阿拉山口铁路货运量预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 01:28

本文选题：货运量预测 + SWOT分析　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路货运量是确定铁路交通基础设施建设规模的主要依据,货运量预测结果的合理性、可靠性直接影响铁路工程项目的投资和效益,对制定未来铁路运输发展战略、合理利用资源、充分发挥铁路运输设施的效益都有着重要的意义。论文在参考国内外有关货运量预测文献的基础上,阐述了铁路货运量预测原理、方法和步骤,对灰色预测、指数平滑、线性回归模型在货运量预测中的应用进行了研究和分析,并将多个模型组合起来进行变权重组合预测,克服了单一预测模型在铁路货运量预测中的局限性,提高了预测的准确性。结合研究区域铁路口岸货运量实际情况,分析优劣势和机会、威胁,进行SWOT分析、建立SWOT矩阵,探讨出铁路口岸的未来发展战略,以实现预测铁路货运量的目的,为研究区域铁路口岸运输业发展提供决策提供依据。本论文共六个部分。第一部分阐述了论文的研究背景及意义、研究目的和研究内容,并对国内外货运量预测的研究进展进行归纳和总结;第二部分为研究区域概况,介绍了阿拉山口铁路口岸的地理位置和发展情况,并在此基础上分析了当前铁路口岸存在的问题;第三部分分析了影响进出口货运量波动的相关因素,包括口岸邻国之间的政治经济关系、与相邻国家的内外资源互补情况、产品生命周期及石油管道影响等等;第四部分是介绍SWOT方法并根据影响货运量相关因素进行SWOT分析口岸适应内外环境、抓住机会发展的战略和策略,列出分析矩阵,进而探讨出研究区域铁路口岸的未来发展战略;第五部分是铁路货运量预测模型综述,对灰色预测模型、指数平滑模型、一元线性回归模型的特点及计算过程进行介绍和分析,使用每个模型对口岸货运量进行计算和预测,并将这些模型进行变权重组合对货运量进行预测分析得出结果;第六部分是本文结论和展望,对本论文的计算和分析提出结论,并对所用分析和预测方法的不足之处提出了改进方向。
[Abstract]:The quantity of railway freight is the main basis for determining the scale of railway transportation infrastructure construction. The rationality and reliability of the forecast result of freight volume directly affect the investment and benefit of railway project, and make the development strategy of railway transportation in the future. It is of great significance to make rational use of resources and give full play to the benefits of railway transport facilities. On the basis of referring to the domestic and foreign literatures on freight volume forecasting, the paper expounds the principle, method and procedure of railway freight volume prediction, and studies and analyzes the application of grey forecasting, exponential smoothing and linear regression model in freight volume forecasting. Several models are combined to carry out variable weight combination forecasting, which overcomes the limitation of single forecasting model in railway freight volume prediction and improves the accuracy of prediction. Combined with the actual situation of regional railway port freight volume, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities, threats, SWOT analysis, establishes SWOT matrix, discusses the future development strategy of railway port, in order to achieve the purpose of forecasting railway freight volume. It provides a basis for decision-making on the development of regional railway port transportation industry. This thesis consists of six parts. The first part describes the research background and significance of the paper, research purposes and research content, and summarizes the research progress of domestic and foreign freight volume forecasting; the second part is the general situation of the research area. This paper introduces the geographical position and development of Alashankou railway port, and on this basis analyzes the problems existing in the current railway port, the third part analyzes the related factors affecting the fluctuation of import and export freight volume, It includes the political and economic relations between the neighboring countries, the complementation of internal and external resources with neighboring countries, the product life cycle and the influence of oil pipelines, etc. The fourth part is to introduce SWOT method and SWOT analysis according to the factors affecting freight volume to adapt to the internal and external environment, seize the opportunity to develop the strategy and strategy, list the analysis matrix, and then explore the future development strategy of the regional railway port; The fifth part is a summary of railway freight volume forecasting model. The characteristics and calculation process of grey forecasting model, exponential smoothing model and monadic linear regression model are introduced and analyzed. Each model is used to calculate and forecast the port freight volume. And these models are combined with variable weight to forecast the freight volume. The sixth part is the conclusion and prospect of this paper, and the conclusion of this paper is put forward. At the same time, the improvement direction of the analysis and prediction method is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U294.13

【相似文献】