江西省绿色全要素生产率的测算

发布时间：2018-04-29 15:23

本文选题：全要素生产率 + 绿色全要素生产率　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：全要素生产率(TFP)是促进经济增长的重要因素,同时又可以作为评判经济增长质量的重要标准之一。在“十一五”和“十二五”期间江西省经济社会发展虽然取得了重大成就,但随着全国环境污染日趋严重,在今后考虑经济发展的同时全国各省区市都不得不关注环境问题,这时绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)更能科学反映当前能源与环境约束下的区域经济发展质量。“十三五”时期江西省依旧面临发展不足的主要矛盾,新的挑战也愈加增多。因此,通过“十一五”和“十二五”期间江西省绿色TFP的测算与分析进行江西省经济增长因素分析,是对江西最近十年来实际发展的总结提升,也是符合自身发展规律,切合实际的。本文研究对2016年江西在“十三五”规划纲要提出的总目标具有非常重要的意义,以及适应供给侧改革具有借鉴意义。本文主要运用DEA-Malmquist指数先测算2006-2015年江西省11个地级市的全要素生产率和江西省总量全要生产率,再测算江西省总量绿色全要素生产率。在测算江西省总量全要素生产率和绿色全要素生产率时都采用2006-2015年全国30个省区市(剔除西藏,数据缺失严重)省级面板数据,针对江西省测算结果与全国其它省区市结果进行比较分析,再从不同时期比较分析江西省TFP和绿色TFP的变化趋势。其次运用了永续盘存法来估算各省区市2007-2015年的资本存量,资本存量是测算TFP时的一个重要投入变量,资本存量基期选择2006年,2006年的资本存量借鉴前人研究的成果。还运用了熵值法来拟合环境污染综合指数,环境污染综合指数在测算绿色TFP时的一个重要产出变量,本文采取环境综合指数的倒数作为非期望产出数据。利用DEA-Malmquist指数测算江西省11个地级市2006-1015年TFP结果可知,新余市的全要素生产率指数最高,依次排名为新余、南昌、宜春、景德镇、九江、萍乡和上饶并列、吉安、抚州、赣州、鹰潭。利用Levinsohn-Petrin半参数法测算江西省11个地级市2010-2015年TFP结果可知,平均TFP排名高低依次为南昌、九江、萍乡、抚州、宜春、景德镇、吉安、赣州、新余、上饶、鹰潭。在江西省与全国其它省区市TFP的测算结果可知,江西省全要素生产率指数为0.977,比全国平均值0.978略低,在全要素生产率指数排名中江西和福建并列排在第14名。在江西省与全国其它省区市绿色TFP测算结果可知,江西省绿色全要素生产率指数为1.013,比全国平均值0.982高,排名第7,仅比北京、天津、上海、江苏、浙江和重庆低。在考虑能源消耗和环境污染的情况下,江西省全要素生产率提升了,和其它省区市相比江西省经济发展在控制环境污染方面还是做的比较好的,在经济发展过程中以能源和环境作为代价不大,是健康、绿色、可持续发展的。但从不同时期来看江西省全要素生产率与绿色全要素生产率变化情况,总体呈下降趋势,说明经济增长质量不高,环境污染也在加剧。从最后对绿色全要素生产率的影响因素分析中,得知产业结构对其影响显著为正,环境规制、能源消费结构、贸易开放度、政府市场化程度以及环境规制和政府市场化程度的交互项对其影响显著为负。最后给出一些政策建议,江西省应该优化产业结构,提高产业组织集中度,引进先进技术,注重创新,使用环境友好型的生产技术,使企业排污设施更加先进。在环境保护力度上,倡导人人保护环境,从个人做起,减少环境污染,政府合理利用在环境污染治理的投资,增强投资效果。应该优化能源结构,积极开发新能源,增加清洁能源,使之在能源消费总量中的比重提升。在对外开放水平方面,善于利用国外先进技术,注重对外资企业进入的审核,主要引入高新技术、节能环保型企业,加大出口产品中的技术含量,提升国际竞争力。政府在财政支出中优化支出结构,并注意对市场的干预度,不要过于干预。
[Abstract]:Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important factor to promote economic growth. At the same time, it can also be one of the important criteria to judge the quality of economic growth. In the period of "11th Five-Year" and "12th Five-Year", the economic and social development of Jiangxi province has made great achievements, but with the increasingly serious environmental pollution in the whole country, the economic development in the future is considered in the same way. All the provinces and municipalities in the whole country have to pay attention to the environmental problems. At this time, the green total factor productivity (GTFP) can more scientifically reflect the quality of regional economic development under the constraints of current energy and environment. In the "13th Five-Year" period, Jiangxi still faced the main contradiction of lack of development, and the new challenges were increasing. Therefore, through "11th Five-Year" and "ten" The calculation and analysis of Jiangxi green TFP during the period of Jiangxi province analysis of the economic growth factors in Jiangxi province is a summary and promotion of the actual development of Jiangxi in the last ten years. It is also in line with its own development law and practical. This paper is of great significance to the overall goal of the "13th Five-Year" plan of Jiangxi in 2016. And adapting to the supply side reform is of reference significance. This paper mainly uses the DEA-Malmquist index to calculate the total factor productivity of 11 cities in Jiangxi province and the total total productivity of Jiangxi Province in 2006-2015 years, and then calculates the total green factor productivity of Jiangxi province. The total factor productivity and green total factor production in Jiangxi province are calculated. At the rate, the provincial panel data are used in 30 provinces and municipalities (excluding Tibet and the lack of data are serious) in 2006-2015 years. Compared with the results of Jiangxi province and other provinces and regions in China, the change trend of TFP and green TFP in Jiangxi province is compared and analyzed from different periods. Secondly, the perpetual inventory method is used to estimate the 200 provinces and municipalities. 7-2015 years of capital stock, capital stock is an important input variable when calculating TFP. The capital stock base period is selected in 2006. The capital stock in 2006 is used for reference to the results of predecessors' research. Taking the reciprocal of the environmental comprehensive index as the undesired output data, using the DEA-Malmquist index to calculate the 2006-1015 year TFP results of 11 cities in Jiangxi Province, we can see that the total factor productivity index of Xinyu is the highest, and ranked as Xinyu, Nanchang, Yichun, Jingdezhen, Jiujiang, Pingxiang and Shangrao, Ji'an, Fuzhou, Ganzhou, Yingtan. Use Levinso Hn-Petrin semi parameter method is used to calculate the 2010-2015 year TFP results of 11 cities in Jiangxi province. The average ranking of the average TFP is Nanchang, Jiujiang, Pingxiang, Fuzhou, Yichun, Jingdezhen, Ji'an, Ganzhou, Xinyu, Shangrao, Yingtan. The total factor productivity index of the province is 0.977, and the total factor productivity index is 0.977. The average national value of 0.978 is slightly lower than that of Jiangxi and Fujian in the total factor productivity index ranking in Fourteenth place. In Jiangxi and other provinces and regions in Jiangxi, the green total factor productivity index is 1.013, higher than the national average of 0.982 and seventh, only lower than Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Chongqing. In the case of energy consumption and environmental pollution, the total factor productivity of Jiangxi has been improved. Compared with other provinces and municipalities, the economic development of Jiangxi province is still better in controlling the environmental pollution. In the process of economic development, the energy and environment are not very expensive, it is healthy, green, and sustainable. The overall factor productivity and green total factor productivity changes in Jiangxi Province, the overall decline trend, indicating that the quality of economic growth is not high, environmental pollution is also intensifying. From the final analysis of the factors affecting the green total factor productivity, it is found that the impact of industrial structure on it is positive, environmental regulation, energy consumption structure, trade opening. Degree, the degree of marketization of the government and the interaction of environmental regulation and the degree of government marketization are significantly negative. Finally, some policy suggestions are given. Jiangxi should optimize the industrial structure, improve the concentration of industrial organization, introduce advanced technology, pay attention to innovation and use environmentally friendly production technology to make enterprise sewage facilities more advanced. In environmental protection, we should advocate the protection of the environment, start from individuals, reduce environmental pollution, make rational use of investment in environmental pollution control and enhance the effect of investment. We should optimize the energy structure, actively develop new energy, increase clean energy and increase the proportion of the total energy consumption. In the use of advanced foreign technology, pay attention to the audit of foreign investment enterprises, mainly introduce high and new technology, energy saving and environment-friendly enterprises, increase the technical content of export products, improve the international competitiveness. The government should optimize the expenditure structure in financial expenditure, and pay attention to the intervention of the market, and do not intervene too much.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F127

【参考文献】