基于计算实验的技术创新风险传导与扩散研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 19:07

  本文选题：技术创新风险 + 风险传导与扩散　； 参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于受到08年全球金融危机的冲击,我国经济增长速度逐渐放缓、下行压力持续增大,"创新驱动"成为我国应对经济发展新常态的有效途径而高收益、高风险是技术创新的两个显著特征。高额的经济收益推动着企业实施技术创新、吸收外部新技术,是技术创新扩散的内在动力而技术创新扩散是其促进经济增长的实现途径;同时,各种不确定性因素的影响使它又具有高风险的特点。技术创新的扩散为风险的扩散提供了可能,一旦技术创新风险随着技术创新的扩散在市场上大范围传播,这必将影响整个市场的正常运行进而影响我国经济社会的可持续发展。因此,深入了解技术创新风险传导与扩散的机制具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文在梳理相关研究文献的基础上总结了技术创新风险传导的影响因素、特点和模式,基于复杂网络理论、扩散理论和个人决策理论从过程的角度提出了两阶段技术创新风险传导模型。它将风险的传导与扩散分为两个阶段:技术创新传导与扩散和技术创新风险传导与扩散,通过构建企业的决策规则、交互规则以及风险转移规则实现对技术创新风险传导与扩散过程的逻辑抽象。文章运用Multi Agent的建模方法在Anylogic软件上实现了这一理论的计算实验模型,通过4组仿真实验研究了技术创新类型、技术创新局部趋同程度、企业异质性和政府干预政策对其传导与扩散过程的影响机制。通过对计算实验结果进行分析总结,文章认为企业局部协作网络结构是影响技术创新风险能否大范围扩散的关键因素,而技术创新类型、技术创新局部趋同程度、企业异质性是通过影响企业局部协作网络结构及其叠加范围和风险在局部协作网络内的传导速度来影响风险的传导与扩散过程,政府干预政策则通过直接影响社会网络中企业外部风险的传导、间接影响技术创新负的网络外部性来影响相关风险的传导与扩散过程。
[Abstract]:Due to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic growth rate of our country has gradually slowed down, and the downward pressure continues to increase. "Innovation driving" has become an effective way for our country to cope with the new normal of economic development. High risk is two remarkable characteristics of technological innovation. The high economic benefits push enterprises to implement technological innovation and absorb new external technologies, which is the internal motive force of technological innovation diffusion, which is the way to promote economic growth. The influence of all kinds of uncertain factors makes it have the characteristic of high risk. The diffusion of technological innovation provides the possibility for the diffusion of risk. Once the risk of technological innovation spreads in a large scale with the diffusion of technological innovation in the market, it will affect the normal operation of the whole market and then affect the sustainable development of our country's economy and society. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to deeply understand the mechanism of risk transmission and diffusion of technological innovation. This paper summarizes the influencing factors, characteristics and modes of risk transmission of technological innovation, based on the theory of complex network. Diffusion theory and individual decision theory put forward a two-stage risk conduction model of technological innovation from the perspective of process. It divides the transmission and diffusion of risk into two stages: transmission and diffusion of technological innovation and transmission and diffusion of risk of technological innovation. Interaction rules and risk transfer rules realize the logical abstraction of technological innovation risk transmission and diffusion process. This paper uses the modeling method of Multi Agent to realize the computational experimental model of this theory on Anylogic software. Through four groups of simulation experiments, the types of technological innovation and the degree of local convergence of technological innovation are studied. The influence mechanism of enterprise heterogeneity and government intervention policy on its conduction and diffusion process. Through the analysis and summary of the results of the calculation experiment, the paper thinks that the network structure of local cooperation is the key factor to influence whether the risk of technological innovation can be spread on a large scale, and the type of technological innovation, the degree of local convergence of technological innovation, Enterprise heterogeneity affects the process of risk transmission and diffusion by influencing the local cooperative network structure and its superposition scope and the conduction velocity of risk in the local cooperative network. The government intervention policy affects the transmission and diffusion of related risks by directly influencing the transmission of external risks in social networks and indirectly influencing the negative network externalities of technological innovation.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F273.1
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本文编号：2088840