中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 06:22

【摘要】：中国促进区域经济增长和协调发展是关系到经济社会长远发展的重大议题。在全世界,无论是发达国家、发展中国家,还是新兴的市场经济国家,都一直热切关注中国的经济增长和区域经济增长差距问题。特别是改革开放30年来,中国经济持续高速增长,人口红利为经济增长提供了强劲的驱动力,引起了学术界的广泛关注。当前,中国已步入由高速增长向中高速增长转变的经济新常态,区域人口红利的经济增长效应实现面临着诸多挑战。在此背景下,探讨中国如何挖掘和利用区域人口红利对经济增长产生积极效应以及缩小区域人口红利的经济增长效应差异问题,具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。因此,本文遵循观察现象——发现问题——分析问题——解决问题的研究思路,抓住中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应内在逻辑,就中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应展开研究。各部分的主要内容安排如下:首先,在绪论部分介绍本文的选题背景和研究意义、研究内容与结构安排、研究方法、主要创新点和有待研究的问题。其次,梳理国内外相关文献,对现有文献进行简要评述,并指出本文所做的进一步补充和完善。第三,论述相关理论,主要包括人口理论、人口红利理论以及经济增长理论。第四,就人口红利与经济增长的现状进行分析,包括全国人口红利和经济增长现状与省际人口红利和经济增长区域差异分析,并总结我国人口红利推动经济增长和缩小区域经济增长效应差异面临的主要挑战。第五,建立中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应理论模型,就我国区域人口红利的经济增长效应进行计量分析。第六,基于中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应理论模型,就我国区域人口红利经济增长效应差异的收敛性进行分析。最后,基于文章得出的研究结论,提出在经济新常态下,我国挖掘和利用区域人口红利推动经济增长以及缩小区域人口红利经济增长效应差异的相关政策建议。本文的研究结论可概括如下:(1)我国人口结构发生着重要转变,人口的高龄少子化使得劳动力人口供给规模下降,将进一步导致我国区域人口红利经济增长效应实现的重要因素——从业人口占总人口比重的下降。同时,我国对外贸易与城镇化发展进程存在的问题给我国区域人口红利推动经济增长与缩小区域人口红利经济增长效应差异带来严峻挑战。(2)中国人口红利的真正内涵是指人均资本存量、人均教育人力资本、人均健康人力资本和从业人口占总人口的比重在对外贸易和城镇化条件下产生的经济增长源泉。不能将我国区域人口红利的经济增长效应限定在某一个特定时期之内。也就是说,我国区域人口红利经济增长效应问题研究的重点,不应放在探究区域人口红利经济增长效应持续的时间,而应在明晰人口红利与经济增长现状的基础上,将研究重点放在探索区域人口红利经济增长积极效应的内在机制以及如何挖掘和利用区域人口红利推动经济增长和缩小区域经济增长差距本身。(3)全局空间相关性检验Moran' si指数值表明:1990-2014年,我国区域人口红利的经济增长效应存在显著正向空间相关性。局部空间相关性检验Moran' sI散点图表明:我国多数区域位于第一象限的高-高(H-H)集聚区与第二象限的低-低(L-L)集聚区。(4)以往文献通常采用人口学指标中的少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和总抚养比来作为人口红利的衡量指标,就中国人口红利的经济增长效应进行的研究,实际上存在着较大的局限性。以人均教育人力资本、人均健康人力资本和从业人口占总人口比重来重新刻画人口红利的衡量指标,能够弥补通常采用人口抚养比作为人口红利衡量指标研究人口红利的经济增长效应问题的不足。(5)本文基于中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应理论,设定地理邻近和地理距离两种空间权重矩阵,运用空间滞后模型,就中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应进行实证分析,研究发现:从业人口占总人口的比重、人均资本存量和人均教育人力资本对经济增长具有显著的正向作用,是中国实现区域人口红利经济增长效应的三大主要因素,人均健康人力资本和对外贸易对我国经济增长产生积极影响。(6) 1990-2014年,我国区域经济增长存在显著的绝对β和条件β收敛性,在将区域初始条件视为相同的假定下,区域经济增长将收敛于一个相同的稳态水平;在将区域初始条件视为相异的假定下,区域经济增长将收敛于各自的稳态水平。(7)由于我国区域经济增长的初始条件存在较大差异,因此,绝对β收敛检验存在一定的局限性。以将区域初始条件视为相异的条件β收敛,来研究我国区域人口红利经济增长效应差异的收敛性,其研究结论更加符合我国区域人口红利经济增长效应差异的客观现实,具有较强的现实指导意义。本文的创新点在于:(1)采用新的指标对人口红利进行科学、准确衡量。(2)建立中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应理论模型,利用空间计量分析技术,设定地理邻近和地理距离两种空间权重矩阵,就中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应进行全面、深刻而现实的考察。(3)考虑中国区域经济增长和协调发展的重要性,基于中国区域人口红利的经济增长效应理论,建立空间面板数据模型,就中国区域人口红利经济增长效应差异的收敛性进行了实证分析,扩展了现有文献。
[Abstract]:China's promotion of regional economic growth and coordinated development is a major issue related to long-term economic and social development. All over the world, whether developed countries, developing countries or emerging market economy countries, have been keenly concerned about China's economic growth and regional economic growth disparities. With the sustained and rapid economic growth, the demographic dividend has provided a strong driving force for economic growth, which has attracted wide attention in academia. At present, China has entered the new normal economic situation of transition from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. The realization of the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend is facing many challenges. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to make use of regional demographic dividend to produce positive effects on economic growth and to narrow the differences in economic growth effects of regional demographic dividend. The main contents of each part are as follows: Firstly, the introduction introduces the background and significance of this paper, the research contents and structure, the research methods, the main innovation points and the problems to be studied. The related literatures at home and abroad are briefly reviewed, and pointed out the further supplement and perfection of this paper. Thirdly, the related theories are discussed, including population theory, demographic dividend theory and economic growth theory. Fourthly, the present situation of demographic dividend and economic growth is analyzed, including national demographic dividend and economic growth. The current situation and regional disparity analysis of provincial demographic dividend and economic growth, and summarizes the main challenges facing China's demographic dividend to promote economic growth and narrow the disparity of regional economic growth effects. Fifthly, the paper establishes a theoretical model of economic growth effects of China's regional demographic dividend, and measures the economic growth effects of China's regional demographic dividend. Sixthly, based on the economic growth effect model of China's regional demographic dividend, this paper analyzes the convergence of the regional demographic dividend economic growth effect differences in China. Finally, based on the research conclusions drawn in this paper, it proposes that under the new normal economic situation, China should excavate and utilize the regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and narrow the region. The conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) China's demographic structure has undergone an important transformation. The aging and fewer children of the population make the scale of labor supply decline, which will further lead to the realization of the economic growth effect of regional demographic dividend - employees. At the same time, the problems in the process of China's foreign trade and urbanization have posed a serious challenge to China's regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and narrow the regional demographic dividend economic growth effect differences. (2) The real connotation of China's demographic dividend is the per capita capital stock, per capita education human capital, and per capita human capital. The source of economic growth under the condition of foreign trade and urbanization can not limit the economic growth effect of regional population dividend in a certain period of time. On the basis of clarifying the current situation of demographic dividend and economic growth, the study should focus on exploring the internal mechanism of the positive effects of regional demographic dividend on economic growth and how to excavate and utilize regional demographic dividend to promote economic growth and narrow the regional economic growth gap. (3) The global spatial correlation test Moran'si index shows that there is a significant positive spatial correlation between the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend from 1990 to 2014. (4) Previous studies on the economic growth effect of China's demographic dividend, which usually used the child dependency ratio, the old-age dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio as the indicators of demographic dividend, have great limitations. The ratio of population to total population can redefine the measure index of population dividend, which can make up for the deficiency of using population dependency ratio as the measure index of population dividend to study the economic growth effect of population dividend. (5) Based on the economic growth effect theory of China's regional population dividend, this paper designs two kinds of indicators: geographical proximity and geographical distance. The spatial weight matrix and the spatial lag model are used to analyze the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. The results show that the proportion of the working population to the total population, the per capita capital stock and the per capita educational human capital have a significant positive effect on economic growth, which is the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. (6) From 1990 to 2014, China's regional economic growth has a significant convergence of absolute beta and conditional beta. Under the assumption that the initial regional conditions are the same, regional economic growth will converge to the same steady-state level. Under the assumption that regional initial conditions are considered to be different, regional economic growth will converge to their respective steady-state levels. (7) Because the initial conditions of regional economic growth in China are quite different, there are certain limitations in the absolute beta convergence test. The innovation of this paper lies in: (1) adopting new indicators to scientifically and accurately measure the population dividend. (2) establishing the economic growth of China's regional population dividend. Based on the long-term effect theory model and spatial econometric analysis technique, this paper sets up two spatial weighting matrices of geographic proximity and geographic distance, and makes a comprehensive, profound and realistic study on the economic growth effect of China's regional demographic dividend. (3) Considering the importance of China's regional economic growth and coordinated development, and basing on China's regional demographic dividend economy. Based on the growth effect theory, this paper establishes a spatial panel data model and makes an empirical analysis on the convergence of the economic growth effects of China's regional demographic dividend, which extends the existing literature.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.1

【参考文献】