转型期中国投资行为的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 05:29

本文选题：经济转型　切入点：地区投资增长　出处：《南开大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国的资本形成率长期在高位运行,近年来更是持续攀升,不仅远远高于发达国家,而且高于其他新兴经济体。投资既创造供给,又创造需求,这种双重作用推动了中国经济持续多年的高速增长。鉴此,过去三十多年中国的经济增长方式可以理解为投资依赖型经济增长方式。同时,由于投资的易变性,投资也带动了中国经济的短期波动。由于投资在经济舞台上扮演的重要角色,中国的宏观经济政策时常围绕投资展开,甚至直接将投资作为宏观调控的重要工具。考察中国独特的投资行为及其决定机制,对于探寻中国经济发展的内在规律,进而把握经济发展的未来趋势,具有特别重要的意义。本文基于转型经济背景,运用科学的思维形式和规范的研究方法,力图对中国的投资行为展开全面而深入地解读。本文研究路径如下。首先,通过对现象材料的比较、分析,由具体上升到一般,归纳出转型期中国投资行为的总量与结构特征。然后,从实体因素和金融因素着手,选取具有转型特征的若干变量,从理论和实证层面分别探究这些变量对地区、行业、企业投资的影响,将计量结果与理论命题对比,结合具体经济现实,解析二者一致或背离的缘由。最后,凝炼出本文主要结论,据此提出相关政策建议。本文在导论部分首先介绍了选题背景,接着提出所要研究的问题；然后介绍文章的研究思路和主要内容；最后,指出文章的可能创新和不足之处。在第二章的文献综述中先梳理了国外主流投资理论模型的演变以及实证研究的结果；再结合中国的转型特征,系统回顾了有关中国投资行为的理论和实证文献；然后对相关文献进行简评。第三章在充分占用数据材料的基础上,从总量和结构的角度对改革开放以来的投资状况进行统计描述分析,以勾勒其动态演化趋势及结构变迁过程,抽象、概括其行为特征,为后文的进一步研究提供现实素材。第四章基于转型期产能过剩、信贷扩张与地区投资高涨并存的典型事实,构筑地区投资理论模型,刻画产能利用、信贷扩张对地区投资行为的作用机理,然后运用省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明在总体上产能利用水平对投资并没有显著的正向引导作用,而信贷扩张对投资则具有显著的正向推动作用。进一步的子样本分析表明,在不同地区和时期,产能利用率、信贷扩张对地区投资的影响作用略有差异,本文从区域经济发展的不均衡、宏观经济政策以及经济体制变迁等角度剖析了这种差异的原因。行业投资效率是投资行为在质量维度上的映射。在经济转型期,行业投资效率受制于特定的制度环境。第五章首先从理论上阐释政府干预和金融深化对行业投资配置效率的影响机制,并据此提出研究假说；然后采用行业面板数据对研究假说进行实证检验。结果显示,金融深化能显著提高行业投资效率；然而,金融深化对行业投资效率改善功能的发挥受到政府干预的影响,具体来说,政府通过干预银行信贷决策和金融资源的流向,削弱了金融深化对行业投资效率的改善作用。随着剩余劳动力的逐步消化,工资成本上升是长期趋势；同时,伴随利率市场化改革,央行频繁调整基准利率。在此背景下,第六章构造包含工资和利率的企业投资决策模型并提出理论命题,然后运用企业面板数据进行计量检验。结果发现,工资成本对企业投资具有正向影响,本期利率对企业投资具有负向影响,然而这些影响效力皆受制于产权性质和市场化程度；预期下期利率对民营控股企业和市场化程度高的地区企业投资行为具有显著负向影响,对其他类型企业则没有影响。在前文理论与实证分析的基础上,第七章归纳和总结全文的主要结论,并据此提出匡正投资行为、改善投资效率以及转变投资依赖型经济增长方式的相关政策建议。进而言之,本文提出“三个转变”作为全文的落脚点,即转变政府角色、转变投资方向、转变企业行为。总体而言,本文同时考虑具有转型特征的实体因素和金融因素对投资行为的影响,抽象出契合中国实际的投资模型,从而突破了建构于完善市场经济条件下的西方主流投资理论的窠臼。由于微观个体的异质性,不同层面的投资行为可能存在系统性差异。因此,本文分别研究地区、行业和企业投资行为,以探析各因素对不同维度投资行为的影响,以期对转型期中国投资行为进行全面系统把握。这是对现有投资理论研究的拓展与丰富。
[Abstract]:China capital formation rate in the long-term running high, especially in recent years continued to rise, not only is much higher than in developed countries, but also higher than in other emerging economies. Both investment and create supply and demand creation, this dual role to promote the continuous years of rapid growth China economy. In view of this, in the past thirty years of economic growth can be China understand the dependent economic growth into investment. At the same time, because the volatility of investment, investment also led to short-term fluctuations in the economy. Because of the important role China investment plays in the economic arena, China macroeconomic policies often focus on investment, and even direct investment as an important tool of macro-control on investment behavior. China unique and its decision mechanism, to explore the inherent law of China economic development, and then grasp the future trend of economic development, is especially important.
This paper based on the background of economic transformation, the use of scientific research methods of thinking forms and norms, to expand the interpretation of a comprehensive and in-depth to the investment behavior of China. Follows the path of this study. Firstly, through the comparison, the phenomenon of material analysis, from specific to general, summed up the total amount and structure characteristics of China investment behavior during the transition period. Then, starting from the physical factors and financial factors, select some variables with the characteristics of the transition, and explore the industry variables on these areas, from theoretical and empirical aspects, the impact of business investment will measure a comparison of fruit and theory, combined with the specific economic reality, reason analysis of two consistent or deviation. Finally, refine the main conclusions of this paper, puts forward relevant policy suggestions accordingly.
In the introduction of this paper firstly introduces the background, then put forward the research problems; then introduce the research ideas and the main content of the article; finally, the article points out the possible innovations and shortcomings. In the second chapter is literature review first reviews the evolution of the mainstream investment theory model and the empirical study result again; combined with the features of transformation Chinese, system reviews China investment behavior of the theoretical and empirical literature; and then review the relevant literature. In the third chapter, based on the full use of the data, statistical analysis and description on the status of investment since the reform and opening up from the total amount and structure point of view, to outline the evolution trend and structural changes process, abstraction, generalization of the behavioral characteristics, provide practical materials for the further study.
The fourth chapter based on the typical transition period of overcapacity, credit expansion and rising investment in regions coexist, build a theoretical model of investment area, describe the capacity utilization, the credit expansion mechanism of regional investment behavior, and then using the provincial panel data empirical test. The results show that the overall level of capacity utilization and no significant positive effect the investment and credit expansion has significant positive effect on investment. Further sub sample analysis shows that in different regions and periods, the capacity utilization rate, credit expansion impact on regional investment effect is slightly different, the unbalanced development of the regional economy, macroeconomic policy and economic system transition perspective the reason for this difference.
Industry investment efficiency is a mapping of investment behavior in the quality dimensions. In the period of economic transition, by industry investment efficiency in the specific institutional environment. The fifth chapter from the theory of government intervention and financial deepening impact on industry investment allocation efficiency, and puts forward the research hypothesis; then using the panel data of industries the hypothesis of empirical test. The results show that financial deepening can significantly improve the efficiency of industry investment; however, financial deepening play on industry investment efficiency and improve the function of the influence of government intervention by the government, specifically, through the intervention of bank credit decisions and financial resources to weaken the financial deepening effect on improving the efficiency of industry investment.
With the gradual digestion of the surplus labor force, rising wage costs is a long-term trend; at the same time, along with the market-oriented interest rate reform, the central bank frequently adjust the benchmark interest rate. Under this background, the sixth chapter includes wages and interest of the enterprise investment decision-making model and puts forward theoretical proposition, then use the enterprise panel data econometric test. The results showed that positive the cost impact on corporate investment, the interest rate on corporate investment has a negative effect, but these are subject to influence the effectiveness of property rights and the degree of market expectations; next interest rate on the private holding company and a high degree of market-oriented enterprises investment behavior has a significant negative impact, there is no impact on other types of enterprises.
Based on the analysis of the above theory and empirical analysis, the main conclusion of the seventh chapter sums up and summarizes the full text, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions on investment behavior, improve investment efficiency and investment dependent transformation of the mode of economic growth. Furthermore, this paper puts forward "three change" as the foothold, is changing the role of government, transformation the direction of investment, changes in the behavior of enterprises.
Overall, this paper considers that has influence on the investment behavior of the real factors and financial factors in the transformation characteristics of the abstract model with the actual investment China, thus breaking the construction to improve the market economy under the conditions of the western mainstream theory of investment patterns. Due to the heterogeneity of individual investment behavior, may be different levels of system differences. Therefore, in this study area, industry and enterprise investment behavior, the research on the influence factors of the different dimensions of investment behavior, in order to grasp the overall system of Chinese investment behavior in transition. This is to expand the existing investment and rich theoretical research.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F832.5

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