历史视角下贸易与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-07 14:53

【摘要】：开放经济条件下,贸易和经济增长的关系是经济学理论和现实中的一个永恒的议题。近代在世界主要大国的经济增长过程中,特别是改革开放以来中国经济的高速增长中,对外贸易起了重要的作用。但是近几年来,特别是成为贸易大国以来,中国的外部贸易环境发生了很大的变化,同时中国经济的潜在增长路径也在下移。外贸能否继续成为经济增长的重要因素引起各方争议。在这种背景下,有必要从理论和实践的角度进一步阐释贸易和经济增长的关系,为中国未来的经济增长路径提供理论和政策支持。另一方面,长期以来,有关贸易与经济增长的关系无论在理论研究还是实证分析方面一直存在着不同的解释和观点。本研究试图从历史的视角,通过大量的数据和实证分析,验证中国和世界主要经济大国的发展过程中贸易与经济增长的关系。首先通过文献分析,对于各方观点中贸易与经济增长的互动关系以及主要影响因素进行分类,然后结合主流贸易理论对两者的作用机制进行梳理,并就典型情形建立分析模型,重点通过福利得失,考察不同贸易行为对于经贸互动机制的影响,在实证阶段由于各国的经贸现状与其长期发展过程有关,仅分析近几十年的数据难于从更深层面揭示两者的互动机制,因此应选择采用近代长周期历史数据进行实证。中国近代经贸关系的分析选择清代中期、清代后期、民国时期、新中国改革开放前、后五个阶段逐次展开。其中,清代中期贸易与经济增长的关系不大,贸易只在一定时期起到经济“稳定剂"的作用；清代后期,尽管贸易大幅增长,但从静态效应而言对经济增长作用为负；民国时期,中国贸易与经济增长的关系已经较为密切,进出口之间的相关度也很高,但贸易对于经济增长作用为负；新中国改革开放前贸易依托传统农产品出口起步,为中国带来静态利益的同时,对于中国经济增长的动态效益逐步显现：新中国改革开放后,货物贸易和服务贸易对经济增长的影响不同,前者为正、后者为负,货物净出口依然是推动经济增长的主要途径,但从提高人均收入的角度分析两者作用相反,目前中国已经进入进口、出口和经济增长三者良性互动阶段。此外,通过对比近代四个主要工业化经贸大国——英国、美国、德国和日本近几个世纪的发展过程可总结如下规律：在工业起步阶段,工业成为推动贸易快速增长的动力,同时贸易与经济增长能够形成良性互动；但在各国贸易壁垒林立,贸易战甚至军事冲突的影响下,工业上的优势难于转化为贸易优势,而经济增长与贸易的互动关系也会被打破,但期间进口对于经济增长的积极作用不容忽视；如果政府对于经济干预过多、国内存在大量垄断集团控制国民经济的情况下,不论在和平时期还是战争时期,尽管工业能够继续成为推动经济增长的动力,但贸易与经济增长的良性互动难于达成。另外,殖民地经济可以凭借贸易实现外生增长的同时也为内生增长提供基础,但容易遭致其他国家的报复,对殖民地的保护成本以及殖民地的独立运动加剧了殖民地经济解体。总体而言,未受其他不利因素的影响下,贸易与经济增长是相互推动的。尽管当前中国经贸关系保持了良性互动,而且通过制造业实现了资本和技术的快速积累,但贸易摩擦、内需不足、劳动力成本和物流成本对较高将成为影响中国经贸关系可持续高速互动增长的阻力,这些都可以借鉴英国、美国、德国和日本的历史经验和教训进行有针对性的改善。第一章主要通过文献分析,整理归纳各方观点,确定贸易与经济增长的关系类型,分析影响两者关系的主要影响因素：第二章通过理论分析、机制分析研究贸易与经济增长的理论关系,进而通过构建模型的方式,对于不同因素变化对于两者互动关系的影响进行分析；第三章以近300年间中国的经贸关系发展为线索,按照五个阶段的实证分析,判断贸易对于近代中国经济增长的影响；为了确认中国近代的经贸关系是特例还是具有共性,第四章采用与第三章近似的分析方式,逐个对于英国、美国、德国、日本近代的经贸关系进行实证分析；第五章结合第二章的理论分析结果,通过对中国、英国、美国、德国和日本五国近代经贸关系的纵向及横向对比分析,总结全文的基本观点,并在此基础上形成对世界及中国的启示。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, the relationship between trade and economic growth is an eternal topic in economic theory and reality. Foreign trade played an important role in the process of economic growth of major countries in the world in modern times, especially in the high-speed economic growth of China since the reform and opening up. But in recent years, it has become a major trading country in particular. Since then, great changes have taken place in China's external trade environment, and the potential growth path of China's economy has also been declining. Whether foreign trade can continue to be an important factor in economic growth has aroused controversy. Under this background, it is necessary to further explain the relationship between trade and economic growth from the theoretical and practical perspectives, so as to serve China's future. On the other hand, there have been different explanations and viewpoints on the relationship between trade and economic growth both theoretically and empirically for a long time. The relationship between trade and economic growth in the development process of economic powers. First of all, through literature analysis, this paper classifies the interaction between trade and economic growth and the main influencing factors, and then combs the mechanism of the two by combining the mainstream trade theory, and establishes an analysis model for typical cases, focusing on welfare. In the empirical stage, it is difficult to reveal the interaction mechanism of the two countries from a deeper level only by analyzing the data of recent decades, so we should choose the modern long-term historical data for empirical study. In the mid-Qing Dynasty, the late Qing Dynasty, the Republic of China, before the reform and opening up of New China, the latter five stages were launched one after another. During the period of the Republic of China, the relationship between China's trade and economic growth was already close, and the correlation between import and export was also high, but trade played a negative role in economic growth; before the reform and opening up, trade in New China relied on the export of traditional agricultural products to start, bringing static benefits to China, and at the same time, it also had a dynamic impact on China's economic growth. After the reform and opening up of New China, the effects of trade in goods and services on economic growth are different. The former is positive, the latter is negative. Net exports of goods are still the main way to promote economic growth. However, from the perspective of increasing per capita income, the two effects are opposite. At present, China has entered import, exports and economic growth. In addition, by comparing the development process of the four major industrialized economic and trade powers in recent centuries, the following laws can be summed up: in the initial stage of industry, industry has become the driving force to promote the rapid growth of trade, while trade and economic growth can form a benign interaction; However, under the influence of various countries'trade barriers, trade wars and even military conflicts, it is difficult for industrial advantages to be transformed into trade advantages, and the interactive relationship between economic growth and trade will be broken, but the positive role of imports in economic growth can not be ignored; if the government intervenes too much in the economy, there is a large number of domestic monopoly concentration. Under the regiment's control of the national economy, although industry can continue to be a driving force for economic growth in both peacetime and wartime, the benign interaction between trade and economic growth is difficult to achieve. Overall, trade and economic growth are mutually reinforcing without other adverse factors. Although China's economic and trade relations have maintained a positive interaction, capital and technology have been achieved through manufacturing. Rapid accumulation, but trade frictions, insufficient domestic demand, high labor costs and logistics costs will become obstacles to the sustainable and high-speed interactive growth of China's economic and trade relations. All these can be used for reference in the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Japan's historical experience and lessons for targeted improvement. The second chapter analyzes the theoretical relationship between trade and economic growth through theoretical analysis and mechanism analysis, and then analyzes the impact of different factors on the interaction between the two by building a model. Chapter three takes the development of China's economic and trade relations in the past 300 years as a clue, and judges the impact of trade on China's economic growth according to five stages of empirical analysis; in order to confirm whether China's economic and trade relations in modern times are exceptional or common, Chapter four adopts the similar analysis method with Chapter Three, and analyzes Britain, the United States, Germany and Japan one by one. The fifth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the modern economic and trade relations in Japan. Based on the theoretical analysis of the second chapter, it summarizes the basic viewpoints of the full text through the vertical and horizontal comparative analysis of the modern economic and trade relations among China, Britain, the United States, Germany and Japan, and on this basis forms the enlightenment to the world and China.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;F124

【参考文献】