基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 11:35

本文关键词：基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择研究　出处：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的持续快速增长，在加速工业化和城市化进程中，资源和环境压力不断加剧，严重制约着经济社会的可持续发展。如何节能减排，保持经济可持续发展，已成为中国一段时期内所面临的严峻挑战。环保投资作为影响污染排放的最主要影响因素之一，是实现节能减排的重要手段。环保投资额的投入量过小，则可能达不到减排要求；投入额过大，则会浪费财政支出，同时影响经济发展。因此，选择能够满足政府规划目标的环保投资方案，并形成相应政策建议具有一定的现实意义。本学位论文由五章构成。第一章为绪论，阐述了基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择研究科学问题的性质、研究背景和研究意义，综述了关于环保投资路径选择的研究现状。第二章为基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择的原理，概述了本研究中所采用的研究原理。第三章是基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择的方法与思路，详细说明了模型的构建方法与思路。第四章是绿色产业规划中环保投资路径选择模型的建立，在大连市“十二五”绿色产业规划的框架下，根据大连市2005-2011年环保投资和化学需氧量排放量数据建立大连市“十二五”时期环保投资路径选择模型，并提出了相关政策建议。本文的主要工作： (1)利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对环保投资进行预测，通过模型遴选确定环保投资与污染物排放量的函数关系式，对环保投资与污染物排放量进行情景分析，建立基于情景分析的环保投资路径选择模型。 (2)根据大连市2005-2011年环保投资和化学需氧量排放量数据，建立大连市“十二五”时期环保投资路径选择模型，研究表明：转型情景是大连市环保投资的最佳发展路径。本文的主要创新与特色： (1)通过拟合精度对比，从备选模型中遴选出最优的环保投资与污染物排放量函数关系式，，避免了人为确定的主观随意性。 (2)在设置惯性、转型、弱干桢和强千顼4种情景时，通过将不同情景与环保投资增长率以及相应政策建议关联，在确定最优环保投资发展路径的情况下，得到了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and rapid growth in China economy, accelerating industrialization and city modernization, resources and environmental pressures intensified, seriously restricting the sustainable development of economy and society. How to save energy and maintain sustainable economic development, has become a serious challenge to Chinese period faces. Environmental investment as one of the main influencing factors effect of pollution emissions, is an important means to realize energy saving and emission reduction. Amount of environmental protection investment is too small, it may not reach the emission reduction requirements; investment amount is too large, it would be a waste of fiscal expenditure, while the impact of economic development. Therefore, the government investment project selection to meet environmental planning goals, and the formation of the corresponding policy that has a certain practical significance.
This thesis consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, elaborated the environmental protection investment path scenario analysis choose the nature scientific research based on the research background and significance, summarizes the current situation of research on selection of environmental protection investment path. The second chapter is the principle of selection of environmental protection investment path based on scenario analysis, summarizes the research principle used in this study. The third chapter is the methods and ideas of environmental protection investment path selection based on scenario analysis, a detailed description of the construction methods and ideas of the model. The fourth chapter is the establishment of environmental protection investment road green industry planning path selection model, in the city of Dalian, "12th Five-Year" green industry planning framework, according to the data investment in environmental protection and COD emissions of 2005-2011 years in Dalian City, Dalian City, the establishment of the "12th Five-Year" period of environmental protection investment path selection model, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions Yee.
The main work of this article is:
(1) use grey GM (1,1) model to predict the environmental investment. Through the selection of the model, we can identify the functional relationship between environmental investment and pollutant emissions, analyze the situation of environmental investment and pollutant emissions, and establish the environmental investment path selection model based on scenario analysis.
(2) according to the data of environmental protection investment and chemical oxygen demand emissions in Dalian in the past 2005-2011 years, the environmental investment path selection model of Dalian during the "12th Five-Year" period was established. The research shows that transition scenario is the best development path of Dalian's environmental investment.
The main innovations and features of this article are:
(1) by comparing the fitting accuracy, we choose the optimal function relationship between environmental investment and pollutant emissions from the alternative model, avoiding the subjective arbitrariness determined by man.
(2) the transformation in the setting of inertia, weak and strong over thousands of dry frame 4 scenarios, the different scenarios and environmental protection investment growth rate and the corresponding policy recommendations, in determining the optimal environmental protection investment development path under the condition of the corresponding policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.48;X324

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