“一带一路”下中国企业对外直接投资竞争决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 05:35

本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：破坏性竞争　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国“走出去”步伐的加快,中国对外直接投资取得了显著成绩,中国企业越来越重视在全球范围内优化资源配置。“一带一路”作为中国重要的开放型经济战略,更为中国企业对外直接投资注入了动力和活力。但是,在亚太地区日渐成为全球政治经济博弈的重点和热点地区的情形下,“一带一路”战略被美日欧等发达国家视为对现有国际经济秩序的挑战,他们将其视为中国与发达国家对抗的工具。中国走出去企业必然会面临各种制衡和壁垒,由此,在海外投资本身就面临诸多不确定性的背景下,企业面临的第三方破坏性竞争博弈问题尤为突出。尤其是,近年来日本在东南亚、南亚国家的破坏性干预,俘获、压制将会更加频繁和激烈。因此,在“一带一路”战略背景下,必须深入分析存在投资竞争国企业破坏性竞争的情形对中国企业对外直接投资决策的影响。此外,由于“一带一路”沿线国家大都为非发达经济体,部分国家的政局动荡,企业投资面临的不确定性增强,因此,研究企业投资于沿线非发达经济体与其他地区发达经济体时投资策略的差异也具有一定的现实意义。基于此,本文在分析了中国企业对外直接投资发展及分布的基础上,又进一步分析了在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资现状及分布情况,探寻了中国企业对外直接投资面临的问题,尤其是在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资面临的挑战。并在对外直接投资决策理论的框架下,以实物期权模型为基础分别构建了垄断条件下以及竞争情形下中国企业的对外直接投资决策模型。同时,根据所建模型进行仿真模拟,分析了不同情况下企业的对外直接投资策略。研究发现,在垄断条件下,当企业获得了投资机会并对项目进行投资时,则不必在传统的投资决策理论中要求的触发点上进行投资,可以将投资推迟至最佳临界值。同时,企业对外直接投资所面临的风险和不确定性越大,投资的期权价值越大,从而企业会延迟执行期权,延长投资时机。而企业投资净收益率的增大,会使企业持有期权的机会成本增大,导致企业提前执行期权,缩短投资时机。此外,企业投资于沿线非发达经济体比投资其他地区发达经济体时,投资的期权价值更大,企业会延长投资时机。在竞争情形下,来自其他企业的破坏性竞争行为会对投资母国企业的投资决策产生影响。当破坏性竞争从无到有,且随着破坏性竞争出现可能性的增大,投资项目价值的临界值以及投资的期权价值越来越低;当存在破坏性竞争时,随着破坏程度不断增强,投资项目价值的临界值以及投资的期权价值会变得更小,企业由此会缩短投资时机,减少等待的的时间,加速投资。最后,基于以上结论本文为“一带一路”战略背景下中国企业重塑海外投资空间、动态调整竞争战略提供了相应的对策建议,以引导中国企业对外直接投资的健康发展。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's "going out" step, China's foreign direct investment has made remarkable achievements, and Chinese enterprises are paying more and more attention to optimizing the allocation of resources worldwide. "Belt and Road" is China's important open economy strategy. More Chinese enterprises' outward direct investment (OFDI) has injected impetus and vitality. However, With the Asia-Pacific region increasingly becoming the focus and hot spot of the global political and economic game, the "Belt and Road" strategy has been regarded as a challenge to the existing international economic order by developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. They see it as an instrument of confrontation between China and the developed world. Chinese companies that go out are bound to face checks and balances and barriers, thus, against a backdrop of uncertainty about foreign investment itself. In particular, Japan's destructive intervention in Southeast Asia and South Asian countries in recent years will be more frequent and intense. Against the background of Belt and Road's strategy, it is necessary to analyze in depth the influence of the destructive competition of enterprises in the country of investment competition on the foreign direct investment decision of Chinese enterprises. Due to the fact that most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" route are non-developed economies, and the political situation in some countries is volatile and the uncertainty of enterprise investment is increasing, therefore, It is also of practical significance to study the differences of investment strategies between non-developed economies and other developed economies along the route. Based on this, this paper analyzes the development and distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Chinese enterprises. It also further analyzes the current situation and distribution of investment in the countries along "Belt and Road", and explores the problems faced by Chinese enterprises in foreign direct investment. Especially in the context of the challenges faced by the countries along the route of "Belt and Road", and within the framework of the OFDI decision theory, On the basis of real option model, the decision models of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Chinese enterprises under monopoly and competition are constructed, and the simulation is carried out according to the established model. This paper analyzes the foreign direct investment (OFDI) strategies of enterprises under different conditions, and finds that under monopoly conditions, when enterprises obtain investment opportunities and invest in projects, It is unnecessary to invest at the trigger point required in the traditional investment decision theory, and the investment can be postponed to the best critical value. At the same time, the greater the risk and uncertainty faced by OFDI, the greater the option value of the investment. As a result, the enterprise will delay the execution of the option and prolong the investment opportunity. The increase of the net rate of return on the enterprise investment will increase the opportunity cost of holding the option, leading to the early execution of the option and shortening the investment opportunity. When firms invest in non-developed economies along the route than in developed economies in other regions, the option value of investment is greater, and firms will prolong their investment opportunities. Destructive competition from other firms can have an impact on investment decisions made by home firms. When destructive competition begins from scratch, and as the likelihood of destructive competition increases, The critical value of the investment project value and the option value of the investment project become lower and lower; when there is destructive competition, the critical value of the investment project value and the option value of the investment project become smaller as the degree of damage increases. This will shorten the investment opportunity, reduce the waiting time and accelerate the investment. Finally, based on the above conclusion, this paper is to reshape the overseas investment space of Chinese enterprises under the "Belt and Road" strategic background. The dynamic adjustment of competition strategy provides corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to guide the healthy development of Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F279.2;F125

【参考文献】