我国省域金融生态与经济增长的系统演化机制研究

发布时间：2019-04-19 06:38

【摘要】：进入“十二五”以来,我国经济增速出现了持续下滑,2015年6.9%的GDP增长率更是降至1991年以来的最低水平。在此背景下,“转方式、调结构”的大幕拉开,金融深化改革的步伐也随之加快。从这几年的发展经验看,深化金融体制改革,完善金融生态体系,持续提升金融主体活力,不断优化金融环境水平,从整体上有效促进供给和需求的协同共进。而通过近几年实践经验的有效积累,对金融生态与经济增长关系的讨论再次兴起,对此的研究得以逐步深入,特别是结合我国金融体系的发展实际,并考虑到区域金融市场的发育差异,金融生态体系的构建与完善从宏观金融的风险控制、基础设施改善、适应新兴业态以及强化金融发展能力等诸多方面不断得以深化与拓展。在攻坚克难的进程中,相关理论研究正处于极为重要的探索期。在此背景下,本文就金融生态与经济增长关系的交互影响机制及其影响力的传导机制做出创新型讨论。文章首先在遵循科学性、层次性、可比性、数据可得性原则的基础上,从金融主体发展深度、社会保障程度、法治环境、信用环境、政府公共服务、金融部门独立性六个角度出发构建金融生态评价指标体系。其次,运用系统动力学原理,构建了金融生态与经济增长关系的系统动力学仿真模型,在此基础上,实证考察了我国30个省区2001-2014年经济增长与金融生态交互作用的演化特征,随后对2015-2025年全国30个省区的金融生态水平进行了预测,并对全国四大区域的金融生态的发展水平进行了横纵双向对比分析。结果显示,考察期内各省区金融生态水平保持持续上升之趋势,东部地区金融生态的绝对值最高且增长速度最快,西部地区反之,中部地区和东北地区介于两者之间。此外,文章还以构建的系统动力学模型,引入政策冲击,模拟了财政收入、居民消费支出、教育事业费支出、财政缺口四个主要变量对金融生态水平的不同影响程度,并进一步探讨了区域之间的差异。结果表明,财政收入对金融生态的影响程度最强,居民消费支出、教育事业费支出、财政缺口三个因素在不同区域之间的影响程度差异明显,在经济发达地区,居民消费支出和教育事业费支出的影响程度基本相同,而在经济欠发达地区,教育事业费支出的影响程度明显大于居民消费支出。同时,在经济欠发达地区,财政缺口对金融生态发展的抑制程度要高于经济发达地区。最后,根据政策模拟的结果,文章依据影响金融生态水平的主要因素,探讨了优化金融生态的路径,提出改善金融生态的建议。
[Abstract]:Since entering the 12th five-year Plan, China's economic growth rate has continued to decline, and the GDP growth rate of 6.9% in 2015 has dropped to its lowest level since 1991. In this context, the "turn the way, adjust the structure" curtain opened, the pace of financial deepening reform also accelerated. From the development experience of the past few years, we should deepen the reform of the financial system, perfect the financial ecosystem, continuously enhance the vitality of the financial main body, continuously optimize the level of the financial environment, and effectively promote the co-development of supply and demand on the whole. And through the effective accumulation of practical experience in recent years, the discussion on the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth has re-sprung up, and the research on this issue has been gradually deepened, especially in the light of the actual development of the financial system in China. Taking into account the differences in the development of regional financial markets, the construction and perfection of the financial ecosystem has been deepened and expanded from the aspects of macro-financial risk control, infrastructure improvement, adaptation to emerging forms of business and strengthening the ability of financial development. In the process of overcoming the difficulties, the relevant theoretical research is at an extremely important stage of exploration. In this context, the interaction mechanism between financial ecology and economic growth and the transmission mechanism of its influence are discussed in this paper. On the basis of following the principles of science, hierarchy, comparability and availability of data, the article begins with the development depth of financial subject, the degree of social security, the environment of rule of law, the environment of credit, the public service of government, and so on. The independence of the financial sector sets out from six angles to construct the index system of financial ecological evaluation. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics simulation model of the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth is constructed. This paper investigates the evolution characteristics of the interaction between economic growth and financial ecology in 30 provinces and regions of China from 2001 to 2014, and then forecasts the financial ecological level of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2015 to 2025. And the horizontal and vertical two-way comparative analysis of the development level of financial ecology in the four major regions of the country. The results show that the financial ecological level of each province keeps rising trend during the study period, the absolute value of financial ecology in the eastern region is the highest and the speed of growth is the fastest, on the contrary in the western region, the central region and the northeast region are between the two. In addition, based on the system dynamics model, this paper introduces the policy impact, and simulates the different influences of four main variables, namely, fiscal revenue, resident consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap, on the financial ecological level. The differences between regions are also discussed. The results show that the influence of fiscal revenue on financial ecology is the strongest. The influence degree of residents' consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap in different regions is obvious, in economically developed areas, there is a significant difference in the degree of influence of the three factors, namely, consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap among different regions. The influence degree of resident consumption expenditure and education business expenditure is basically the same, but in the underdeveloped area, the influence degree of education business expenditure is obviously greater than that of resident consumption expenditure. At the same time, in the underdeveloped areas, the degree of inhibition of financial ecological development by the fiscal gap is higher than that of the developed areas. Finally, according to the results of policy simulation, according to the main factors affecting the level of financial ecology, this paper probes into the path of optimizing financial ecology, and puts forward some suggestions for improving financial ecology.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.7;F124.1

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