能源消费和技术进步对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 01:26

本文选题：能源消费　切入点：技术进步　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：：2013年初,国务院正式出台《能源发展“十二五”规划》,该规划综合考虑资源、技术、环境、经济等因素,提出我国2015年能源发展的目标。目前我国处于经济转型时期,在技术进步水平难有大的改进前提下,单靠生产要素量的增加对经济总量的边际报酬是递减的。因此要保证经济健康平稳发展,就应当在依靠技术进步提高生产率的同时,促进能源、资本、劳动等生产要素与经济协调发展。本文从能源消费和技术进步两个视角出发,研究其对经济增长的影响,并针对我国目前在能源消费和技术进步方面存在的问题提出政策性建议。首先,从全国层面分析和研究了我国能源消费、技术进步与经济增长之间的关系。我国目前的能源消费状况还处在倒“U”形能源库兹涅茨曲线的左侧；我国的技术进步水平与发达国家相比尚有差距。基于协整理论和向量自回归模型进行了实证研究结果表明,经济增长同能源消费、技术进步之间存在协整关系。Granger因果检验表明,存在由能源消费、技术进步到经济增长的因果关系,而能源消费与技术进步之间的因果关系不太明确。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析表明,能源消费对经济增长的冲击并非是持久的,依靠能源消费拉动经济增长不具有可持续性；而技术进步对经济增长的影响是持久的。其次,基于省级面板数据分析了我国目前能源消费和技术进步水平的地区性差异。将能源视作与资本、劳动等类似的生产要素,构建扩展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,研究了资本、劳动、能源和全要素生产率(即广义的技术进步)对经济增长的影响。结果表明资本和劳动依然是重要的生产函数,而能源的产出弹性和贡献率则较小,并且存在地区间差异。技术进步对经济增长的贡献较大,仅次于资本,并且技术进步对经济增长的贡献率在中部地区达到最大,这可能是由于存在东部地区对中西部地区的“溢出效应”。此外,测算得到的全要素生产率在三大经济区域都出现下降趋势,这一方面是由于资本的贡献率一直呈现上升趋势,而劳动和能源的贡献率相对稳定；另一方面可能是由于总产出曲线是一条向上倾斜的S形曲线,在生产率提高缓慢时,随着经济总量的不断增加,各生产要素的边际产量是递减的,再加上2008年金融危机以来,我国经济状况处于结构调整和转型之中,经济增长的速度有所放缓,因此经济增长中能被“索洛残差”所解释的全要素生产率也有所降低。最后,在前几章研究的基础上,针对我国目前在能源消费和技术进步方面存在的问题提出了政策性建议。
[Abstract]:At the beginning of 2013, the State Council formally issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, which comprehensively considers the factors of resources, technology, environment and economy, and puts forward the target of energy development in China in 2015. At present, our country is in the period of economic transformation. On the premise that it is difficult to improve the level of technological progress, the marginal return of economic aggregate is reduced by increasing the quantity of factors of production alone. Therefore, in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of the economy, we should rely on technological progress to increase productivity at the same time. To promote the coordinated development of energy, capital, labor and other factors of production and the economy. This paper studies the impact of energy consumption and technological progress on economic growth, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the problems existing in energy consumption and technological progress in China. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption, technological progress and economic growth in China is analyzed and studied at the national level. The current situation of energy consumption in China is still on the left side of the inverted "U" shape energy Kuznets curve. Based on the cointegration theory and the vector autoregressive model, the empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and the Granger causality test shows that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. There is a causal relationship between energy consumption, technological progress and economic growth, but the causal relationship between energy consumption and technological progress is not clear. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth is not sustainable, and the impact of technological progress on economic growth is not sustainable. Secondly, based on the provincial panel data, this paper analyzes the regional differences in the current energy consumption and technological progress in China. Taking energy as a factor of production similar to capital and labor, this paper constructs an expanded Cobb-Douglas production function and studies capital and labor. The impact of energy and total factor productivity (that is, technological progress in a broad sense) on economic growth. The results show that capital and labour continue to be important production functions, while energy is less resilient and contributing to output. The contribution of technological progress to economic growth is greater than that of capital, and the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth is the largest in the central region. This may be due to the existence of the "spillover effect" of the eastern region on the central and western regions. In addition, the calculated total factor productivity has shown a downward trend in all three major economic regions, partly because the contribution rate of capital has been on the rise. The contribution of labor and energy is relatively stable; on the other hand, it may be that the total output curve is an upward S-shaped curve, and that when productivity increases slowly, as the total economic volume increases, Since the financial crisis of 2008, the economic situation in our country has been in the process of structural adjustment and transformation, and the rate of economic growth has slowed down. As a result, total factor productivity, which can be explained by Solow's residuals in economic growth, has also fallen. Finally, on the basis of the previous chapters, some policy suggestions are put forward in view of the problems existing in energy consumption and technological progress in China.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124;F426.2

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