吉林省经济发展水平差异分析

发布时间：2019-04-19 04:36

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国综合国力不断提升,经济、社会、民生等有了很大改善,2015年国内生产总值居世界第二位。但在我国经济快速发展的同时,贫富差距扩大、社会结构失衡、环境污染严重等多方面问题日益突出,成为国家重点关注的问题。当前,我国经济步入“新常态”,全球贸易陷入低迷。在此形势下,对经济发展水平差异问题进行研究具有现实意义。东北地区是我国重要的重工业基地,在全国占据重要的战略地位,长期以来受到国家重点关注。我国实行“东北老工业基地”振兴以来,东北地区经济得到大幅提升,2015年东北三省经济总量达到5.8万亿。另外,吉林省在2015年的人均GDP为51851.55元,高于全国平均水平。但是,2015年作为“十二五规划”的收官之年,受到经济转型影响,东北三省经济总量整体下滑,黑龙江、辽宁GDP增速排名倒数三位,吉林省GDP增速为3.41%,经济形势不容乐观。吉林省作为东北地区重要的省份之一,其发展状况关乎整个地区的发展。但在国内外经济形势的影响下,东北地区经济发展形势严峻,吉林省经济发展也面临严重挑战,诸如就业形势严峻、城乡居民收入增加动力不足、产业结构单一、新兴产业发展缓慢、企业创新能力不足、人才流失严重等问题,导致在新的经济发展环境下,难以及时调整产业结构,破除体制机制障碍,引导资源跨区域流动,形成地区新的发展动力。因此,如何促使地区形成合力,促进地区经济整体发展,是本文重点关注的内容。本文在现有的经济发展水平研究的基础上,构建相应的经济发展评价指标体系。并在此基础上,对吉林省经济发展水平和地区差异进行了时间和空间上的综合分析。第一,利用Theil指数法对吉林省经济发展的差异进行了测度,并利用Theil指数分解法,对重要时间段吉林省的经济发展差异进行了分析。在此研究的基础上,对2015-2020年吉林省的经济发展水平进行了预测。第二,构建经济发展水平的指标评价体系,运用主成分分析法,计算综合得分,将此得分作为评价经济发展水平的依据。第三,利用综合得分计算马尔科夫概率转移矩阵,并对经济发展水平类型的空间分布格局和类型转移情况进行分析。第四,根据相关分析结论,对促进吉林省经济发展、推动产业结构优化、缩小地区差异提出政策建议。为落实新一轮东北振兴战略,吉林省应加快传统产业转型升级,调整经济结构比例,加大对外开放程度,加强对高收入城市的培育力度,推进城镇化建设,缩小县域经济差异,促进东中西地带协调发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's comprehensive national strength has been continuously improved, the economy, society and people's livelihood have been greatly improved, and the GDP ranks second in the world in 2015. However, with the rapid economic development in China, the gap between the rich and the poor, the imbalance of the social structure and the serious pollution of the environment are becoming more and more prominent, which has become a key concern of the state. At present, our country economy enters "the new normal", the global trade falls into the doldrums. Under this situation, it is of practical significance to study the difference of economic development level. Northeast China is an important heavy industrial base, occupies an important strategic position in the country, and has long been the focus of national attention. Since the implementation of "Northeast Old Industrial Base" in China, the economy of Northeast China has been greatly improved. In 2015, the total economic volume of the three provinces in Northeast China reached five trillion seven hundred and ninety nine billion nine hundred and ninety nine million nine hundred and ninety nine thousand nine hundred and ninety nine. In addition, Jilin Province's per capita GDP in 2015 was 51851.55 yuan, higher than the national average. However, 2015, as the closing year of the 12th five-year Plan, was affected by economic transformation. The total economic output of the three northeast provinces declined as a whole, Heilongjiang and Liaoning ranked the bottom three in GDP growth rate, and Jilin Province GDP growth rate was 3.41%. The economic situation is not optimistic. Jilin Province as one of the most important provinces in Northeast China, its development status is related to the development of the whole region. However, under the influence of the domestic and foreign economic situation, the economic development situation in Northeast China is severe, and the economic development in Jilin Province is also facing serious challenges, such as the severe employment situation, insufficient impetus to increase the income of urban and rural residents, and a single industrial structure. The slow development of emerging industries, the lack of innovative capacity of enterprises, and the serious brain drain have led to difficulties in adjusting the industrial structure in time, breaking down barriers to system and mechanism, and guiding the cross-regional flow of resources under the new economic development environment. To form a new impetus for development in the region. Therefore, how to promote the formation of regional synergy and promote the overall development of regional economy, is the focus of this paper. On the basis of the existing research on economic development level, this paper constructs the corresponding evaluation index system of economic development. On this basis, the economic development level and regional differences of Jilin Province are comprehensively analyzed in time and space. Firstly, the difference of economic development in Jilin Province is measured by using Theil index method, and the difference of economic development in Jilin Province in important period is analyzed by using Theil index decomposition method. On the basis of this study, the economic development level of Jilin Province from 2015 to 2020 is predicted. Secondly, the index evaluation system of economic development level is constructed, and the comprehensive score is calculated by using principal component analysis method, which is regarded as the basis for evaluating the economic development level. Thirdly, the Markov probability transfer matrix is calculated by the comprehensive score, and the spatial distribution pattern and the type transfer of the economic development level type are analyzed. Fourth, according to the relevant analysis conclusions, the policy suggestions are put forward to promote the economic development of Jilin Province, promote the optimization of industrial structure, and narrow the regional differences. In order to implement a new round of northeast revitalization strategy, Jilin Province should speed up the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, adjust the proportion of economic structure, increase the degree of opening up to the outside world, strengthen the cultivation of high-income cities, promote the construction of urbanization, and narrow the differences in county economy. To promote the coordinated development of the eastern and western regions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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