全球化背景下中国经济周期波动的就业转移效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 23:18

本文选题：全球化 + 经济周期波动　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化的加速发展，对不同区域、国家或地区的经济活动空间格局和产业结构产生着重要影响。各种冲击的综合作用和特定国家或地区经济周期的跨国传导生成了世界经济周期。经济周期波动影响一切经济活动，作为国家宏观调控优先目标的人口就业必然受到经济周期波动的影响。中国正处在经济市场化进程中，就业结构存在着严重的不合理性，就业问题已然成为十分严峻的社会问题。2008年，在国际金融危机影响下，沿海不少外企撤资，促使就业形势发生扭转，大量劳动力失业返乡。2010年，由于国际经济形势回暖，沿海企业又出现招工难和用人荒，给中国劳动力就业问题的解决的增添了巨大压力。到2013年末，中国就业人员76977万人，其中城镇就业人员38240万人，大量农村富余劳动力向非农产业转移。经济周期波动对就业转移的影响不仅关系到经济发展和社会稳定，也关系到个人安居乐业的切身利益，因而有必要引起足够的重视。本文试图通过机制探讨和实证分析的方法，，深刻揭示在全球化背景下，中国经济周期波动对就业转移的影响。这一问题的解决，对中国经济持续健康发展以及如何应对当前就业问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文的主要内容包括：第一章，国内外关于经济周期波动和就业转移的研究现状，以及本文的研究目标和方法；第二章，经济周期波动与就业转移的理论分析，为后文奠定理论基础；第三章，全球化背景下中国经济周期波动与就业结构现状，为机制分析和实证分析提供现实依据；第四章，经济周期波动对就业转移的作用机制，选择经济增长、投资水平、工资水平和技术进步为就业转移的影响因素，包括直接和间接作用；第五章，基于联立方程模型的经济周期波动对区域就业转移的效应分析，分区域内和区域间效应；第六章，基于联立方程模型的经济周期波动对产业就业转移的效应分析，分产业内和产业间效应；第七章，在政策层面为促进中国就业的区域、产业均衡发展提出可行性建议；第八章，本文小节及研究展望。本文的创新点主要体现在：其一，在机制探讨层面，深入剖析了中国经济周期波动通过影响经济整体水平、投资因素、工资因素和技术因素对就业转移的传导机制；其二，在实证分析层面，使用联立方程模型，深刻揭示了中国经济周期波动如何通过区域和产业两个维度对就业转移的直接和间接影响；其三，在政策设计层面，科学提出了促进中国就业结构优化的区域和产业就业政策。
[Abstract]:The accelerated development of economic globalization has an important impact on the spatial pattern and industrial structure of economic activities in different regions, countries or regions.The comprehensive effects of various shocks and the transnational transmission of specific national or regional economic cycles generate the world economic cycle.The fluctuation of economic cycle affects all economic activities. As the priority of national macro-control, population employment is bound to be affected by the fluctuation of economic cycle.China is in the process of economic marketization, the employment structure has serious irrationality, the employment problem has become a very serious social problem. In 2008, under the influence of the international financial crisis, many foreign enterprises along the coast withdrew their capital.In 2010, due to the warming of the international economic situation, there were difficulties in hiring and shortage of employment in coastal enterprises, which added great pressure to the solution of the employment problem of Chinese labor force.By the end of 2013, China had 769.77 million employed people, of whom 382.4 million were employed in cities and towns, and a large number of surplus rural labor were transferred to non-agricultural industries.The impact of economic cycle fluctuation on employment transfer is not only related to economic development and social stability, but also to the vital interests of individuals living and working in peace and contentment, so it is necessary to pay enough attention to it.This paper attempts to reveal the impact of Chinese business cycle fluctuations on employment transfer under the background of globalization by means of mechanism discussion and empirical analysis.The solution of this problem has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustained and healthy development of Chinese economy and how to deal with the current employment problem.The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first chapter, the current situation of domestic and foreign research on business cycle fluctuation and employment transfer, as well as the research objectives and methods of this paper, the second chapter, the theoretical analysis of business cycle fluctuation and employment transfer,The third chapter, the current situation of Chinese business cycle fluctuation and employment structure under the background of globalization, provides the realistic basis for mechanism analysis and empirical analysis; the fourth chapter, the role mechanism of business cycle fluctuation on employment transfer, the third chapter, the current situation of China's economic cycle fluctuation and employment structure under the background of globalization, provides the realistic basis for mechanism analysis and empirical analysis.Economic growth, investment level, wage level and technological progress are selected as the influencing factors of employment transfer, including direct and indirect effects. Chapter 5, the effect of economic cycle fluctuation on regional employment transfer based on simultaneous equation model is analyzed.Chapter 6, the analysis of the effect of the economic cycle fluctuation on the industrial employment transfer based on the simultaneous equation model, the intra-industry and inter-industry effects; the seventh chapter, the policy level for promoting China's employment region,Put forward the feasible suggestion of industry balanced development; Chapter 8, this article section and research prospect.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, at the level of mechanism discussion, it deeply analyzes the transmission mechanism of Chinese economic cycle fluctuation to employment transfer through influencing the overall level of economy, investment factor, wage factor and technology factor.At the level of empirical analysis, using the simultaneous equation model, this paper deeply reveals how Chinese business cycle fluctuations affect employment transfer directly and indirectly through two dimensions of region and industry. Thirdly, at the level of policy design,The regional and industrial employment policies that promote the optimization of China's employment structure are put forward scientifically.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.8;F249.2

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