省域综合经济实力的评价与预测研究

发布时间：2019-02-19 16:45

【摘要】：综合经济实力是反映一个国家或特定的范围地区物质综合拥有程度的经济学概念.省域综合经济实力即是以一个省为地域范围的能反映经济发展的因素的综合水平.研究我国各省的综合经济实力并对它们作出评价,对于国家经济政策的制定有着重要的意义.为此,本文从基本的统计学理论出发,研究了多指标综合评价方法、时间序列预测方法,从而建立了对省域综合经济实力进行评价-预测-评价的一整套的体系方法.主要研究内容如下：(1)省域综合经济实力.从经济实力出发,探讨了综合经济实力的内涵.在此基础上,给出了省域综合经济实力的拓展的定义,建立了能够量化反映省域综合经济实力的指标体系,即从这些指标中能提取出代表省域综合经济实力定量的“数值”(2)因子分析评价方法.求出了能综合反映原始指标的少数几个公共因子,并对公共因子所代表的实际意义进行了解释.利用公共因子与变量间的函数关系,得到了公共因子在样品点上的得分,将这些得分综合成一个“综合得分”,即为反映综合经济实力的可以量化、评价的指标.(3)时间序列预测方法.介绍了传统的时间序列建模方法；提出了一种对于短期年度时间序列数据建模的“组合加法模型”方法.利用此两种方法对样品综合得分建立时间序列模型,并预测.基于误差分析从两种方法建立的模型中筛选出预测效果最优的模型,将此最优模型的预测值作为进一步的研究值.(4)数值计算和结果分析.根据已建立指标体系、评价方法和预测方法,对我国大陆31个省区近12年的数据进行了数值计算.以2012年的数据为例对综合经济实力的评价过程进行了阐述；以计算出的2001年至2010年的综合得分值进行了时间序列建模和预测,并用2011年和2012年的值检验了预测的效果；最后给出了综合得分3年未知值的预测结果,并基于这些预测结果对样品进行了综合评价.
[Abstract]:Comprehensive economic strength is an economic concept that reflects the degree of comprehensive possession of material in a country or a specific area. The comprehensive economic strength of a province is a comprehensive level which can reflect the factors of economic development. It is of great significance for the formulation of national economic policy to study the comprehensive economic strength of our provinces and evaluate them. Therefore, based on the basic statistical theory, this paper studies the methods of multi-index comprehensive evaluation and time series prediction, and establishes a set of system methods for evaluating, predicting and evaluating the comprehensive economic strength of the province. The main research contents are as follows: (1) the comprehensive economic strength of the province. From the point of view of economic strength, the connotation of comprehensive economic strength is discussed. On this basis, the definition of the expansion of provincial comprehensive economic strength is given, and the index system which can quantitatively reflect the provincial comprehensive economic strength is established. That is to say, the "numerical value" (2) factor analysis and evaluation method can be extracted from these indexes to represent the quantitative analysis of provincial comprehensive economic strength. A few common factors which can comprehensively reflect the original index are obtained and the practical meaning represented by the common factors is explained. By using the functional relationship between common factors and variables, the scores of common factors on sample points are obtained, and these scores are synthesized into a "comprehensive score", that is, it can be quantified to reflect the comprehensive economic strength. (3) time series prediction method. This paper introduces the traditional modeling method of time series, and presents a method of "combinatorial addition model" for modeling short-term annual time series data. The two methods are used to establish the time series model and predict the comprehensive score of the sample. Based on the error analysis, the optimal prediction model is selected from the two models, and the prediction value of the optimal model is taken as the further study value. (4) numerical calculation and result analysis. According to the established index system, evaluation method and prediction method, the data of 31 provinces and regions in mainland of China in recent 12 years have been numerically calculated. Taking the data of 2012 as an example, the evaluation process of comprehensive economic strength is expounded, and the time series modeling and prediction of the calculated comprehensive score values from 2001 to 2010 are carried out, and the effect of the prediction is tested with the values of 2011 and 2012. Finally, the prediction results of 3 years unknown value of comprehensive score are given, and the samples are evaluated synthetically based on these prediction results.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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