道路客运公交化运营客流量预测与时刻表编制

发布时间：2018-04-07 18:29

本文选题：道路客运　切入点：公交化运营　出处：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程和区域经济一体化的加快，人们间的交流日趋密切，，对出行工具数量和质量方面的需求逐渐提高，自2004年以来全国各地不断地对道路客运进行公交化改造。然而，道路客运班线公交化改造中，运营企业对改造后线路的客流量缺少分析预测，时刻表的编制不够合理，导致运力不足、乘客等待时间长等一系列问题的出现。因此，研究道路客运公交化改造后线路的客流量预测及科学、合理的编制时刻表具有重要的理论和实际意义。在对道路客运发展历程、发展现状及发展趋势的基础上，分析公交化运营的优势、前提条件以及存在的问题。从道路客运公交化运营后客流的增加量入手，将增加量分为趋势客流量和诱发客流量两类，再针对它们各自的特点分别选择GM（1，1）预测模型与重力模型对客流量进行预测。用预测得到的增长率，对调查的断面客流量进行处理得到预测断面客流量，进而对时刻表进行编制。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and regional economic integration in China, the communication between people is becoming closer and closer, and the demand for the quantity and quality of travel tools is increasing gradually.However, in the transformation of public transportation on the road passenger line, the operation enterprises lack of analysis and prediction of the passenger flow after the revamping, and the compilation of timetable is not reasonable, resulting in a series of problems, such as insufficient transportation capacity and long waiting time for passengers, and so on.Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the prediction of passenger flow and the scientific and reasonable compilation of timetable.On the basis of the development course, current situation and development trend of road passenger transport, the advantages, preconditions and existing problems of public transportation operation are analyzed.Starting with the increase of passenger flow after the operation of road passenger transportation, the increase is divided into two types: trend passenger flow and induced passenger flow. According to their respective characteristics, the GM-1) forecasting model and gravity model are selected to forecast the passenger flow.With the predicted growth rate, the passenger flow of the surveyed section is treated to get the predicted cross-section passenger flow, and then the timetable is compiled.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.17;U492.22

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