延迟退休对我国劳动力供给和经济增长的影响估算

发布时间：2018-10-29 22:12

【摘要】：近年来,我国人口结构老龄化程度不断加深,工作年龄人口出现拐点性变化,"人口红利"加速衰减,这在一定程度上加剧了我国潜在经济增速的下滑。有关两种渐进式延迟退休年龄方案对劳动力供给和经济增长的潜在影响的研究表明,现行定义下的中老年群体还有很大的供给潜力,可以通过实施延迟退休年龄政策提高劳动参与率而释放规模可观的"夕阳红利"。实施渐进式延迟退休年龄政策能够显著提高劳动力供给和经济增长,特别是政策实施的前5期,每期可带来城市劳动力供给增加200万~300万人,拉动GDP增长超过0.5个百分点。这能够有效缓解工作年龄人口减少对我国劳动力供给和经济增长带来的不利影响,为实现从注重数量的一次人口红利向注重质量的二次人口红利转换提供宝贵的窗口期。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the aging degree of population structure in China has been deepened, the working age population has appeared inflection point change, and the "demographic dividend" has accelerated to decline, which to a certain extent has aggravated the decline of the potential economic growth rate of our country. Studies of the potential impact of two progressive deferred retirement age schemes on labour supply and economic growth suggest that the current definition of older age groups has significant supply potential. Raising the labour force participation rate through the implementation of the late retirement age policy can unleash a sizable sunset benefit. The implementation of progressive delayed retirement age policy can significantly improve labor supply and economic growth, especially in the first five periods of policy implementation, which can bring about an increase in urban labor supply of 2 million ~ 3 million people and a GDP growth of more than 0.5 percentage points. This can effectively alleviate the negative impact of the reduction of working-age population on the supply of labor force and economic growth in China, and provide a valuable window for the transition from a primary population dividend to a quality-oriented secondary population dividend.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院;中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“延迟退休对我国劳动力市场的影响及其作用机制研究”(16CJL049)
【分类号】：F124.1;F249.2

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