华谊兄弟投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-04-11 14:52

本文选题：华谊兄弟 + 投资价值　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：国民日益增长的精神文化需求以及文化产业的特殊性,决定了文化产业将会是国民经济的新动力。影视行业作为文化产业的一个重要细分行业,在收入推动、技术跨越、内容更新、渠道扩展的文化消费需求增长的背景下,影视行业也迎来了蓬勃的发展。影视企业也越来越受到投资者的关注。对影视企业进行投资价值分析成为了必然之势。2013年,华谊提出了 “去电影化”的概念,认为华谊不能只做电影,而是需要执行新的IP战略,进一步完善以影视娱乐为支撑的原创IP驱动互联网娱乐和品牌授权娱乐的全娱乐性产业链。但是,华谊兄弟作为影视企业的重要一员,在执行新的IP战略的同时,似乎没有跟上行业快速发展的脚步,引起了投资者的关注。本文主要从两个方面,对华谊兄弟的投资价值进行研究。一方面,以定性的宏观行业分析作为基础,以盈利为核心,通过对盈利能力、增长性、稳定性、现金保障能力四个方面财务指标的构建以及考虑影视企业内部要素对盈利质量的影响,从而建立符合影视行业上市公司特征的盈利质量评价体系,然后对华谊兄弟的盈利质量进行具体分析,从而分析华谊兄弟的投资价值。另一方面,从价值创造的角度出发,将杜邦分析体系以及预测期期末市净率引入剩余收益模型,将客观的会计信息与企业价值评估相结合,对华谊兄弟进行内在价值评估,并且结合对华谊总市值以及股票走势的分析,检验该模型的解释能力,从定量上对华谊兄弟的投资价值做出解释。结果表明,该模型对企业内在价值的解释能力较强,经过分析发现华谊兄弟2015年末存在企业价值被高估的现象,可在2016年股价走势持续下降中体现出来,并且根据对华谊的盈利质量分析,其IP战略执行的效果不佳,仍然停留在概念层面,不利于公司的长期发展。所以就目前的情况来看,笔者认为华谊兄弟不具有投资价值。
[Abstract]:The increasing spiritual and cultural needs of the people and the particularity of the cultural industry determine that the cultural industry will be the new power of the national economy.Film and television industry as an important subdivision of the cultural industry, in the context of income promotion, technological leapfrogging, content updating, channel expansion of cultural consumption demand growth, film and television industry also ushered in a vigorous development.Film and television enterprises are also getting more and more attention from investors.In 2013, Huayi put forward the concept of "deconvolution", believing that Huayi should implement a new IP strategy instead of just doing movies.Further improve the original IP-driven Internet entertainment and brand-authorized entertainment full entertainment industry chain supported by film and television entertainment.However, Huayi Brothers as an important member of the film and television enterprises, in the implementation of the new IP strategy, it seems to have failed to keep up with the pace of rapid development of the industry, attracted the attention of investors.This paper studies the investment value of Huayi Brothers from two aspects.On the one hand, on the basis of qualitative macro-industry analysis, with profitability as the core, through the profitability, growth, stability,The construction of financial indexes in four aspects of cash security ability and the consideration of the influence of internal factors of film and television enterprises on the quality of profits, so as to establish a profit quality evaluation system in line with the characteristics of listed companies in the film and television industry.Then, the profit quality of Huayi Brothers is analyzed, and the investment value of Huayi Brothers is analyzed.On the other hand, from the perspective of value creation, the paper introduces the DuPont analysis system and the price-to-book ratio at the end of the forecast period into the residual income model, and combines objective accounting information with the enterprise value evaluation to evaluate the intrinsic value of Huayi Brothers.Combined with the analysis of market value and stock trend, this paper tests the explanatory ability of the model, and quantitatively explains the investment value of Huayi Brothers.The results show that the model has a strong ability to explain the intrinsic value of an enterprise. It is found that the value of Huayi Brothers was overvalued at the end of 2015, which can be reflected in the declining stock price trend in 2016.According to the analysis of Huayi's profit quality, the effect of IP strategy implementation is not good, and still stays at the concept level, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the company.So on the current situation, I think Huayi Brothers do not have investment value.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：J943;F832.51;F275

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