中国产业结构与经济增长研究:一个经济增长分解框架

发布时间：2018-05-07 19:19

本文选题：产业结构 + 经济增长　；参考：《社会科学辑刊》2017年04期

【摘要】：一般认为,进入新常态后,国民经济的基本特征之一就是结构调整导致增长速度的放缓。核算结构调整对经济增长的影响一般采用"偏离份额"法,但是既有偏离份额法将结构变动对经济增长的影响视为一个整体,难以准确把握某一部门份额变动对经济增长的影响。优化偏离份额法可以得出一个新的经济增长速度"分解公式"。在新的公式中,增长速度被分解为劳动数量效应、结构变迁效应和技术进步效应三部分,三种效应可以进一步细化至农业、工业和服务业部门,将产业结构调整对经济增长的影响细化至每个产业份额变动形成的结构变迁效应。实证结果显示,在中国,农业和工业份额的变动一直表现为提高增长速度的结构红利,服务业份额上升则从2002开始由结构红利转为成本病。因此,准确定位经济新常态下稳增长与调结构的关系,应更有针对性地发挥农业份额下降和工业份额上升的结构红利,以对冲消化服务业成本病引发的增速放缓,并推进经济增长动力逐步转向创新驱动。
[Abstract]:It is generally believed that one of the basic characteristics of the national economy is that the structural adjustment leads to the slowdown of the growth rate. The influence of the adjustment of accounting structure on economic growth generally adopts the "deviation share" method, but there is a deviation share method that considers the influence of structural changes to economic growth as a whole, and it is difficult to accurately grasp a certain department. In the new formula, the growth rate is divided into three parts: the labor quantity effect, the structural change effect and the technological progress effect, and the three effects can be further refined to the agriculture, industry and service sectors. The effect of industrial structure adjustment on economic growth is refined to the structural change effect of the changes in the share of each industry. The empirical results show that in China, the change of agricultural and industrial share has always been a structural bonus to increase the growth rate, and the increase in the share of service industry from 2002 to the cost disease. The relationship between the steady growth of the new normal economy and the structure of the adjustment should give full play to the structural dividend of the decline in the share of agriculture and the rise of the industrial share, to hedge the slowdown in the cost disease of the digestive service industry, and to push forward the impetus of economic growth to the innovation driven.

【作者单位】：曲阜师范大学经济学院;
【基金】：山东省社会科学规划基金项目(16DZLJ01)
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.1

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