中部地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系的研究分析

发布时间：2018-01-25 11:06

本文关键词： 碳排放能源消费经济增长 Tapio脱钩理论 VAR　出处：《华中师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过国内外相关参考文献的研究方法的借鉴,采用理论与实际相结合的方法对中部地区能源消费、二氧化碳排放与中部地区经济增长三者之间的关系进行了理论基础和计量方法上的研究。本文首先介绍了可持续性发展理论以及3E系统原理,然后分析了中部地区能源消费、二氧化碳排放以及经济增长的现状,最后以所收集的相关资料和数据为依据,通过数学模型的建立来研究三者之间的关系,其中包括三者时间序列的平稳性检验、协整关系的分析、脉冲响应、方差分析以及格兰杰因果关系的检验。对于中部地区能源消费和经济增长的分析研究,不仅有效研究了中部地区能源消费与经济增长间的短期关系,而且能够通过建立误差修正模型来研究它们的长期关系。同时采用Tapio脱钩分析法对于中部地区二氧化碳排放和经济增长进行了研究。最后构建向量自回归模型VAR来研究三者之间的短期和长期关系,运用方法的检验来验证这三者的关系。基于这些研究理论及对真实数据的实证研究分析,尝试在中部地区经济高速发展的过程中得到一些解决问题的方法,发现中部地区增长依赖于能源消费,能源消费在很大程度上直接决定着中部地区经济增长,能源消费总量的增加可以带动经济增长,中部地区经济增长类型属于能源依赖型,两者短期内出现波动现象,然而长期来看,两者确实存在非常稳定的均衡关系；中部地区对于煤炭的依赖度没有改变,经济结构的重工业化的倾向严重以及在新能源领域的探索不足,这些严重阻碍今后中部地区的节能减排工作。本文结合这些结论提出了一些建设性的建议,比如需要转变我们的发展观念,提高我们保护环境、珍惜不可再生资源的意识,实现中部地区集约式增长,提高不可再生资源的质量和利用率,实现以低消耗、低污染,高附加值的经济发展方式；加大对水电厂基础设施的建设力度以及大力发展核电站,努力改变能源生产和消费结构；建立良好的发展新能源研发机制,鼓励新能源开发以及利用方面的创新,提高不可再生资源的利用水平。本文仅通过三个时间序列来表示能源消费、碳排放以及经济增长,可能导致“3E”系统简单化,对于以后的研究者来说,可以尝试构建更加合理更加复杂的“3E”系统；随着社会不断进步,产生二氧化碳的方式会出现不同的形式,这样用来测量碳排放的手段也会出现不同的方式,本文的测量方法和代表指标比较单一,可以在此基础上进行不断的丰富。
[Abstract]:Based on the research methods of domestic and foreign related references, this paper uses the method of combining theory and practice to the energy consumption in the central region. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in central China is studied on the theoretical basis and measurement methods. Firstly, the theory of sustainable development and the 3e system principle are introduced in this paper. Then it analyzes the current situation of energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the central region. Finally, based on the relevant information and data collected, the relationship between the three is studied through the establishment of mathematical model. It includes the stationary test of three time series, the analysis of cointegration, impulse response, variance analysis and Granger causality test, and the analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in the central region. It not only effectively studies the short-term relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the central region. Moreover, the long-term relationship between them can be studied by establishing error correction model. At the same time, the Tapio decoupling analysis method is used to study the carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the central region. Finally, the vector self-return is constructed. Return model VAR to study the relationship between the three short-term and long-term. Based on these theories and empirical analysis of real data, we try to get some methods to solve the problems in the process of rapid economic development in the central region. It is found that the growth of the central region depends on energy consumption, and the energy consumption directly determines the economic growth of the central region to a large extent, and the increase of the total amount of energy consumption can promote economic growth. The type of economic growth in the central region belongs to the type of energy dependence, which fluctuates in the short term. However, in the long run, there is a very stable equilibrium relationship between the two. Central China's dependence on coal has not changed, the economic structure of the heavy industrial trend is serious and in the field of new energy exploration is insufficient. These seriously hinder the energy conservation and emission reduction work in the central region in the future. Based on these conclusions, this paper puts forward some constructive suggestions, such as the need to change our concept of development and improve our environmental protection. Cherish the consciousness of non-renewable resources, realize intensive growth in the central region, improve the quality and utilization of non-renewable resources, and realize the economic development mode of low consumption, low pollution and high added value; Increase the construction of hydropower plant infrastructure and vigorously develop nuclear power plants, efforts to change the structure of energy production and consumption; We should establish a good mechanism for developing new energy, encourage innovation in the development and utilization of new energy, and raise the level of utilization of non-renewable resources. This paper uses only three time series to express energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, which may lead to the "3e" system simplification, for future researchers. You can try to build a more rational and complex "3e" system; With the continuous progress of society, the way to produce carbon dioxide will appear in different forms, so the means used to measure carbon emissions will also appear in different ways. The measurement methods and representative indicators of this paper are relatively single. On this basis can continue to enrich.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F426.2;F205;F224

【参考文献】