我国淡水养殖业发展的空间变化影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 07:21

本文选题：淡水养殖 + 格局变化　；参考：《中国农业科技导报》2017年02期

【摘要】：在陆地农业资源退化和人口总量上升的双重压迫下,淡水养殖有望成为支撑我国居民口粮供给的另一支柱产业。基于2007-2014年我国省域淡水养殖面板数据,探寻了我国淡水养殖区域的格局变化,利用全局Moran’s I指数考察淡水养殖区的空间相关性,并通过构建空间杜宾面板模型分析了产业格局变化的影响因素。研究表明:1我国淡水养殖业呈现出"东南热、西北冷"的特点,省域间的空间相关性逐年显著;2淡水养殖资金投入增加、养殖面积扩大、区域经济发展水平提升会对淡水养殖量有正向的作用,体现我国淡水养殖业由粗放经营向集约化经营的转变;3淡水养殖面积负间接效应反映"过度养殖"和环境污染对淡水资源的破坏会减缓淡水养殖业的发展;4淡水养殖业发展和城镇化的进程之间不矛盾,在未来可以稳定持续地提供淡水产品,成为国家粮食安全和食品安全重要保障。最后从合理规划淡水养殖区域格局、平衡省份间技术推广资金投入和加强对水资源污染的监管3个方面提出了推动淡水养殖业发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the dual oppression of the degradation of land agricultural resources and the increase of total population, freshwater farming is expected to become another pillar industry supporting the supply of food rations to Chinese residents. Based on the provincial freshwater culture panel data of China from 2007 to 2014, this paper explores the pattern changes of freshwater culture regions in China, and uses the global Moran's I index to investigate the spatial correlation of freshwater culture zones. And through the construction of spatial Doberman panel model to analyze the impact factors of industrial pattern change. The results show that the freshwater culture industry in China has the characteristics of "southeast heat and cold northwest", and the spatial correlation between provinces is significant year by year. Raising the level of regional economic development will have a positive effect on the quantity of freshwater culture. Reflecting the change of freshwater culture industry from extensive management to intensive management in China, the negative indirect effect of "over-culture" and environmental pollution on freshwater resources will slow down the development of freshwater culture. There is no contradiction between the development of aquaculture and the process of urbanization. In the future, the supply of fresh water products can be stable and sustainable, and become an important guarantee of national food security and food safety. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the development of freshwater aquaculture industry from three aspects: rationally planning the regional pattern of freshwater culture, balancing the investment of technical extension funds among provinces and strengthening the supervision of water resources pollution.
【作者单位】：福建农林大学经济学院;福建省农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所;
【基金】：福建省自然科学基金项目(2016J01334) 福建省软科学项目(2016R01010048)资助
【分类号】：S964;F326.4

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