不同贸易方式对我国经济增长影响的差异性研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 16:39

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的不断发展，我国以一般贸易和加工贸易为主要方式的对外贸易得到了迅速发展。国内外许多学者对这两种贸易方式与经济增长之间的关系进行了相关研宄。但是，，由于这两种贸易方式存在着较大区别，因此不同学者得到了不尽相同的结论。鉴于此，本文主要研宄我国一般贸易和加工贸易在促进经济增长方面的不同贡献，为政府在未来期间制定相关贸易政策提供依据。本文首先是对相关理论的文献进行梳理，在此基础上对一般贸易、加工贸易和我国经济增长之间的关系进行了理论分析，然后分别从从发展阶段、增值率、商品结构、区域结构和主体企业几个方面来分析我国一般贸易和加工贸易的发展现状，发现这两种贸易方式在促进经济发展的传导机制、理论基础和发展现状上有较大差异。一是一般贸易在国内的生产链条较长，通过传导要素对我国相关产业的带动作用大；而加工贸易是一种典型的“两头在外”模式，在国内的生产链条较短，通过传导要素对我国相关产业的带动作用小。二是一般贸易的增值率在1.5附近波动起伏，而加工贸易的增值率从0.3开始波动上升。在此基础上，首先对建立在凯恩斯国民收入恒等式基础上的一般贸易和加工贸易与我国经济增长关系模型进行计量分析，然后对一般贸易和加工贸易通过五大传导要素在促进我国经济增长贡献上的差异性进行ADF、协整检验和回归等计量分析，实证后发现一般贸易不仅在总量上，而且通过资本积累、经济结构调整、技术溢出等传导要素促进我国经济增长的贡献都要大于加工贸易，而加工贸易在大量吸收我国劳动力就业来促进经济增长方面的贡献要大于一般贸易。最后，针对以上研宄结果提出要优先发展一般贸易、适当发展加工贸易的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, China's foreign trade, mainly in the form of general trade and processing trade, has developed rapidly. Many scholars at home and abroad have studied the relationship between these two trade modes and economic growth. However, due to the differences between the two trade modes, different scholars have reached different conclusions. In view of this, this paper mainly studies the different contributions of China's general trade and processing trade in promoting economic growth, and provides the basis for the government to formulate relevant trade policies in the future. This paper firstly combs the literature of related theories, and then analyzes the relationship between general trade, processing trade and China's economic growth, and then from the development stage, the value added rate, the commodity structure, respectively. This paper analyzes the development status of China's general trade and processing trade from several aspects of regional structure and main enterprises, and finds that there are great differences between these two trade modes in the transmission mechanism, theoretical basis and current situation of economic development. One is that the production chain of general trade in China is relatively long, and the leading role of the transmission elements to the related industries in China is great; while the processing trade is a typical "two ends in the outside" mode, and the domestic production chain is relatively short. Through the conduction factor to our country related industry the impetus function is small. Second, the value added rate of general trade fluctuates around 1.5, while the value added rate of processing trade rises from 0.3. On this basis, the relationship model between general trade and processing trade and China's economic growth based on Keynesian national income identity is analyzed. Then, through the analysis of the differences between the five transmission elements of general trade and processing trade in promoting China's economic growth contribution, the econometric analysis, such as ADF, cointegration test and regression, shows that general trade is not only in the total amount, but also through the accumulation of capital. The contribution of transmission factors such as economic structure adjustment, technology spillover and other factors to promote China's economic growth is greater than that of processing trade, and the contribution of processing trade in absorbing a large number of Chinese labor force to promote economic growth is greater than that in general trade. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to give priority to the development of general trade and proper development of processing trade.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F752

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