我国经济特区设立的经济增长效应评估——基于合成控制法的分析

发布时间：2018-07-31 16:33

【摘要】：本文基于合成控制法,以反事实分析的方式探讨了我国设立经济特区所带来的经济增长效应。结果表明,经济特区的设立可以显著促进经济增长,但这种效应具有时间上和空间上的双重不对称性。从时间上看,20世纪80年代特区设立伊始,其对经济增长的促进效应最为明显,到了90年代这一效应有所减弱,2000年后进一步下降。后设的经济特区会呈现出某种"后发劣势"。就地区而言,在东部省份设立经济特区带来的经济效益最大,中西部地区收效不明显。因此,不能过于依赖经济特区来拉动经济增长,现阶段应加快转变特区的发展方式,通过动态管理、分类指导强化约束和倒逼机制,优化人力资本、金融等资源配置,走质量效益型发展道路。
[Abstract]:Based on the synthetic control method, this paper discusses the effect of economic growth brought by the establishment of special economic zones in China by means of counterfactual analysis. The results show that the establishment of special economic zones can significantly promote economic growth, but this effect has double asymmetry in time and space. From the point of view of time, at the beginning of the establishment of the special economic zone in 1980s, its promoting effect on economic growth was the most obvious. In the 1990s, this effect was weakened, and then declined further after 2000. The latter special economic zones will present some kind of "late inferiority". As far as the region is concerned, the establishment of special economic zones in the eastern provinces will bring the greatest economic benefits, but the central and western regions will not have obvious results. Therefore, we should not rely too much on special economic zones to stimulate economic growth. At this stage, we should speed up the transformation of the development mode of the special economic zones, strengthen the constraint and inversion mechanism through dynamic management, classify and guide, and optimize the allocation of human capital, financial resources, etc. Take the road of quality and efficiency development.
【作者单位】：广州大学经济与统计学院;中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“优化人力资本配置研究”(16CJY015)资助
【分类号】：F127

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