中国外汇储备与房地产价格关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 02:03

本文选题：外汇储备 + 房地产价格　；参考：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的经济建设实现了跨越式发展。随着经济开放程度的日益增强,我国对外进出口贸易迅速扩张。进入21世纪以来,我国对外贸易呈现飞速增长态势,随之而来的是外汇储备规模实现同步增速。与1990年首次达到并突破100亿美元的外汇储备规模相比,进入21世纪的十几年来,我国外汇储备规模实现直线上升式增长：2000年末我国外汇储备规模达到1655.74亿美元；2004年以51.25%的增幅成为21世纪外汇储备规模增长的新拐点；尽管接下来的几年来外汇储备增长率呈现平稳递减的发展势头,但是每年的规模增长量都是巨大的；2006年2月底中国大陆的外汇储备总额为8536.72亿美元(不包括港澳的外汇储备),首次超过日本,位居世界经济体第一；2011年,我国外汇储备总额31811.48亿美元,突破3万亿大关。所以,我国外汇储备适度规模问题已然成为当今热议的研究课题之一。与此同时,伴随着我国经济的快速发展,国内房地产市场也呈现了增速发展的态势。2004年,房地产市场表现出强劲的增长势头,增速一度达到17.76%,之后开始呈现较为平稳的增长。经历过2008年金融危机的冲击,房产价格出现21世纪以来的首次下滑现象,不过这种情况在2009年以23.18%的增速出现逆转。随后这几年保持比较良好的增长势头。本文首先梳理了国内外对外汇储备与房地产市场的研究成果,进行分类总结。其次引入了外汇储备与房地产关系的传导机制分析,为接下来分析我国外汇储备与房地产价格之间的关系奠定了理论基础。在实证检验部分,选取了六个研究变量(外汇储备、房屋销售价格指数、货币供给量、消费物价指数、城镇居民人均可支配收入与对外贸易依存度)通过脉冲响应分析和格兰杰因果关系检验研究了外汇储备与房地产价格之间的关系。脉冲响应结果表明，外汇储备和房地产价格之间是符合理论部分外汇储备到房地产价格传导机制分析的,在长期内外汇储备与房地产价格之间存在稳定持续的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验结果表明,外汇储备与房地产价格之间也是符合外汇储备与房地产价格关系的传导机制分析的,并且根据实证结果可以得出判断,外汇储备在滞后2-5期是房地产价格的格兰杰原因。最后,梳理总结本文的全部结论。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic construction has achieved leapfrog development. With the increasing degree of economic opening, China's foreign import and export trade is expanding rapidly. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's foreign trade has shown a rapid growth trend, followed by a synchronous increase in the scale of foreign exchange reserves. Compared with the scale of foreign exchange reserves of US $10 billion reached and broken through for the first time in 1990, in the last decade of the 21st century, At the end of 2000, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves reached 165.574 billion US dollars, and the increase of 51.25% in 2004 became a new inflection point for the growth of foreign exchange reserves in the 21st century. Despite the steady decline in the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves over the next few years, But the annual growth is huge; mainland China's foreign exchange reserves totalled $853.672 billion at the end of February 2006 (excluding reserves in Hong Kong and Macao, which for the first time overtook Japan as the world's largest economy; 2011). China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.181148 trillion US dollars, surpassing the 3 trillion mark. Therefore, the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves has become one of the hot research topics. At the same time, with the rapid development of China's economy, the domestic real estate market has also shown the trend of growth. In 2004, the real estate market showed a strong growth momentum, the growth rate once reached 17.7667, and then began to show a more stable growth. After the 2008 financial crisis, property prices fell for the first time in the 21st century, but reversed at 23.18 percent in 2009. The following years to maintain a relatively good growth momentum. In this paper, the foreign exchange reserves and real estate market research results, classified summary. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of the relationship between foreign exchange reserve and real estate is introduced, which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the relationship between foreign exchange reserve and real estate price. In the empirical test part, we select six research variables (foreign exchange reserve, housing sales price index, money supply, consumer price index, consumer price index). Based on impulse response analysis and Granger causality test, this paper studies the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices. The impulse response results show that the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism from foreign exchange reserves to real estate prices, and there is a stable and persistent equilibrium relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices in the long run. Granger causality test results show that the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices is also consistent with the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices. Foreign exchange reserves lag 2-5 period is the real estate price Granger reason. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F299.23

【参考文献】