老龄化背景下延迟退休对我国经济增长的影响
发布时间：2018-09-07 17:07
【摘要】：人口老龄化已成为世界各国面临的重要问题,目前我国的人口老龄化呈现出发展速度快、老龄人口受教育水平低、地区差异大、“未富先老”等特点,预期寿命的延长使延迟退休成为现实的解决方案。本文拟定3种退休年龄改革方案,运用统计方法和数学模型从经济增长平衡路径和增长速度两个角度比较各方案的效果。分析得出：(1)未来中国65岁以上老龄人口的绝对数量在2045年开始出现减少的势头,但其占总人口的比例不降反升；(2)其他条件不变的情况下,劳动老龄化率和养老系数对经济增长的平衡路径有显著影响,粗略估计,我国的养老系数在标准以上,实行有效降低劳动老龄化率的退休年龄改革政策效果最优；(3)延迟退休政策能够增加劳动力供给,但中短期内也会降低劳动力的素质,所以老龄化对我国经济增长率的影响是复杂的；未来我国的经济增长可以分为4个阶段：经济增长率先减(2015-2027)、后增(2028-2035),快减(2036-2040)、趋于平稳(2041-2055)。最后,依据以上研究结果,对我国应对人口老龄化和制定延迟退休政策提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population has become an important problem facing all countries in the world. At present, the aging population in our country has the characteristics of rapid development, low educational level of the aged population, large regional differences, "getting old before getting rich" and so on. Longer life expectancy makes delayed retirement a realistic solution. In this paper, three kinds of retirement age reform schemes are drawn up, and the effects of these schemes are compared from the point of view of economic growth equilibrium path and growth rate by using statistical method and mathematical model. The results show that: (1) in the future, the absolute number of the aged population over 65 years old in China will begin to decrease in 2045, but its proportion in the total population will increase instead of decreasing; (2) under other conditions, Labor aging rate and pension coefficient have significant influence on the equilibrium path of economic growth. Roughly, the pension coefficient of our country is above the standard, and the policy of retirement age reform, which can effectively reduce the rate of labor aging, has the best effect. (3) the delayed retirement policy can increase the supply of labor force, but it will also reduce the quality of labor force in the short and medium term, so the influence of aging on the economic growth rate of our country is complicated; In the future, China's economic growth can be divided into four stages: economic growth rate decreases first (2015-2027), then increases (2028-2035), rapidly decreases (2036-2040), and tends to steady (2041-2055). Finally, based on the above research results, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with the aging of the population and make the delayed retirement policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F249.21
本文编号：2228882
[Abstract]:The aging of the population has become an important problem facing all countries in the world. At present, the aging population in our country has the characteristics of rapid development, low educational level of the aged population, large regional differences, "getting old before getting rich" and so on. Longer life expectancy makes delayed retirement a realistic solution. In this paper, three kinds of retirement age reform schemes are drawn up, and the effects of these schemes are compared from the point of view of economic growth equilibrium path and growth rate by using statistical method and mathematical model. The results show that: (1) in the future, the absolute number of the aged population over 65 years old in China will begin to decrease in 2045, but its proportion in the total population will increase instead of decreasing; (2) under other conditions, Labor aging rate and pension coefficient have significant influence on the equilibrium path of economic growth. Roughly, the pension coefficient of our country is above the standard, and the policy of retirement age reform, which can effectively reduce the rate of labor aging, has the best effect. (3) the delayed retirement policy can increase the supply of labor force, but it will also reduce the quality of labor force in the short and medium term, so the influence of aging on the economic growth rate of our country is complicated; In the future, China's economic growth can be divided into four stages: economic growth rate decreases first (2015-2027), then increases (2028-2035), rapidly decreases (2036-2040), and tends to steady (2041-2055). Finally, based on the above research results, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with the aging of the population and make the delayed retirement policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F249.21
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