中国低碳经济的影响因素及发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 16:59

本文选题：低碳经济 + 影响因素　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,全球气候变暖引发的极端恶劣天气频频发生,对人类的生存和社会的发展构成了严重威胁,愈演愈烈的温室效应也引起了各国政府和民众的广泛关注,因此,减少碳排放量、发展低碳经济已成为各国可持续发展的必然选择。中国作为一个发展中国家,正处于经济发展的关键时期,同时也面临着碳减排工作的巨大压力。在此背景下,研究中国低碳经济的影响因素及发展路径显得尤为重要。本文对影响中国低碳经济发展的因素进行了深入分析,并选取了全面反映这些因素的十项指标,根据1985年-2012年的相关数据,利用灰色关联分析法筛选出与低碳经济发展关联度较高的指标,对其与二氧化碳排放量进行协整分析并建立向量误差修正模型,以期从长期均衡和短期波动两个方面分析二氧化碳排放量与其主要影响因素之间的关系。在此基础上,对中国低碳经济的发展路径进行实证研究,将其主要影响因素加入环境库兹涅茨曲线模型中,拟合了中国的环境库兹涅茨曲线,判断其存在性并分析其拐点的具体位置。研究结果共分两个部分：第一,我国低碳经济发展的影响因素包括经济发展、社会发展、能源消费、技术进步和国际贸易五个方面,其中前三者对二氧化碳排放量的影响较为显著,同时能更加准确地表征这三个因素的指标分别为国内生产总值(GDP)、城镇化率和能源消费总量,它们与二氧化碳排放量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系及Granger因果关系,并且在短期内,它们的波动也会对二氧化碳排放量产生影响,其误差修正速度为39.76%。第二,我国低碳经济的发展路径为正“U”型曲线,其拐点值为GDP等于20253.06亿元,远小于我国目前的GDP,这说明我国已处于拐点的右侧,即环境质量随着经济增长而逐渐恶化的阶段。依据以上分析,本文提出了稳定经济增长,调整产业结构；控制人口增长,鼓励低碳生活；开发清洁能源,优化能源结构；加大技术投入,提高能源效率；改善出口结构,加强国际交流等相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, extreme severe weather caused by global warming has occurred frequently, which poses a serious threat to the survival of human beings and the development of society. The growing Greenhouse Effect has also aroused the widespread concern of governments and people all over the world. Reducing carbon emissions and developing low-carbon economy have become the inevitable choice of sustainable development. As a developing country, China is in the critical period of economic development, and also faces great pressure of carbon emission reduction. In this context, it is particularly important to study the influencing factors and development path of China's low-carbon economy. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the factors that affect the development of low-carbon economy in China, and selects ten indicators that comprehensively reflect these factors, according to the relevant data from 1985 to 2012. The grey correlation analysis method is used to screen out the indexes with high correlation degree with the development of low-carbon economy, and the cointegration analysis between them and carbon dioxide emissions is carried out, and the vector error correction model is established. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and its main influencing factors is analyzed from two aspects of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation. On this basis, the development path of China's low-carbon economy is empirically studied, and the main influencing factors are added to the environmental Kuznets curve model, and the environmental Kuznets curve of China is fitted. Judge its existence and analyze the specific position of its inflection point. The research results are divided into two parts: first, the influencing factors of China's low-carbon economic development include economic development, social development, energy consumption, technological progress and international trade. The first three factors have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions, and the indicators that can more accurately represent these three factors are the gross domestic product (GDP), the urbanization rate and the total energy consumption. There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and Granger causality between them and carbon dioxide emissions, and in the short term, their fluctuations will also have an effect on carbon dioxide emissions, and the error correction speed is 39.76. Second, the development path of China's low-carbon economy is a positive "U" curve with a inflection point of 2.025306 trillion yuan, which is far smaller than the current GDP of China, which indicates that China is already on the right side of the inflection point. That is, the environmental quality with economic growth and gradually deteriorating stage. Based on the above analysis, this paper proposes to stabilize economic growth, adjust industrial structure, control population growth, encourage low-carbon living, develop clean energy, optimize energy structure, increase technology investment, improve energy efficiency, improve export structure, Strengthen international exchange and other relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5

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