贵州省能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 22:18

本文关键词：贵州省能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长研究　出处：《贵州财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从工业革命开始之后的200多年以来,人们在享受经济不断高速发展带来的丰硕成果的同时,也对自然资源和生态环境造成了严重破坏。我国是世界上能源消费规模最大的国家之一,二氧化碳等温室气体的排放规模更是已经达到世界之最,如何寻求低碳环保的发展方式,实现经济、社会和生态环境相协调的可持续发展,已经成为摆在我们面前的一个亟待解决的课题。贵州省是我国西南地区一个内陆省份,经济发展水平较低,产业结构业也亟待优化,存在不少高污染高耗能高排放的“三高”企业,给当地的生态环境带来不同程度的破坏。本文将具体分析贵州省近年来能源消费、碳排放和经济增长的内在联系和影响因素,为贵州省实现经济、社会和生态环境协调发展的相关决策提供科学依据。本文在总结了可持续发展理论和国内外相关领域研究文献的基础上,首先对贵州省的能源消费、碳排放和经济增长在过去十几年中的演变情况做出较为详细的统计分析,接着用线性回归方程模拟出它们之间具体的内在联系,并对未来的发展趋势进行预测。结果发现贵州省经济增长和能源消费呈正相关,和碳排放呈负相关,在经济增长和能源消费以及经济增长和碳排放之间都存在着双向因果关系,而且能源EKC曲线和碳排放EKC曲线拟合结果都符合倒“U”形状,其拐点将分别在2034年和2037年到达。不过在研究期内,贵州省剔除了价格因素的的实际经济增长速度总体上要慢于能源消费增长速度和碳排放增长速度,大部分时间经济增长和能源消费与碳排放都处于挂钩状态,说明贵州省经济发展给资源和环境都带来巨大的压力。本文最后用灰色关联分析法和LMD指数分解法分析出贵州省能源消费和碳排放的主要影响因素,并用因子分析法综合评价了贵州省自2000年以来的可持续发展水平,发现贵州省能源消费最大影响因素是高能耗行业,碳排放的最大影响因素是能源的使用效率,说明贵州省高能耗行业的发展是能源消费量逐年上升的最大推力,而能源使用效率的提高是碳排放强度逐渐下降的主要原因。另外贵州省近年来可持续发展水平基本上一直处于上升态势,说明贵州省整体的经济社会发展是良好稳定的。在理论和实证研究结果的基础上,本文最后给出了如下建议：第一,提高产业层次,优化产业结构。第二,开发新能源,优化能源结构。第三,保证城市绿化面积,同时在各地加大植树造林的力度。第四,提倡低碳经济和生活方式,通过广泛宣传提高民众环境保护意识。此外,由于贵州省在能源EKC曲线和碳排放EKC曲线都处于左半段,说明在未来一个阶段的发展能源和环境的压力都会不断增大,因此贵州省要加快产业结构转型和生产技术的提高,贯彻实施节能减排政策,促使上述两个拐点都提前到来。
[Abstract]:From the beginning of the industrial revolution 200 years, people are enjoying the benefits brought the rapid development of economy at the same time, also caused serious damage to the ecological environment and natural resources. China's energy consumption scale is one of the largest countries in the world, carbon dioxide emissions is bigger has reached the world. How to seek the way of development, low carbon environmental protection to achieve sustainable development of economic, social and ecological environment, has become an urgent task in front of us. Guizhou province is China's southwestern region of an inland province, the low level of economic development, industrial structure industry also needs to be optimized, there are many high pollution and high energy consumption and high emission of the "three high", to the local ecological environment bring different degrees of damage. This paper analyzes the Guizhou Province in recent years, energy consumption and carbon emissions. The internal relations and influencing factors of economic growth provide scientific basis for Guizhou province to realize the relevant decision-making of the coordinated development of economy, society and the ecological environment.
Based on the theory of sustainable development and the domestic and foreign relevant research in the field of literature, firstly, the energy consumption of Guizhou Province, made a detailed statistical analysis of carbon emissions and economic growth in the past ten years of evolution, then use linear regression equation to simulate some inherent relationships between them, and predict the future trend of development. The results showed that Guizhou Province Economic Growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions were positively correlated, negatively related, there is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and carbon emissions, and the fitting results of EKC curve and energy carbon emissions are in line with the EKC curve inverted "U" shape, the inflection point will arrive in 2034 and 2037 respectively. However, in the study period, Guizhou Province, excluding the price factor of the actual economic growth rate is slower than the overall energy consumption of Fei Zeng Long growth rate and carbon emission rate, most of the time, economic growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions are linked to state that the economic development of Guizhou province has brought enormous pressure to resources and environment. The grey correlation analysis method and LMD index decomposition method to analyze the main influencing factors of Guizhou Province, energy consumption and carbon emissions by at the end of this paper. And using the factor analysis method in comprehensive evaluation of the level of sustainable development in Guizhou province since 2000, found that the factors of energy consumption in Guizhou province is the biggest influence of high energy consumption industries, the factors that affect carbon emissions is the use of energy efficiency, indicating the development of Guizhou province energy industry is the biggest thrust energy consumption increased year by year, and the energy the use efficiency is the main reason of carbon emission intensity decreased gradually. In addition, the level of sustainable development in Guizhou Province in recent years basically been in a rising trend, said The overall economic and social development of Guizhou province is good and stable.
Based on the results of theoretical and empirical research, this paper finally gives the following suggestions: first, to improve the level of industry, optimize the industrial structure. In second, the development of new energy, optimizing energy structure. Third, to ensure the city greening area, and increase afforestation efforts in the country. Fourth, advocate low carbon economy and way of life, improve the public awareness of environmental protection through extensive publicity. In addition, the Guizhou province in the energy of EKC curve and EKC curve of carbon emissions in the left half, indicating the development of energy and environment in the next stage of the pressure will continue to increase, therefore, Guizhou province should accelerate the transformation of industrial structure and the improvement of production technology, the implementation of energy saving the emission reduction policy, two inflection points are ahead.

【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F206;F205;F127

【参考文献】