广西城镇化与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 02:25

本文选题：广西　切入点：城镇化　出处：《广西大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化是经济社会发展的历史必然,也是现代化的必由之路和重要标志。现阶段,广西正处在经济社会发展的重要时期,加快推进城镇化跨越式发展对于广西经济发展社会进步而言变得越来越重要,研究城镇化与经济增长之间的互动关系是十分有意义且是非常必要的。文章主要运用计量经济学的理论与方法,先对城镇化率和人均GDP两个变量进行协整检验,发现两者是协调发展的关系；接着进行格兰杰因果检验,发现经济增长能促进城镇化发展,反之,效果不明显；通过建立向量自回归模型分析,发现实证结果与格兰杰检验的基本吻合。经济增长能促进城镇化分析其原因可能是：经济增长刺激农民收入及消费水平提高后通过需求和就业结构变动促进城镇化进程；城乡二元结构的特点使得发展极度不平衡,城市对农民有巨大的吸引力；更宽松的户籍管理政策、三次产业结构的转变以及企业在城市规模聚集效应的影响下向城市迁移等因素都能促进城镇化率上升。城镇化未能有效推动经济增长分析其原因可能是：广西的城镇体系结构不合理,城乡分割的户籍管理制度,缺乏长远的城镇规划,城市管理不科学,基础设施建设落后,土地利用率低,推进城镇化渠道狭窄等。第四部分,提出提高广西城镇化水平和促进经济增长的政策和建议：通过加速工业化、优化产业结构、技术进步和加快产业集聚等来促进经济增长,以经济增长带动城市化发展；构建科学合理的城镇体系；科学编制城镇发展总体规划,加强对城市基础设施和公共服务设施的建设,提升科学管理城市的水平；改革现有的户籍制度,统筹城乡发展；深化其他制度改革,消除制约跨越发展的体制障碍。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the historical necessity of economic and social development, as well as the only way and an important symbol of modernization. At this stage, Guangxi is in an important period of economic and social development. It is more and more important to accelerate the development of urbanization by leaps and bounds for the economic development and social progress of Guangxi. It is very meaningful and necessary to study the interactive relationship between urbanization and economic growth. This paper mainly uses econometrics theory and method, first carries on the cointegration test to the urbanization rate and the per capita GDP two variables, discovers that both are the coordinated development relations, then carries on the Granger causality test, Found that economic growth can promote the development of urbanization, on the contrary, the effect is not obvious; through the establishment of vector autoregressive model analysis, It is found that the empirical results are consistent with the Granger test. Economic growth can promote urbanization. The reasons may be as follows: economic growth stimulates farmers' income and consumption and promotes the urbanization process through the change of demand and employment structure; The characteristics of the urban-rural dual structure make the development extremely unbalanced, the cities have great attraction to the peasants; the more relaxed household registration management policy, The transformation of three industrial structures and the migration of enterprises to cities under the influence of urban scale agglomeration can promote the increase of urbanization rate. The reasons why urbanization fails to promote economic growth effectively are:. The structure of urban system is unreasonable, Part 4th of the household registration management system, which is divided between urban and rural areas, lacks long-term urban planning, urban management is unscientific, infrastructure construction is backward, land utilization is low, and the channels for promoting urbanization are narrow, etc. Some policies and suggestions are put forward to improve the level of urbanization and promote economic growth in Guangxi: to promote economic growth by accelerating industrialization, optimizing industrial structure, technological progress and accelerating industrial agglomeration, so as to promote the development of urbanization with economic growth; Build a scientific and reasonable urban system, scientifically formulate the overall plan of urban development, strengthen the construction of urban infrastructure and public service facilities, improve the level of scientific management of the city, reform the existing household registration system, and coordinate the development of urban and rural areas; We will deepen the reform of other systems and eliminate the institutional obstacles that restrict leapfrogging development.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

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