中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析

发布时间：2019-01-19 17:04

【摘要】：研究目标:探索中等收入经济体转型概率一般特征及转型动力因素。研究方法:基于K-M估计量估计中等收入阶段停留时间和转型概率,采用生存模型探讨中等收入转型的动力因素。研究发现:中等收入经济体在中等收入阶段的平均停留时间为38年,转型概率呈双峰型分布,即前25年逐年上升,其间的25~40年间下降,40年后提高。人力资本、技术进步和出口结构对中等收入转型概率有显著影响,尤其是中等人力资本。一个经济体从中低收入向中高收入阶段转变过程中,技术进步的重要性逐渐提高,人力资本和出口结构的重要性逐渐减弱。此外,1950~1985年间中等收入转型主要依赖人力资本和技术进步,1985~2015年间中等收入转型主要依赖技术进步和出口结构的专业化。研究创新:首次基于转型概率视角概括中等收入转型一般规律,使用生存分析研究不同时期和不同阶段中等收入转型的动力因素,并区分各因素的相对重要性。研究价值:拓展中等收入转型研究视角,延伸生存分析方法适用范围,研究结论对丰富中等收入阶段的经济学分析具有重要的学术价值和对中等收入国家制定转型战略具有重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the general characteristics of the transition probability and the dynamic factors of the transition in middle-income economies. Methods: based on K-M estimator to estimate the residence time and transition probability of the middle income stage, the survival model was used to study the dynamic factors of the middle income transition. It is found that the average residence time of middle-income economies is 38 years, and the transition probability is a bimodal distribution, that is, the first 25 years increase year by year, during 2540 years it decreases, and then increases 40 years later. Human capital, technological progress and export structure have significant influence on the probability of middle income transition, especially on middle human capital. During the transition of an economy from middle and middle income to high income, the importance of technological progress has gradually increased, and the importance of human capital and export structure has gradually weakened. In addition, the middle income transition mainly depended on human capital and technological progress during the period of 1950-1985, and on technological progress and specialization of export structure from 1985 to 2015. Research innovation: for the first time, based on the perspective of transition probability, we generalize the general law of middle income transition, use survival analysis to study the dynamic factors of middle income transition in different periods and different stages, and distinguish the relative importance of each factor. Research value: expand the perspective of middle-income transition research, extend the scope of survival analysis methods, The conclusions are of great academic value to enrich the economic analysis of the middle income stage and important practical significance for the middle income countries to formulate the transition strategy.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济发展研究中心;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“后金融危机时期我国经济发展方式研究”(10JZD0016) 武汉大学自主科研项目“中等收入阶段经济发展问题研究”的资助
【分类号】：F124.7;F224

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