest economic development situation, the average annual decrease of 62566ha, the ecological security situation area decreased the minimum, comprehensive development situation between the two scenarios of economic forest economic development situation; under the fastest growth rate, an average annual increase of 63091ha, the ecological security situation the slowest growth rate, the comprehensive development situation in between; cultivated land, grassland, construction land use change is not obvious.
4. of the carbon emission reduction of land use in Xishuangbanna area potential were studied, three kinds of ecological security situation in the scene can effectively reduce carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity of various land types decreased, indicated that under the strict control of land policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions, but the need to sacrifice a lot of arable land and the construction of economic forest. The comprehensive development situation, carbon emissions is the ecological security situation, but the land use structure is more reasonable, which can effectively balance the regional economic development and carbon emission reduction targets.

【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301;X24

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