中国居民预防性储蓄研究

发布时间：2019-06-12 03:53

【摘要】：长期以来,中国居民储蓄持续超常增长,如何破解中国式高储蓄率困境成为各界广泛关注的问题。由于不确定性是转型期间的常态,所以在研究中国居民储蓄的文献中预防性储蓄理论备受关注。虽然大多数文献都已证实居民存在预防性储蓄行为,但是对于城乡居民预防性储蓄动机孰强孰弱、预防性储蓄是否是导致城乡居民财富积累的主要原因、影响居民预防性储蓄的主要因素是什么等问题,我们还并不完全明了。因此,在已有文献的基础上,本文以《中国居民预防性储蓄研究》为题,重点研究了上述三个问题。各章节的具体内容如下：第1章为绪论部分,主要介绍了文章的研究背景与意义、文章的研究思路与框架、以及文章的创新之处。第2章为文献综述部分,对预防性储蓄理论的形成和发展做了一个回顾。重点从预防性储蓄动机存在条件、预防性储蓄动机的检验、预防性储蓄对居民储蓄的解释力和不确定性因素的分解等方面分别对国内外文献进行了归纳和梳理,并指出在研究中国居民预防性储蓄时需要进一步深化的研究方向,进而引出本文的主要研究任务。第3章对预防性储蓄理论做了一个简要介绍。首先,对不确定性概念进行了阐述,并界定了不确定性一词在本文中的基本内涵。然后,对不确定性条件下消费者的消费决策行为作了简单介绍,并将期望效用最大化理论作为研究不确定性条件下消费者决策行为的理论基础。在此基础上,通过数学推理和几何图形来说明了不确定性对于消费者储蓄决策的影响。最后,分析了转型期间我国城乡居民面临的不确定性现状,指出预防性储蓄理论在中国具有潜在的适用性。第4章是对城乡居民预防性储蓄动机的检验。与大多数文献基于相对谨慎系数的分析不同,本文认为绝对谨慎系数才是检验消费者预防性储蓄动机强度的指标,尤其是在比较不同消费者之间预防性储蓄动机强弱时更是如此。因此,本文主要是在CARA型效用函数假定下基于2000-2010年省级面板数据检验了中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄动机,并对比了城乡居民预防性储蓄动机的强弱。结果发现,城乡居民均存在显著的预防性储蓄动机,并且农村居民的预防性储蓄动机更强,大约是城市居民的1.5倍。需要明确的是,虽然本章经验结果认为中国城乡居民存在着预防性储蓄动机,但是这并不意味着预防性储蓄就是导致中国城乡居民高储蓄的主要原因。而且,与中国城乡居民是否存在预防性储蓄动机相比,我们更加关心中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄行为引起了多少预防性财富积累。第5章则在统一的理论框架和相同时期的样本数据下进一步研究了预防性储蓄到底在多大程度上解释了中国城乡居民的财富积累。根据消费者的跨期消费决策模型求解出消费者在不确定性条件下的预防性财富积累函数,然后结合现实情况和经济理论对财富积累函数中的各项参数进行赋值,进而得到城乡居民人均预防性财富的估计值和预防性财富在城乡居民总财富中的比重。根据本章的估算,我们认为农村居民的人均预防性财富持有量大约为3千元,占人均金融财产的34%左右；城市居民的人均预防性财富为9千元,占人均金融财产的20%左右。因此,不管是从城乡居民人均持有的预防性财富绝对量来看,还是从预防性财富占金融财产的相对比重来看,结论都认为预防性储蓄是导致中国城乡居民消费不足的重要原因之一。第6章从预防性储蓄动机和不确定性两个方面研究了影响中国居民预防性财富积累的主要因素。首先,通过检验不同收入水平的居民的预防性储蓄动机,本文发现消费者的预防性储蓄动机强弱与其收入水平相关,收入水平越高的居民的预防性储蓄动机强度越弱。其次,利用2003年第1季度至2012年第3季度的时间序列数据检验了投资收益不确定性对于城市居民预防性储蓄的影响,结果发现消费者确实对投资收益不确定性较为敏感,且相较于股市,利率市场的不确定性对消费者的预防性储蓄动机有着更强的促进作用。具体而言,同样强度的收益率风险增加所引起的消费者的人均消费支出增长量的波动在利率市场下大约为股票市场的40倍。最后,根据2000-2010年城市居民分类消费支出的省级面板数据检验了消费者对于各种不确定性因素的谨慎程度,结果发现城市居民的消费支出对于各项支出不确定性的敏感程度要大于其对收入不确定性的敏感程度,且在各项支出不确定性因素中,医疗保健支出不确定性和居住消费支出不确定性对于消费者储蓄行为的影响最为显著。第7章提出了降低城乡居民预防性储蓄的一些政策建议。根据前文的计量结果,我们认为可以从居民收入、投资收益、财产安全和社会保障四个方面入手弱化居民的预防性储蓄需求。在制定具体的方案时,要认识到城乡居民之间又各自具有其特殊性。对于城市居民,预防性储蓄动机相对较弱,其预防性财富积累主要是由于居民所面临的不确定性较大引起的,因此我们主要是通过各种措施来降低其不确定性；对于农村居民,不仅面临着较大的不确定性,而且由于收入水平较低,其预防性储蓄动机较强,所以既要降低其面临的不确定性,还要通过提高收入水平降低其预防性储蓄动机强度。最后一章总结了本文的主要研究结论和不足之处,指出了未来的研究方向。通过对中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的实证研究,本文得出以下结论：中国城乡居民持有较多的预防性储蓄是我国居民消费需求不足的重要原因,我们应该通过降低城乡居民所面临的劳动收入、投资收益、教育支出、住房支出、医疗支出等方面的不确定性因素来弱化其预防性储蓄需求。虽然城市居民的预防性储蓄水平更高,但是这并不意味着政府公共政策应当向城镇居民倾斜。必须注意到,在中国特有的城乡二元结构下,农村居民的绝对收入水平和消费水平仍远远低于城市居民,其预防性储蓄动机更强,预防性储蓄占总储蓄的比重也更高。因此,政府应当进一步完善农村社会保障体系,打破城乡二元结构,推进城镇化建设,提高农村居民的消费水平,消除城乡差异。这不仅将释放大量城乡潜在的消费需求,有利于解决长期困扰我国的居民储蓄超常增长的问题,也有利于经济发展和社会稳定。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the persistent and extraordinary growth of Chinese residents' savings and how to crack the predicament of the Chinese high saving rate has become a widespread concern of all circles. Since the uncertainty is the normal of the transition period, the preventive saving theory in the literature of the study of the Chinese resident's savings is of great concern. Although most of the literature has proved that the resident has the preventive saving behavior, it is the main reason why the preventive saving is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents and the main factors that affect the resident's preventive saving, which is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents. We're not completely clear. Therefore, on the basis of the existing literature, this paper focuses on the above three problems with a focus on the study of preventive savings of Chinese residents. The specific contents of each section are as follows: The first chapter is the introduction section, mainly introduces the research background and significance of the article, the study thought and framework of the article, and the innovation of the article Chapter 2 provides an overview of the literature, and has made a contribution to the formation and development of the theory of preventive savings. A review is made on the existing conditions of the motive of preventive saving, the checking of the motive of preventive saving, the explanation of the saving of the residents and the decomposition of the uncertainty, etc. And points out that it is necessary to further deepen the research direction in the study of the preventive saving of Chinese residents, so as to lead out the main research of this paper. The task is to be carried out. Chapter 3 deals with the theory of preventive savings. First of all, the concept of uncertainty is described and the word uncertainty is defined in this paper. Then, the consumer's consumption decision-making behavior is introduced briefly under the condition of uncertainty, and the expected utility maximization theory is used as the decision-making behavior of consumers under the condition of uncertainty. On this basis, the mathematical reasoning and geometry are used to illustrate the uncertainty as to the consumer's savings. Finally, the paper analyzes the current uncertainty of the urban and rural residents in China during the transition period, and points out that the preventive saving theory has the potential to be in China. The applicability of Chapter 4 is to the prevention of urban and rural residents This paper, based on the analysis of the relative prudent coefficients of most of the literature, is of the opinion that the absolute discretion is the index to check the strength of the consumer's preventive savings, especially in the comparison of the preventive savings motive between different consumers. This paper, based on the data of the provincial panel of 2000-2010 under the assumption of the CARA-type utility function, has tested the preventive savings motive of the urban and rural residents of China based on the data of the provincial panel in 2000-2010, and compared the preventive measures of the urban and rural residents. The result shows that both urban and rural residents have significant preventive savings motivation, and the preventive savings motivation of rural residents is stronger, which is about the city There is a 1.5-fold increase in the population. It is clear that, although the experience in this chapter is of the view that there is a preventive savings motivation for both urban and rural residents in China, this does not mean that preventive savings are the result of a high level of urban and rural residents in China The main reason for saving is that, as compared with the existence of a preventive savings motivation for urban and rural residents in China, we are more concerned about the amount of preventive savings of urban and rural residents in China The accumulation of preventive wealth. Chapter 5 further studies the extent to which preventive savings account for China under the uniform theoretical framework and sample data of the same period According to the consumer's cross-period consumption decision-making model, the preventive property accumulation function of the consumer under the uncertainty condition is solved, and the wealth accumulation function is then combined with the reality and the economic theory. The values of the various parameters are assigned to obtain the estimated value of the per-capita preventive wealth of the urban and rural residents and the preventive wealth in the urban and rural areas According to the estimates in this chapter, we believe that the per capita preventive wealth of rural residents is about $3,000, accounting for about 34 per cent of the per capita financial property; the per capita preventive wealth of urban residents is $9,000, accounting for gold per capita Therefore, in the view of the absolute quantity of the preventive wealth held by the urban and rural residents, or from the relative proportion of the preventive wealth to the financial property, the conclusion is that the preventive saving is the result of the consumption of the urban and rural residents in China. One of the most important causes of the shortage. Chapter 6 studies the influence of the Chinese residents from two aspects of the motive and the uncertainty of preventive savings First of all, by examining the motive of preventive savings for residents of different income levels, this paper finds that the motivation of the consumer's preventive savings is related to the income level, and the higher the income level is. The weaker the preventive savings motivation. Secondly, using the time series data from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2012, the effect of the uncertainty of the investment income on the preventive saving of urban residents is verified, and the result shows that the consumer does not know the investment income. More sensitive, and the uncertainty of the interest rate market is more sensitive to the consumer's preventive savings than in the stock market In particular, the fluctuation of the per-capita consumption expenditure increase of the consumer caused by the increase of the yield risk of the same intensity is under the interest rate market About 40 times the stock market. Finally, according to the provincial panel data for urban residents' classified consumption spending,2000-2010, the consumer is tested for a variety of The degree of caution of the uncertain factors is that the consumption expenditure of the urban residents is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the expenditure and is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the income. in that uncertain factor of expenditure, the uncertainty of health-care expenditure and the uncertainty of living consumption expenditure are for consumers The effect of saving behavior is the most significant. Chapter 7 puts forward the reduction of the urban and rural residence According to the above-mentioned measurement results, we think it is possible to enter from the four aspects of resident income, investment income, property security and social security To reduce the need for preventive savings of the population, and to recognize the urban and rural areas in the formulation of specific programmes As for urban residents, the motive of preventive savings is relatively weak, and the accumulation of preventive wealth is mainly due to the uncertainty of the residents, so we mainly reduce their uncertainty through various measures, and to the rural residents It is not only faced with great uncertainty, but also because of the low income level, the preventive saving motivation is strong, so it is not only to reduce the uncertainty facing it, but also to improve the income water In the last chapter, the main conclusions and conclusions of this paper are summarized. The paper points out the future research direction. Through the empirical study of the preventive saving behavior of the urban and rural residents in China, the following conclusions are drawn: China's urban and rural residents hold more preventive savings, which is an important reason for the shortage of the resident's resident consumption in our country, and we should The method has the advantages of reducing the labor income, the investment income, the education expenditure, the housing expenditure, the medical expenditure and the like faced by the urban and rural residents The factors of uncertainty are used to weaken the demand for preventive savings. Although the level of preventive savings for urban residents is higher, it is not intended to The public policy of the government should be inclined to the urban residents. It is important to note that the absolute income level and consumption level of the rural residents are still far lower than that of the urban residents under the unique urban and rural dual structure of China, and the preventive saving motivation of the rural residents is more Therefore, the government should further improve the rural social security system, break the dual structure of the urban and rural areas, and advance the construction of the urbanization. The consumption level of high rural residents and the difference between urban and rural areas will be eliminated. This will not only release a large amount of potential consumption demand in urban and rural areas, but also help to solve the long-term problem of the growth of the resident's savings in our country.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1

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