资源环境约束下的金昌市经济增长与环境质量关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 04:26

本文选题：经济增长 + 环境质量　；参考：《兰州大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球变暖,人们开始反思经济增长的资源成本与代价的背景下,经济增长与环境质量之间的关系已成为近年来学术界探讨的热点话题。发达国家的发展史多以环境恶化为代价,其影响往往是不可逆的,摒弃“先污染、后治理”的发展模式,走可持续发展道路已经成为必然选择。因此,探讨经济增长与环境质量如何良性协调发展无疑具有理论和现实的双重意义。金昌市作为一座典型的资源型城市,经济的不断增长使得环境压力日益加重。因此,如何认识金昌市经济增长与环境质量之间的内在关系,将经济增长建立在环境质量持续改善的基础之上,科学制定经济社会发展规划,尽早步入经济增长与环境质量协调发展的可持续发展道路,成为当前金昌市亟待解决的重大课题。本文以金昌市1992-2011年的实际数据为样本,运用传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,对金昌市经济增长与环境质量的关系进行实证研究。在实证研究阶段,首先对金昌市经济发展趋势和环境质量状况进行评述；其次,选取工业废水排放量、工业废水中COD、工业废气排放量、工业SO2排放量、工业粉尘排放量、工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物产生量作为环境指标,对相关经济指标和环境指标进行曲线拟合并阐述其曲线特点,分析金昌市经济增长与环境质量变化的相关性；并在此基础上,提出相关建议措施。通过对金昌市经济增长与环境质量关系的实证研究得出以下结论： (1)近年来工业废水排放量呈现出良好的下降趋势,目前工业废水排放量刚经过正“U”型曲线的最低拐点,预测可能会有所上升;工业废水中COD排放量先呈现下降趋势,后急剧上升,目前工业废水COD排放量刚经过倒“N”型曲线的最高拐点,预测COD排放量可能出现下降趋势。 (2)工业废气排放量呈持续上升趋势,且并未到达倒“U”型曲线的良性拐点,预测将持续上升；工业废气中SO2排放量呈良好的下降趋势,目前实际排放量刚经过正“U”型曲线的最低拐点,预测将会有上升；工业废气中烟尘排放量短暂上升后持续下降,到达“N”型曲线最低拐点；工业废气中粉尘排放量与经济增长拟合参数较差,近年实际排放量基本无变动。 (3)工业固体产生量随经济发展持续增高,金昌市工业固体废物以综合利用和储存为主。
[Abstract]:In the background of global warming , people begin to reflect on the resource cost and cost of economic growth . The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality has become a hot topic in the academic circles in recent years . The development history of developed countries is often irreversible , and the development pattern of " first pollution and post - governance " has become the inevitable choice . Therefore , it is no doubt that the development of economic growth and environmental quality has the dual meaning of theory and reality .

As a typical resource - based city , Jinchang city has become an increasingly serious environment pressure . Therefore , how to understand the intrinsic relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Jinchang city , to set up economic growth on the basis of continuous improvement of environmental quality , scientifically formulate the economic and social development plan , enter into the sustainable development path of economic growth and harmonious development of environmental quality as soon as possible , and become a major problem to be solved urgently in Jinchang City .

Based on the actual data of Jinchang City from 1992 to 2011 , this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Jinchang city .
Secondly , the emission of industrial waste water , the discharge amount of COD , industrial waste gas , industrial SO2 emission , industrial dust emission , industrial dust emission and industrial solid waste generation amount in industrial wastewater are selected as environmental indexes , and the correlation between economic growth and environmental quality in Jinchang city is analyzed .
Based on this , the related suggestions are put forward .

Through an empirical study of the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Jinchang City , the following conclusions are drawn :

( 1 ) In recent years , the discharge of industrial wastewater shows a good decline trend , and the emission of industrial wastewater has just passed the lowest inflection point of the " U " curve , and the prediction may be increased ; the COD discharge in the industrial waste water firstly presents a downward trend and then rises sharply , and the COD discharge amount of the industrial wastewater has just passed the highest inflection point of the inverted " N " type curve , and the downward trend of COD discharge may be predicted .

( 2 ) The emission of industrial waste gas increases continuously , and does not reach the benign inflection point of the inverted " U " curve , and the prediction will continue to rise ;
The emission of SO2 in industrial waste gas shows a good decline trend . At present , the actual emission quantity has just passed the lowest inflection point of the positive " U " curve , and the prediction will increase ;
The soot emissions in the industrial waste gas continuously decrease after a brief rise , reaching the lowest inflection point of the " N " type curve ;
In the industrial waste gas , the fitting parameters of dust emission and economic growth are poor , and the actual discharge amount in recent years is basically unchanged .

( 3 ) The amount of industrial solid waste increases with the economic development , and the industrial solid waste of Jinchang City is mainly used and stored .

【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5;F127;F224

【参考文献】