我国企业对东盟直接投资的风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 12:15

本文关键词： 东盟对外直接投资风险物元可拓模型　出处：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和区域经济一体化的不断发展,中国政府积极参与全球经济的合作与竞争,鼓励中国企业到东盟进行投资,东盟是中国极具发展潜力的贸易伙伴。但是由于东盟各国的经济发展水平差距很大,政治环境、社会传统、宗教信仰等方面不尽相同,所以仍然存在较大的投资风险。另外,学术界对投资东盟的风险方面的相关研究虽然有很大突破,但是仍然存在一些不足,尤其是对具有中国特色的风险研究有限,缺乏系统地阐述我国企业对东盟投资所面临的风险,无法判断风险等级。因此本文对我国企业投资东盟的风险问题进行研究具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文首先介绍了风险研究的相关背景和理论,说明了研究我国企业投资东盟的风险的重要意义及必要性。接着运用定性和定量相结合的方法,对中国企业投资东盟的现状进行了分析,主要包括投资的规模、国别分布和行业分布三方面。然后确定了中国企业投资东盟的风险表现形式,包括政治风险、经济风险、文化风险、法律风险、金融风险。同时,结合中航油(新加坡)案例,总结其失败遭遇的风险,以及成功的原因。接下来,本文重点构建了对东盟直接投资的风险评价指标体系。首先,选取政治风险、经济风险、投资风险、竞争风险和其他风险为一级评价指标,确定各指标包含的二级、三级指标；其次,运用专家打分法和层次分析法确定各级指标权重,并结合数据资料,对各级评价指标赋值打分；最后,运用线性代数的方法求取各一级指标的分值。接着本文建立了关于上述风险评价指标体系的物元可拓模型,运用关联函数评定各国风险等级。最后,根据研究结果,分国别提出相应的对策建议,达到风险防范的目的。通过研究本文得出这样的结论：第一,从数量上看,中国企业对东盟直接投资的绝对规模在稳定扩大,但是相对规模整体较小；国别分布极不平衡,主要流入新加坡；行业主要涉及电力、热力、燃气及水的生产和供应业、采矿业等行业。第二,中国对东盟直接投资面临的风险主要包括政治风险、经济风险、文化风险、法律风险和金融风险。中航油(新加坡)公司失败主要是因为经营风险、金融风险和法律风险。第三,实证结果,对东盟各国的风险等级评价基本符合实际情况。从整体上看文莱、新加坡和老挝属于较低风险国家,投资环境良好；柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国和越南属于中等风险国家；缅甸、印度尼西亚和菲律宾属于较高风险的国家。本文创新之处在于定量评定了东盟各国的直接投资风险等级,丰富了现有的关于东盟投资风险的研究。但难免有很多不足之处,有待进一步改进。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of economic globalization and regional economic integration, the Chinese government actively participates in the global economic cooperation and competition, and encourages Chinese enterprises to invest in ASEAN. ASEAN is a potential trading partner of China. However, due to the wide economic development level of ASEAN countries, the political environment, social traditions, religious beliefs and other aspects are not the same. Therefore, there is still a large investment risk. In addition, the academic community on the risk of ASEAN investment although there is a great breakthrough, but there are still some deficiencies. Especially, the research on the risks with Chinese characteristics is limited, and the risks faced by Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN are not expounded systematically. Therefore, this paper has certain theoretical and practical significance to study the risk of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN. Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant background and theory of risk research. This paper explains the significance and necessity of studying the risk of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN, and then analyzes the current situation of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN by using qualitative and quantitative methods, mainly including the scale of investment. Then it determines the risk forms of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN, including political risk, economic risk, cultural risk, legal risk, financial risk. Combined with the case of China Aviation Oil (Singapore), summarizes the risk of its failure, and the reasons for success. Next, this paper focuses on the construction of the ASEAN direct investment risk evaluation index system. First, select the political risk. The economic risk, investment risk, competition risk and other risk are the primary evaluation indexes, and the second and third grade indexes are determined. Secondly, the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process are used to determine the weight of index at all levels, and combined with the data, the evaluation index at all levels is assigned a score. Finally, we use the method of linear algebra to get the scores of each first-order index. Then, we establish the matter-element extension model about the risk evaluation index system mentioned above, and use the correlation function to evaluate the risk grade of each country. Finally. According to the results of the study, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward by countries to achieve the purpose of risk prevention. Through the study of this paper, we draw such a conclusion: first, from a quantitative point of view. The absolute scale of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in ASEAN is expanding steadily, but the relative scale is relatively small. The distribution of countries is very uneven, mainly into Singapore; Industry mainly involves power, heat, gas and water production and supply, mining and other industries. Second, China's direct investment in ASEAN faces risks including political risk, economic risk, cultural risk. Legal risk and financial risk. The failure of China Aviation Oil (Singapore) is mainly due to operational risk, financial risk and legal risk. Third, empirical results. On the whole, Brunei, Singapore and Laos belong to the lower risk countries, and the investment environment is good; Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are medium-risk countries; Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines are high risk countries. The innovation of this paper is the quantitative evaluation of the risk of direct investment in ASEAN countries. It enriches the existing research on ASEAN investment risk, but it inevitably has many shortcomings and needs to be further improved.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F279.2;F125

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