河北省经济发展与环境污染关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 11:41

本文选题：河北省 + 经济增长　；参考：《广西师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在三次工业革命之后,全球人口急剧增加,经济快速发展。人类从大自然获取越来越多的资源,向大自然丢弃的废物也越来越多,大自然被改造的程度越来越大,以致破坏了原有的生态平衡,造成了非常严重的环境污染问题。众多严重污染事件在全球各国发生并危害当地居民以及邻国人民的生命健康,造成非常惨重的后果。“三废”、农药污染、噪音污染、光化学污染等各类污染物越来越严重,导致新鲜的空气、纯净的水、安宁的环境、大气和海洋的化学组成成分都已成了稀缺资源,并具有了直接经济价值。环境质量如空气质量、水质量等恶化引发的一系列灾难性问题已引起了世界各国的关注,它阻碍了全球人们的日常生活和经济的可持续健康发展,还密切关系到全人类和子孙后代的共同长远利益。自20世纪70年代起,联合国及其相关机构就召开了一系列国际会议,探讨人类需要面对和亟待解决的环境污染问题。这些频繁的大型国际会议和活动,说明70年代以来环境问题已成为全球各国共同关注的一个非常重要的社会、经济、技术问题。我国也同样面临着严重的环境污染问题,改革开放以来我国经济的快速增长主要建立在自然资源和非再生能源的高消耗基础上。过度、低效地使用自然资源来实现经济发展,即经济粗放式增长,造成了我国生态环境的日趋恶化,使得经济与环境相斥。这些环境污染和生态被严重破坏的问题造成我国经济发展和民生建设道路上的巨大阻碍。河北省的环境污染问题在全国最严重,研究河北省的经济发展与环境污染关系,具有实际意义。本文选取1995年到2011年河北省经济指标和环境指标的时间序列数据,建立双变量VAR模型,并通过广义脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验,对河北省近年来经济增长和环境污染之间长期动态的相互作用机制进行实证分析。本文选取人均GDP作为经济指标,选取工业废水排放量、工业固体废物排放量、二氧化硫排放量作为污染指标,所建立的VAR模型为包括以上三个环境污染指标和人均GDP的双变量系统。进行广义脉冲响应函数分析,首先要对所选取的时序变量进行平稳性检验,即单位根检验,广义脉冲响应函数分析用来检测河北省经济经济增长与环境污染之间长期的双向动态的影响机制；通过协整分析可判断经济增长和各项污染指标之间是否存在协整关系；Granger因果检验用来确定经济发展与环境污染的两个变量是否为彼此变化的原因,两者之间是否有因果关系。广义脉冲响应函数的冲击响应结果表明：河北省的经济增长是影响环境污染的一个重要因素；另一方面,环境污染也会阻碍着经济的发展,但具有一定的滞后效应；协整分析结果表明,河北省经济增长和环境污染指标之间存在长期稳定的协整关系；Granger因果关系检验结果表明,经济增长是环境污染加剧的单方面重要原因,但环境污染显然不是经济增长的原因。研究河北省环境污染与经济发展之间的相互影响关系,进而为河北省经济发展与治理环境污染问题提供可借鉴的建议,对提升河北省的综合实力具有重大的理论意义和实践意义。
[Abstract]:After the three industrial revolution, the global population increased dramatically, the rapid development of the economy. People get more and more from nature to nature resources, discarded waste is also increasing, the transformation of the nature is more and more, resulting in destruction of the original ecological balance, resulting in the serious environmental pollution problems. Many serious pollution the event in the world and harm local residents and neighbors of the life and health of people, causing very serious consequences. "Three wastes", pesticide pollution, noise pollution, photochemical pollution of various pollutants is more and more serious, leading to fresh air, pure water, peaceful environment, chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans have become the scarcity of resources, and has a direct economic value. The environmental quality such as air quality, water quality deterioration caused by a series of disastrous problem has caused the world. Note that it hinders the global people's daily life and economic sustainable development, but also closely related to the human offspring and the long-term common interests.
Since 1970s, the United Nations and its related agencies have held a series of international conferences on human need to face and solve the problem of environmental pollution. These frequent large-scale international conferences and activities that environmental problems since 70s has become a very important social concern, the world economy, China's technical problems. It is also facing serious environmental pollution problems, since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is mainly based on high consumption of basic natural resources and non renewable energy. Excessive, inefficient use of natural resources to achieve economic development, namely the extensive economic growth in our country, caused the deterioration of ecological environment, the the economic and environmental repulsion. These environmental pollution and ecological damage problems caused by the huge obstacle path of China's economic development and people's livelihood construction in Hebei province. The most serious environmental pollution problems in the country, the research of Hebei Province Economic Development and environmental pollution, which has practical significance. This paper selects the time series data of 1995 to 2011 of Hebei Province Economic and environmental indexes, a bivariate VAR model, and the generalized impulse response function and Granger causality test in Hebei Province, the interaction mechanism between the economic growth and environmental pollution in recent years, the long-term dynamic empirical analysis.
This paper selects GDP per capita as economic indicators, selection of industrial wastewater emissions, industrial solid waste emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions as a pollution index, the established VAR model for bivariate system includes more than three environmental pollution indicators and GDP per capita. The generalized impulse response function analysis, first of all to the stationary test of the timing variables the selected, namely the unit root test, generalized impulse response function analysis is used to detect the influence mechanism of bidirectional dynamic long-term between Hebei Province Economic Growth and environmental pollution; through cointegration analysis can be the existence of cointegration relationship between the judgment of economic growth and pollution indicators; Granger causality test is used to determine the economic development and the two variables environmental pollution is due to each other changes, whether there is a causal relationship between the two. The generalized impulse response function of the impulse response results table The economic growth of Hebei province is an important factor in the impact of environmental pollution; on the other hand, environmental pollution will also hinder the development of economy, but has a certain lag effect; cointegration analysis results show that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between the economic growth of Hebei province and the environmental pollution index; Granger causality the test results show that economic growth is an important reason for unilateral worsening environmental pollution, but environmental pollution is not the cause of economic growth in Hebei province. The interaction between environmental pollution and economic development of relations, so as to provide suggestions for Hebei economic development and environmental pollution problems, it has great theoretical significance and practical significance to enhance the comprehensive strength of Hebei province.

【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F124

【参考文献】