有效需求不足还是有效供给不足——新常态下经济波动因素的识别与分析
发布时间：2019-06-20 00:42
【摘要】：科学测算经济波动的来源是宏观调控的基础。文章针对中国的实际经济背景,应用Cover(2006)对BQ分解的改进,估计了一个包含实际产出和价格总水平的结构向量自回归模型,将经济结构性冲击分解为供给冲击和需求冲击,分解结果和样本期内中国宏观经济运行特征基本吻合。通过对分解结果的分析,发现样本期内中国总供给冲击平均值为负,总需求冲击平均值为正。因而当前中国经济结构性矛盾中,总供给是矛盾的主要方面,实施供给侧改革具有一定的合理性。供给侧改革的本质是生产过程的改革,"三去一降一补"是供给侧改革的重要抓手。但是人力资本无疑是生产诸要素中至关重要的,因而在全面深化改革的背景下,供给侧改革的长期目标应该是通过改革促进人力资本升级,促进生产力提升。
[Abstract]:Scientific calculation of the source of economic fluctuations is the basis of macro-control. According to the actual economic background of China, this paper estimates a structural vector autoregression model containing actual output and total price level by using the improvement of BQ decomposition by Cover (2006). The economic structural shock is decomposed into supply shock and demand shock, and the decomposition results are basically consistent with the characteristics of macroeconomic operation in China during the sample period. Through the analysis of the decomposition results, it is found that the average value of total supply shock in China is negative and the average value of total demand shock is positive during the sample period. Therefore, in the current structural contradiction of China's economy, the total supply is the main aspect of the contradiction, and it is reasonable to implement the supply-side reform. The essence of supply-side reform is the reform of production process, and "three goes, one drop, one supplement" is an important starting point of supply-side reform. However, human capital is undoubtedly very important among the factors of production, so under the background of deepening the reform in an all-round way, the long-term goal of supply-side reform should be to promote the upgrading of human capital and the promotion of productivity through reform.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;河南师范大学商学院;南京大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“贸易转型背景下我国技术进步偏向性的碳排放效应研究”(15CJ2040)
【分类号】：F124
[Abstract]:Scientific calculation of the source of economic fluctuations is the basis of macro-control. According to the actual economic background of China, this paper estimates a structural vector autoregression model containing actual output and total price level by using the improvement of BQ decomposition by Cover (2006). The economic structural shock is decomposed into supply shock and demand shock, and the decomposition results are basically consistent with the characteristics of macroeconomic operation in China during the sample period. Through the analysis of the decomposition results, it is found that the average value of total supply shock in China is negative and the average value of total demand shock is positive during the sample period. Therefore, in the current structural contradiction of China's economy, the total supply is the main aspect of the contradiction, and it is reasonable to implement the supply-side reform. The essence of supply-side reform is the reform of production process, and "three goes, one drop, one supplement" is an important starting point of supply-side reform. However, human capital is undoubtedly very important among the factors of production, so under the background of deepening the reform in an all-round way, the long-term goal of supply-side reform should be to promote the upgrading of human capital and the promotion of productivity through reform.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;河南师范大学商学院;南京大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“贸易转型背景下我国技术进步偏向性的碳排放效应研究”(15CJ2040)
【分类号】：F124
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