长三角地区产业结构变迁的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 17:02

本文关键词：长三角地区产业结构变迁的就业效应研究　出处：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：产业结构的变迁是经济增长的基础,同时是劳动力实现就业的实质载体,一个国家或地区的经济健康发展需要建立在产业结构和就业的协调上,从本质上来说,是要求资源的合理配置。研究产业结构变迁既能够掌握宏观经济的趋势,又可以预测微观就业的状况,在制定促进就业的政策上有着重要的指导意义。如今中国的高速经济增长并没有带来就业的协调发展,就业问题不仅表现在劳动力数量供大于求,还表现在供给和需求结构上的不匹配。不可避免的是,产业结构的升级将带来更多就业问题,诸如大学生就业难、在东南沿海城市大量农民工“返乡潮”、“用工荒”等。作为全国经济最发达的地区之一,长三角地区对劳动力的需求数量巨大且范围广泛,其产业结构升级改变了劳动力原来的就业发展路径。如果不能够充分考虑长三角地区劳动群体的就业情况,合理调整和发展产业,那么将影响长三角地区,甚至全国经济的可持续发展。目前,国内外学者对于产业结构对就业的影响这一领域有着广泛的研究,但大多数学者无论是在理论还是实证上,都是从全国宏观层面的省级数据入手,现阶段几乎没有国内学者针对区域进行产业结构的就业效应研究,而产业结构的变迁对就业的影响存在着明显的地区差异。因此,本文将着眼于长三角地区,从理论和实证两方面因地制宜地分析产业结构的变迁对其就业的影响。首先,本文以产业结构变迁的就业效应传统模型和二元经济结构模型为理论基础,分析长三角地区产业结构与就业结构的变迁与现状,发现第二和第三产业的产业就业结构偏离度均为负数且偏离零值越来越远,产业结构与就业结构的协调性较弱。然后,通过分析产业结构和就业结构的影响因素,提炼出产业结构变迁影响就业的作用机制；接着在长三角地区的16个城市数据基础上,建立面板数据模型进行实证分析,结果显示,第二产业和第三产业的发展对长三角地区的就业效应均为负向,第二产业产值占比影响较显著,第三产业产值占比影响较弱,反映了目前长三角地区产业结构的快速发展与升级给就业带来了破坏性的影响。最后根据理论与实证的分析结果,为加强长三角地区产业结构对就业的促进作用,因地制宜地从三次产业发展、产业组织、劳动力市场等角度提出若干政策与建议。
[Abstract]:The change of industrial structure is the foundation of economic growth, at the same time is the essential carrier of labor employment, a country or region's economic healthy development needs to be established in the coordination of industrial structure and employment, in essence, is the rational allocation of resources. The changes of requirements of industrial structure can not only grasp the macroeconomic trends, and can predict the micro employment situation, has important guiding significance in formulating policies to promote employment.
Now the high-speed economic growth China does not lead to the coordinated development of employment, the employment problem is not only reflected in the number of labor oversupply, but also does not match the supply and demand structure. Inevitably, the upgrading of industrial structure will lead to more employment problems, such as the difficult employment of college students, in the southeastern coastal city of a large number of migrant workers "the tide", "labor shortage". As one of the most developed areas of the national economy, the demand for labor in the Yangtze River Delta region a large number and wide range, the upgrading of the industrial structure has changed the original labor employment development path. If you are not able to fully consider the employment situation of labor groups in the Yangtze River Delta region, the reasonable adjustment and development of industry, so the influence of the Yangtze River Delta region, and even the sustainable development of the national economy.
At present, domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of industrial structure on employment in this field has been widely investigated, but most of the scholars both in theory and practice, are starting from the national macro level data at the provincial level, at present almost no domestic scholars study on the employment effect of industrial structure in the area, and the transformation of industry the structure of the impact on employment has obvious regional differences. Therefore, this article will focus on the Yangtze River Delta region, according to the analysis of impact of changes in the industrial structure on the employment from two aspects of theory and empirical.
First of all, based on the traditional model of the employment effect of industrial structure change and economic structure of two yuan model as the theoretical basis, analysis of the change and current situation of the Yangtze River Delta region of the industrial structure and employment structure, found to deviate from the employment structure of the second industries and the third industry are all negative and zero deviation more and more far, weak coordination between industrial structure and employment structure.
Then, through the analysis of influence factors of industrial structure and employment structure, refines the mechanism of impact of industrial structure of employment; then the 16 city data base in the Yangtze River Delta region, the establishment of panel data model for empirical analysis. The results show that the development of the second industry and the third industry employment effect of the Yangtze River Delta region was negative second, industrial output value accounted for a significant effect, third industry output value accounted for the impact of weak, reflecting the destructive influences of the current rapid development and upgrading of industrial structure in Yangtze River Delta region to obtain employment.
Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, in order to enhance the promoting role of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta region, and put forward some policies and suggestions from the perspective of three industries development, industrial organization and labor market, we should adjust measures to local conditions.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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