山西省产业结构优化和调整研究
发布时间：2018-08-04 12:55
【摘要】：本文从资源优化配置的角度对三次产业结构进行优化，用灰色动态线性规划模型来预测2013~2016年最佳产值结构和劳动力结构，从预测的产值结构和劳动力结构得知，第二产业产值比重在继续增加，第三产业产值比重反而在减小，说明第二产业的发展对第三产业有挤出效应，两者并没有相互促进互动发展。第二产业就业比重仅有微小增加，第三产业已经成为吸纳第一产业剩余劳动力的主力产业。由结构偏离度得知，第一、三产业结构偏离度为负，只有第二产业结构偏离度为正，因此可以考虑优先发展能促进第二产业就业的部门或行业，使得第二产业结构能够趋于合理。 针对上述分析，本文在对第二产业内部进行优化时，选取了结构偏离度、就业弹性、劳动生产率、工资水平来对第二产业内部各行业吸纳劳动力的能力进行评价，并通过回归分析得出就业弹性对第二产业劳动力就业的影响最大，其次是结构偏离度。分别用这两个指标并且结合山西省十二五规划对各行业发展进行分析，得出如下结论： (1)计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业，专用、通用设备制造业等装备制造业和食品制造业、燃气生产与供应业，，属于山西省十二五规划重点发展的新兴产业，这些产业快速发展将会创造更多的就业岗位，对就业的影响最大。 (2)黑色金属矿采选业，煤炭开采和洗涤业，电力、热力生产和供应业，有色金属矿采选业，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业这些行业属于山西省传统主导产业，技能要求较低，不属于知识密集型产业，这些产业产值比重远高于就业比重，就业人数相对偏少，且要求的技能偏低，可以吸收农村剩余劳动力和具有不熟练劳动技能的工人。 在解决第三产业产值偏低和促进第二产业产业转型升级时，本节先对工业、建筑业、各生产性服务业的发展水平进行综合评价，得出生产性服务业内部新兴生产性服务业发展滞后。紧接着研究制造业与生产性服务业的互动关系，得出结论两者的互动关系不明显，即使是制造业对生产性服务业由单向因果关系，制造业对生产性服务业的促进作用也不明显。从短期来看，制造业带动了生产性服务业的发展，但是长期来看，生产性服务业能够带动制造业可持续发展。最后通过灰色关联分析来研究生产性服务业内部各行业与制造业各行业的灰色关联度，得出如下结论：与山西省生产性服务业灰色关联度最大的是非金属矿物制品业，塑胶和塑料制品业，烟草制品业，交通运输设备制造业，说明这些行业与山西省生产性服务业互动发展最为密切。而皮革、毛皮、羽毛及其制品和制鞋业，木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业，通信设备、计算机和电子设备制造业与山西省生产性服务业的灰色关联度最小。最后这篇论文给出了分析的结论和建议。
[Abstract]:This paper optimizes the tertiary industrial structure from the point of view of the optimal allocation of resources, uses the grey dynamic linear programming model to predict the optimal output value structure and labor force structure from 2013 to 2016, and finds out from the predicted output value structure and labor force structure. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry continues to increase, but the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry is decreasing, indicating that the development of the secondary industry has an crowding out effect on the tertiary industry, and the two do not promote the interactive development of each other. The proportion of employment in the secondary industry has only slightly increased, and the tertiary industry has become the main industry that absorbs the surplus labor force in the primary industry. We know from the degree of structural deviation that the deviation of the first and third industries is negative and that only the secondary industrial structure is positive. Therefore, we can consider giving priority to the development of sectors or industries that can promote employment in the second industry. So that the structure of the secondary industry tends to be reasonable. In view of the above analysis, this paper selects the degree of structural deviation, employment elasticity, labor productivity and wage level to evaluate the ability of each industry in the secondary industry to absorb labor force. Through regression analysis, it is concluded that employment elasticity has the greatest influence on the employment of labor force in the second industry, followed by the degree of structural deviation. Using these two indicators and combining with the 12th Five-Year Plan of Shanxi Province to analyze the development of various industries, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, special, The equipment manufacturing industry, food manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry, such as the general equipment manufacturing industry, are among the newly developed industries in Shanxi Province in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The rapid development of these industries will create more jobs. (2) Iron ore mining and separation, coal mining and washing, electric power, thermal production and supply, non-ferrous metal mining and separation, The ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industries belong to the traditional leading industries in Shanxi Province, with relatively low skill requirements and not knowledge-intensive industries. The proportion of output value of these industries is far higher than that of employment, and the number of employed people is relatively small. And the required skills are low, can absorb rural surplus labor and unskilled labor skills of workers. In order to solve the problem of the low output value of the tertiary industry and to promote the transformation and upgrading of the secondary industry, this section carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the development level of industry, construction industry and various producer services. It is concluded that the development of new producer services lags behind. After studying the interaction between manufacturing and producer services, it is concluded that the interaction between manufacturing and producer services is not obvious, even if the manufacturing industry is one-way causality to producer services, the contribution of manufacturing to producer services is not obvious. In the short term, manufacturing promotes the development of producer services, but in the long run, producer services can promote the sustainable development of manufacturing. Finally, the grey correlation degree of producer service industry and manufacturing industry is studied by grey relational analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the non-metal mineral products industry is the most closely related to producer service industry in Shanxi Province. Plastic and plastic products industry, tobacco products industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry, indicating that these industries and Shanxi producer services most closely interactive development. However, leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear, wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, brown, grass products, communications equipment, computer and electronic equipment manufacturing and Shanxi producer services have the least grey correlation. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3
本文编号：2163947
[Abstract]:This paper optimizes the tertiary industrial structure from the point of view of the optimal allocation of resources, uses the grey dynamic linear programming model to predict the optimal output value structure and labor force structure from 2013 to 2016, and finds out from the predicted output value structure and labor force structure. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry continues to increase, but the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry is decreasing, indicating that the development of the secondary industry has an crowding out effect on the tertiary industry, and the two do not promote the interactive development of each other. The proportion of employment in the secondary industry has only slightly increased, and the tertiary industry has become the main industry that absorbs the surplus labor force in the primary industry. We know from the degree of structural deviation that the deviation of the first and third industries is negative and that only the secondary industrial structure is positive. Therefore, we can consider giving priority to the development of sectors or industries that can promote employment in the second industry. So that the structure of the secondary industry tends to be reasonable. In view of the above analysis, this paper selects the degree of structural deviation, employment elasticity, labor productivity and wage level to evaluate the ability of each industry in the secondary industry to absorb labor force. Through regression analysis, it is concluded that employment elasticity has the greatest influence on the employment of labor force in the second industry, followed by the degree of structural deviation. Using these two indicators and combining with the 12th Five-Year Plan of Shanxi Province to analyze the development of various industries, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, special, The equipment manufacturing industry, food manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry, such as the general equipment manufacturing industry, are among the newly developed industries in Shanxi Province in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The rapid development of these industries will create more jobs. (2) Iron ore mining and separation, coal mining and washing, electric power, thermal production and supply, non-ferrous metal mining and separation, The ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industries belong to the traditional leading industries in Shanxi Province, with relatively low skill requirements and not knowledge-intensive industries. The proportion of output value of these industries is far higher than that of employment, and the number of employed people is relatively small. And the required skills are low, can absorb rural surplus labor and unskilled labor skills of workers. In order to solve the problem of the low output value of the tertiary industry and to promote the transformation and upgrading of the secondary industry, this section carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the development level of industry, construction industry and various producer services. It is concluded that the development of new producer services lags behind. After studying the interaction between manufacturing and producer services, it is concluded that the interaction between manufacturing and producer services is not obvious, even if the manufacturing industry is one-way causality to producer services, the contribution of manufacturing to producer services is not obvious. In the short term, manufacturing promotes the development of producer services, but in the long run, producer services can promote the sustainable development of manufacturing. Finally, the grey correlation degree of producer service industry and manufacturing industry is studied by grey relational analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the non-metal mineral products industry is the most closely related to producer service industry in Shanxi Province. Plastic and plastic products industry, tobacco products industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry, indicating that these industries and Shanxi producer services most closely interactive development. However, leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear, wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, brown, grass products, communications equipment, computer and electronic equipment manufacturing and Shanxi producer services have the least grey correlation. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3
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