业绩预告与前期准确性的市场反应研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 16:26

【摘要】：会计信息作为投资者了解公司情况的主要依据，在资本市场上起着至关重要的作用。维护信息的公平公正、提高信息效率是保护投资者的关键，业绩预告作为年报的有益补充，旨在缓解年度报告时滞性带来的信息不对称，，保护投资者利益。现有的研究通常认为业绩预告具有一定的信息含量，能带来市场反应，但业绩预告始终是管理层单方面披露出来的，未经过外部第三方的审计，因此预告可信度就值得怀疑。公司前期的预告行为会传递出管理层预告能力与预告信誉的信号，投资者是否能根据公司前期预告准确性调整当期预告可信度的预期，并做出反应是一个值得研究的问题。本文以我国A股上市公司2009年-2012年符合条件的898个年度业绩预告为样本，利用SPSS及Eviews统计软件，通过事件研究及回归分析的方法检验我国股市业绩预告的市场反应以及前期业绩预告的准确性对当期业绩预告市场反应的影响。研究结论表明，业绩预告具有信息含量，能带来市场反应。预告为好消息的公司在预告发布的前后一定时间内有显著为正的异常报酬率，预告为坏消息的公司在预告发布前后一定时间内有显著为负的异常报酬率。进一步的，本文引入公司前期预告准确性这一因素，以公司过去两年业绩预告的平均偏差为预告准确性衡量标准，考察公司前期预告准确性对预告的市场反应的影响，结果显示，对于当期预告为好消息的公司，前期预告准确性对当期的市场反应有影响，前期预告偏差率大，对当期预告反应的削弱效应强，说明投资者能在公司当期预告的基础之上，通过前期预告准确性而对公司预告可信度做修正，进而影响到股票市场的反应。而对于预告为坏消息的公司，前期预告准确性对当期预告的市场反应没有显著影响，投资者仅对公司当期业绩下滑这一预告信息做出反应，而不会综合考虑前期预告的准确性。这一实证结果表明，公司业绩预告的确向资本市场传递了有用的信息，同时前期预告准确性会影响当期预告的市场反应程度。鉴于在我国的资本市场上，投资者会透过公司前期预告行为评判公司当期预告是否可信，并做出一定程度的反应，这提醒管理层在进行业绩预告时应本着谨慎的态度，而不是为追求短期既得利益披露不实的预告。对于证券监管部门而言，应加强监督，关注公司业绩预告披露质量，对不实披露制定有效的处罚措施，以此保障投资者利益，确保证券市场有序运行。
[Abstract]:As the main basis for investors to understand the company, accounting information plays an important role in the capital market. The key to protect investors is to maintain the fairness and fairness of information and to improve information efficiency. As a beneficial supplement to the annual report, the performance forecast aims to alleviate the information asymmetry caused by the delay of annual report and protect the interests of investors. The existing research usually thinks that the performance forecast has certain information content and can bring market reaction, but the performance forecast is always disclosed by the management unilaterally, and has not been audited by the external third party, so the credibility of the forecast is doubtful. The pre-forecast behavior of the company will send the signal of the management's forecasting ability and reputation. Whether the investor can adjust the forecast of the forecasting credibility according to the accuracy of the pre-forecast and make a response is a question worth studying. In this paper, we use SPSS and Eviews statistical software to sample 898 annual performance forecasts of A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2012. Through the methods of event study and regression analysis, the paper examines the market reaction of stock market performance forecast and the influence of the accuracy of early performance forecast on the market reaction of current performance forecast. The results show that performance forecasting has information content and can bring about market reaction. Companies with good news have significantly positive abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement, and companies with bad news have significantly negative abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement. Furthermore, this paper introduces the factor of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast, taking the average deviation of the company's performance forecast as the criterion of the accuracy of the forecast in the past two years, to investigate the influence of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast on the market reaction of the forecast. The results show that for companies with good news in the current period, the accuracy of the advance forecast has an impact on the market reaction in the current period, and the deviation rate of the advance forecast is large, and the weakening effect on the current forecast response is strong. It shows that the investors can modify the credibility of the company through the accuracy of the advance forecast on the basis of the current forecast of the company, and then affect the reaction of the stock market. For the company with bad news, the accuracy of the advance forecast has no significant effect on the market reaction of the current forecast. Investors only react to the forecast information of the company's current performance decline, and do not consider the accuracy of the advance forecast comprehensively. The empirical results show that the performance forecast does convey useful information to the capital market, and the accuracy of the advance forecast will affect the market reaction degree of the current forecast. In view of the fact that in the capital market of our country, investors will judge whether the company's current forecast is credible or not and make a certain degree of response through the company's pre-forecast behavior, which reminds the management to be cautious when making the performance forecast. Instead of disclosing false forecasts in pursuit of short-term vested interests. To the securities supervision department, we should strengthen the supervision, pay close attention to the quality of the company's performance forecast disclosure, and make effective punishment measures for the false disclosure, so as to protect the interests of the investors and ensure the orderly operation of the securities market.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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