转型时期中国中产阶级消费行为的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 22:25

本文选题：中产阶级 + 消费行为　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中产阶级对于我国经济的转型与发展具有重要意义。由于具有较为稳定的收入，中产阶级被寄予厚望，他们的消费潜力有助于经济增长进而推动我国经济由出口和投资主导向内需主导的增长模式转型。那么事实是否真的如此？中产阶级能否担此重任？本文以消费理论为依据，尝试对我国中产阶级的消费及其对于经济增长的影响进行系统全面的实证分析。全文共分为六个部分。绪论部分介绍了研究背景和意义，研究内容和方法，创新之处，重点对于相关研究进行了梳理和总结。第二部分对于全文研究的基础理论框架进行了介绍，重点是对于中产阶级概念的界定，以及中产阶级消费及其经济作用的机理。第三至第五部分进入到实证分析部分。首先利用世界银行的全球资产阶级标准实际测算了2003-2011年我国中产阶级的规模，在此基础上利用回归分析方法测算了中产阶级消费与中产阶级规模在增长中的作用。接着对于我国中产阶级的边际消费倾向进行了实证研究。依据绝对收入理论和相对收入理论，实际测算了我国中产阶级的边界消费倾向，并将其与上等收入阶层以及其他国家居民的消费倾向进行了对比研究。第五部分是对于中产阶级的消费结构进行了实证分析，通过将消费划分为生存型和发展型两类，详细考察并对比了中产阶级在不同商品和服务上的支出，并由此对于我国中产阶级的消费偏好进行了总结分析。本文的具体研究结论如下：本文采取世界银行的中产阶级界定标准，通过国家统计局的数据得出2003至2011年九年间，下产阶级由94.58%减小到76.45%，中产阶级由5.34%增大到19.69%，上产阶级也已经增加到总人口比重的3.86%，这也正是中国上、中、下三个阶级演化的趋势所在；并且观察三个阶级人口比重变化的斜率，可以知道下产阶级的斜率大于中产阶级，而中产阶级的斜率大于上产阶级，由此判断，下产阶级减少的速度大于中产阶级扩大的速度，大于上层阶级扩大的速度。而对于中产阶级对于经济增长的作用，本文得出中产阶级规模越大，GDP增长得越快。所以说合适的中产阶级规模在经济转型的过程中扮演着积极的角色。在消费方面，我们可以看到中产阶级的消费主要受当期收入的影响，中产阶级和全国最高收入户的消费函数仅符合凯恩斯绝对收入消费函数理论。也就是说，这是中产阶级为了与社会转型的步伐相适应，根据效用最大化原则，作出的最为有利的消费决策。并且中产阶级的消费倾向高于其他阶层。本文的实证研究结果表明，全国最高收入户的消费倾向为0.50，而中产阶级的消费倾向则高达0.58。我国中产阶级消费结构的纵向发展趋势主要表现为生存型消费资料的比重在不断提高，发展享受型消费资料的比重并没有像媒体们所说的不断上升。一方面，作为生存型消费资料的食品消费和衣着消费的比重大幅度在逐年增高，但总体上恩格尔系数低于35%。另一方面，由于转型时期的经济环境和政府政策影响，医疗、教育、居住在不断下降，但总体幅度不是很大，而交通通信消费所占比重在15%左右浮动。本文的实践内容仅以我国总体中产阶级为代表。虽然，中国总体中产阶级是最具代表性的研究对象，，但是由于我国国土面积较大，地区省份较多，不同地区的中产阶级的消费行为存在着地域的特点，这一研究还可以继续得到完善。
[Abstract]:The middle class is of great significance to the transformation and development of China's economy. Because of the stable income, the middle class is given high expectations, and their consumption potential helps economic growth to promote the transformation of China's economy from export and investment led to domestic demand. On the basis of consumption theory, this paper tries to make a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the consumption of the middle class in China and its influence on economic growth.
The full text is divided into six parts. The introduction introduces the background and significance of the research, the contents and methods of the research, the innovation, the emphasis on the related research and the summary. The second part introduces the basic theoretical framework of the full text research, focusing on the definition of the middle class concept, and the consumption of the middle class and its classics. The mechanism of economic action. The third to fifth parts entered the empirical analysis. First, the world bank's global bourgeois standard was used to measure the scale of the middle class in China for 2003-2011 years. On this basis, the regression analysis method was used to calculate the role of middle class consumption and the middle class scale in the growth. On the basis of absolute income theory and relative income theory, the marginal consumption tendency of the middle class in China is measured and compared with the consumption tendencies of the upper class and other countries. The fifth part is the consumption structure of the middle class. Through the empirical analysis, by dividing the consumption into two types of survival and development, we examine and compare the expenditure of the middle class on different goods and services in detail, and then summarize and analyze the consumption preference of the middle class in China.
This article adopts the standard of the world bank's middle class definition. Through the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it is concluded that from 2003 to nine years from 2003 to 2011, the lower production class was reduced from 94.58% to 76.45%, the middle class increased from 5.34% to 19.69%, and the upper class had also increased to 3.86% of the total population, which was also the trend of the upper and lower three classes in China. And to observe the slope of the change in the proportion of the three class population, it is possible to know that the slope of the lower class is greater than the middle class and the middle class is more inclined than the upper class, thus judging that the lower rate of the lower class is greater than that of the middle class, which is greater than that of the upper class. For long, the larger the middle class, the faster the GDP growth. Therefore, the right middle class scale plays a positive role in the process of economic transformation. In terms of consumption, we can see that the consumption of the middle class is mainly influenced by the current income, and the consumption function of the middle class and the highest income households in the country is only the only one. According to Keynes's theory of absolute income consumption function, that is to say, this is the most favorable consumption decision made by the middle class in order to adapt to the pace of social transformation and according to the principle of utility maximization. And the consumption tendency of the middle class is higher than that of the other classes. The tendency is 0.50, while the consumption tendency of the middle class is up to 0.58.. The vertical development trend of the consumption structure of the middle class in China is mainly manifested in the increasing proportion of the living consumption data, and the proportion of the development of the enjoyment type consumption data is not rising as the media said. On the one hand, the food elimination as the material for survival consumption. The proportion of expenses and clothing consumption is increasing year by year, but on the whole Engel coefficient is lower than 35%. on the other hand. Due to the economic environment and government policies in the transition period, medical, education, and residence are declining, but the overall range is not very large, and the proportion of traffic and communication costs is floating around 15%. The practice content of this article is only Although China's overall middle class is the representative. Although China's overall middle class is the most representative research object, the consumption behavior of the middle class in different regions has regional characteristics because of the larger territory and more provinces in China, and this study can be further improved.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1

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