中国区域增长动力差异与持续稳定增长

发布时间：2018-05-25 21:11

本文选题：增长动力 + 增长减缓　；参考：《经济学动态》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文通过对各省增长状况的对比分析,认清区域增长特征和增长动力源泉,寻找通过及时有效转换增长动力机制,实现区域经济持续稳定增长和挖掘新的增长动力的内在机制。研究发现:首先,中国正处于工业化后期增长阶段,已经成功跨过中等偏高收入门槛,成为中等偏高收入国家。中国过半数省份集中在第四增长阶段,有近20%的省份已跨过第五增长阶段收入门槛,人均收入高于11000美元。其次,中国当前面临连续增长减缓的可能较大,处于高增长阶段的省份因外向型程度较高在2007年左右发生连续增长减缓,而多数省份增长减缓迹象集中表现在2010年之后。最后,对区域代表性省份增长动力分析发现,东部区域增长表现较好的省份产业转型较为成功,依靠高端制造业和服务业发展,经济增长较为稳定;中西部地区增长分化较为严重,东北三省及山西、河北因长期积累的产业结构和经济结构问题,旧有产业面临产能过剩和改革瓶颈,经济出现断崖式下跌。对中西部增长较落后的省份而言,应多注重投资和产业转移对增长的拉动作用,随着增长水平的提高和消费结构的改善,再适时进行产业结构转型和发展服务业,转换增长动力机制,实现经济持续稳定增长。本文对中国连续增长减缓不同时期以及处于不同收入阶段省份增长动力之源进行了实证分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the comparative analysis of the growth situation of the provinces, this paper recognizes the regional growth characteristics and the sources of the growth power, and looks for the internal mechanism to realize the sustained and stable growth of the regional economy and excavate the new growth motive force through the timely and effective transformation of the growth motive mechanism. First of all, China is in the late stage of industrialization and has successfully crossed the middle high income threshold and become a middle high income country. More than half of China's provinces are concentrated in the fourth phase of growth, and nearly 20 percent have passed the fifth growth threshold, with a per capita income of more than $11000. Second, China is now likely to face a sustained slowdown in growth, with the provinces in the high-growth stage experiencing a sustained slowdown around 2007 due to the high degree of extroversion, while the signs of slowdown in most provinces are concentrated after 2010. Finally, through the analysis of the growth power of the representative provinces in the region, it is found that the industrial transformation of the provinces with better growth performance in the eastern region is more successful, and the economic growth is more stable depending on the development of high-end manufacturing and service industries. The growth and differentiation of the central and western regions is more serious. Due to the long-term accumulation of industrial structure and economic structure problems, the old industries are facing overcapacity and bottleneck of reform, and the economy is falling precipitously in the three northeastern provinces and Shanxi and Hebei provinces. For the provinces with backward growth in the central and western regions, more attention should be paid to the pull effect of investment and industrial transfer on growth. With the improvement of the growth level and the improvement of the consumption structure, the industrial structure transformation and the development of the service industry should be carried out in good time. We will transform the growth motive mechanism to achieve sustained and stable economic growth. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the driving force of the growth of provinces in different periods and in different income stages.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“加快经济结构调整与促进经济自主协调发展研究”(12&ZD084);国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国城市规模、空间集聚与管理模式研究”(15&AJL013) 中国博士后科学基金(第60批)面上项目“中国人力资本配置扭曲、结构转型与效率模式重塑研究”(2016M601207)资助
【分类号】：F127

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