湖南省城镇化与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 15:16

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：经济增长　出处：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化和经济增长是中国经济社会发展的两大重要主题，两者关系紧密并且相互促进。城镇化是新时期中国经济增长的引擎，经济增长是城镇化水平不断提高的根本推动力。湖南省作为人口大省，2012年末常住人口达到6638.9万人，位居全国第8位，城镇化率为46.65%，低于全国平均水平，并且2012年湖南省经济总量位居全国第10位，人均GDP却排在第20位。如何在保证湖南省经济快速平稳增长的同时，健康有序地推进城镇化进程，使城镇化与经济增长之间形成良性互动。这就需要我们深入研究湖南省城镇化与经济增长之间的互动关系。首先，通过阅读和整理国内外相关文献，，梳理了两者相互作用的理论基础和影响机制。在理论分析的基础上，既从历史进程、发展水平、区域协调性和农民工问题4个方面对湖南省城镇化建设的现状进行概述，也从经济增长总量、增长速度、地区差异以及产业结构4个方面分析湖南省经济增长的现状。其次，选取1978-2012年湖南省城镇化率与人均GDP的数据，构建对数模型，运用动态计量分析方法。得到两个主要结论：一是湖南省人均实际地区生产总值是城镇化水平的格兰杰原因，即人均GDP的变动引起城镇化率的变动，反之不成立；二是湖南省人均实际GDP每增加10个百分点，将带来城镇化水平提高1.28个百分点。接下来选取2001-2012年14个市州的面板数据，以地区生产总值、城镇化率、年末从业人数、全社会固定资产投资额4个变量构建扩展的柯布道格拉斯生产函数模型，旨在研究湖南省各市州城镇化水平对经济增长的贡献大小。得到的结论是：长沙、株洲、怀化和湘西自治州4个城市的城镇化系数没有通过变量的显著性检验；在通过检验的10个城市中，依据城镇化水平对经济增长的贡献率由大到小排列为：娄底、湘潭、郴州、张家界、益阳、邵阳、岳阳、常德、永州、衡阳。最后，对理论分析和实证检验的结论作一个系统的总结，结合湖南省的经济发展和城镇化建设的现状，为湖南省推进城镇化建设提出有理论依据、有数据支撑和可操作性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and economic growth are the two major themes of China's economic and social development, which are closely related and mutually promoted. Urbanization is the engine of China's economic growth in the new period. Economic growth is the fundamental driving force for the continuous improvement of urbanization. Hunan Province, as a large province with a population of sixty-six million three hundred and eighty-nine thousand inhabitants in end of 2012, ranks eighth in the country. The urbanization rate is 46.65, which is lower than the national average. In 2012, Hunan Province ranked 10th in total economic output and 20th in per capita GDP. How to promote the urbanization process in a healthy and orderly manner while ensuring rapid and steady economic growth in Hunan Province, It is necessary for us to study the interaction between urbanization and economic growth in Hunan Province. First of all, by reading and sorting out the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper combs the theoretical basis and influence mechanism of the interaction between the two, on the basis of theoretical analysis, both from the historical process, the level of development, This paper summarizes the present situation of urbanization construction in Hunan Province from four aspects of regional coordination and migrant workers, and analyzes the present situation of economic growth in Hunan Province from four aspects: total economic growth, growth speed, regional differences and industrial structure. Secondly, taking the data of urbanization rate and per capita GDP from 1978 to 2012 in Hunan Province, a logarithmic model is constructed. Using the method of dynamic econometric analysis, two main conclusions are drawn: first, the per capita per capita GDP of Hunan Province is the Granger reason of urbanization level, that is, the change of per capita GDP causes the change of urbanization rate, otherwise it does not hold true; Second, every 10 percentage point increase in actual GDP per capita in Hunan Province will bring about an increase of 1.28 percentage points in the level of urbanization. Next, select the panel data of 14 cities from 2001 to 2012, using the regional gross domestic product, the urbanization rate, and the number of employees at the end of the year. This paper constructs the extended Cobb Douglas production function model based on four variables of fixed asset investment in the whole society. The purpose of this model is to study the contribution of urbanization level to economic growth in various cities and states of Hunan Province. The conclusion is: Changsha, Zhuzhou, Zhuzhou, Hunan Province, China. The urbanization coefficient of 4 cities in Huaihua and Xiangxi autonomous prefectures has not passed the significance test of variables; in the 10 cities tested, the contribution rate of urbanization level to economic growth from big to small is: Loudi, Xiangtan, Chenzhou. Zhangjiajie, Yiyang, Shaoyang, Yueyang, Changde, Yongzhou, Hengyang. Finally, the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test is systematically summarized, combined with the economic development of Hunan Province and the current situation of urbanization construction, which provides a theoretical basis for the promotion of urbanization construction in Hunan Province. There are data support and operable countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F127;F224

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